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India-Pakistan
Hydrological warfare against Pakistan
2008-06-02
Prof Khurram Shahzad

“Water wars are not inevitable. It lies in our hands – and in our minds.”

It has been a venerable and established speculation among political experts that the world’s future wars will be fought over water, not oil. Where the whole world is fortunately lagging a bit behind for entering into this ill-fated era of ‘hydrological warfare’, it clearly seems that the subcontinent has perhaps surpassed the rest of the world with Indian courtesy. Now it has expediently forced again the region to slip into a new kind of fracas. Experts say it would be the era… in which rivers, lakes and aquifers become national security assets to be fought over, or controlled through surrogate armies and client states.
Posted by:john frum

#15  sorry, my desktop 'puter's crashed, so I'm making do with my less-favorite laptop.

Mexico can bite my ass over the Colorado River diversion. They send the New River back across the border with the highest concentrates of pollution: toxics, heavy metals, disease....virtually anything they can dump in it
Posted by: Frank G   2008-06-02 19:54  

#14  Under the Indus water Treaty, the waters of three entire rivers are reserved for sole Pakistani use. These must flow to Pakistan without any diversion by India for any use EXCEPT power generation.

Storage is strictly limited to that required for power and for silt clearing.

India cannot build dams for agricultural irrigation etc.

Robert McNamara's legacy to India and Pakistan from his time at the world bank.

Despite Pakistan having a smaller population, the waters were divided evenly, favoring Pakistan. Nehru agreed to this, thinking it an act of friendship that would bring peace.

Nehru was wrong on many things...
Posted by: john frum   2008-06-02 15:48  

#13  TW,
hummm.. damn I waz awaiting for a gud Frank G. come-back Zinnger ... so plz tell him about the thread..

I may regret it altogether as Mr. Frank is damn good!

And al-Aska Paul really haz some Hydrological Background..

...if my fly-ash Alzheimers permits!

/well Ima gonna read Yeaterday's newspaper as I forgots Yesterday's News....
Posted by: RD   2008-06-02 14:56  

#12  Ask Fred. Hamid Gul is a former Inter Service Intelligence Agency (ISI) chief, who threw in with the terrorists as soon as he retired.
Posted by: Glort the Elder4271   2008-06-02 14:44  

#11  One the other hand, ask the Mexicans what they think about the dams on the Colorado River and the tiny trickle of water that finally flows across the border.Dams not only generate electricity, but they make it easier to use the water for irrigation, industry, and population. That said, the Paki article is just uninformed BS. Improvement is not war against Pakistan and a shutoff of water is unlikely. What is more likely is a gradual diminution of water left to flow downstream as usage above the dam increases. This will lead to a gradual impoverishment of Pakland, but hey, in general, it is good to live upstream.
Posted by: RWV   2008-06-02 13:32  

#10  Agreed about the size of India's middle class, One Eyed Ulese1266. The fact that it's growing rapidly must be offset by the fact that it was so incredibly small, percentage-wise, to begin with. Nonetheless, a 50% decrease of fecundity amongst the poor is significant, and the indication of a trendline likely to continue downward...over the long term. Fewer children will eventually mean more investment in education and health care for each child, again in the long term. Short term the poverty situation will likely get worse, just because of sheer increase in raw numbers.

Mr. Wife never let me join him on his trips to India. He didn't think I would handle that reality well.
Posted by: trailing wife    2008-06-02 13:14  

#9  Indians are having fewer children.

Yes, middle class Indians are having fewer children. However, the middle class in India represent a much smaller percentage of the population than is seen here. The Villagers/Tribal's are still having lots of kids.

Even the poor masses, from what I understand, have a reduced birthrate compared to historical levels.

Yeah, down to 8 or 9 from 14 to 17 over the average child bearing years. That is not enough, especially when you consider that most of these people never get educated.

Been there, lived there...seen it. Wifes Indian.
Posted by: One Eyed Ulese1266   2008-06-02 12:08  

#8  Indians are having fewer children. It's been terribly fashionable among the growing middle class to have only one or two children, just like in the West. Even the poor masses, from what I understand, have a reduced birthrate compared to historical levels. If I weren't feeling lazy, I'd check the CIA world book on the subject.
Posted by: trailing wife    2008-06-02 11:39  

#7  Frankly it would be a GOOD THING if India just told the Pakis to have fewer children.

Frankly it would be a GOOD THING if India just told the uneducated Indians and illegal Bongs (Bangladeshis to have fewer children.
Posted by: Injun Elmuting8192   2008-06-02 09:54  

#6  The Monkey Wrench Gang moves east.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2008-06-02 09:52  

#5  Let's see those dumb ass muzzies use the old suicide bomb trick against 100 million tons of concrete.
Posted by: Hellfish   2008-06-02 08:35  

#4  Rantburg H20 Persons:

Al-Aska-Paul plz fill us in..

and our H20 Columnist Frank G. should have a wack at it too plz!

>:)

Damns store water, so Gul's f'n whining must have to do with a Paki shake down tactics.

Pakis are expert @ the protection rackets..

Frankly it would be a GOOD THING if India just told the Pakis to have fewer children.

And by inference fewer H20 NEEDS.

IIRC Right now the Stupid Un-Smart-Pakis have a Full-Court-Press Pro-Bazillion Children Campaign a'going-on, supported by the G'D Paki-Gubmint..

Like let's expand The God Damn Ummah Thingy...
grrr
Posted by: RD   2008-06-02 07:35  

#3  Lt Gen (r) Hameed Gul has said that India has so far built 62 dams and hydro-electric units on Pakistani rivers to deprive Pakistan of water and render into a desert.

He said Pakistan was being deprived of water under an international conspiracy to conquer it. At this stage, some insane people were opposing construction of Kalabagh Dam in Pakistan, he added. He said that Shaukat AzizÂ’s influx in Pakistan was also part of the conspiracy as he formulated such policies, which put the country into crisis. He said that Shaukat Aziz created food shortage. He said the mujahideeen damaged Baglihar Dam and it could not be reconstructed.

Hameed Gul, however, warned that the mujahideen would damage all dams. Sindh Water Council Chairman Hafiz Zahoor-ul-Hassan Dahr said that when the dispute on water would not be resolved, there would be conflict between the two countries. He said, “India is not building dams under the Indus Water Treaty but on the Pakistani rivers.” He said that the food shortage would be forty per cent next year that would increase starvation in the country. He warned, “Pakistan can become Somalia and Ethopia,” he added.
Posted by: john frum   2008-06-02 06:56  

#2  Actually India and Bangladesh have a treaty regarding the sharing of the River Ganges water.

India and Pakistan also have a treaty and the World Bank neutral expert Lafitte has already dismissed most of the Pakistani technical objections to the Baghliar dam in his arbitration.

According to Lafitte, the Indian dams do not violate the treaty and are not for water storage or diversion for usage. They are for hydropower only.

Every single Indian attempt to construct anything on the rivers has met Pakistani objections. This has delayed projects by years as teams study the projects and argue over details.

One of the justifications for the Pak jihad in Kashmir is control over the headwaters.

It appears the very idea that the headwaters of its rivers begin in Indian territory is something the Pakistanis cannot reconcile themselves to. No matter the technical points, guarantees from the World bank, treaties with India etc, the facts on the ground profoundly upset the Pakistanis. I suspect their view of themselves as proud Muslim warriors is tarnished by the very idea of kaffir control the sources of their rivers.
Posted by: john frum   2008-06-02 06:43  

#1  That is a one sided article. The 20,000,000 Bengalis who live illegally in India, testify to that country's benevolence to its revolting neighbors.
Posted by: McZoid   2008-06-02 04:55  

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