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| Terror Networks |
| 'US can defeat Al Qaeda with strategy change' |
| 2008-07-29 |
| The United States can defeat Al Qaeda if it relies less on force and more on policing and intelligence to root out the terror group's leaders, a new study contended on Monday. "Keep in mind that terrorist groups are not eradicated overnight," said the study by the federally-funded Rand Research Centre, an organisation that counsels the US Defence Department. The report said that the use of military force by the US or other countries should be reserved for quelling large, well-armed and well-organised insurgencies, and that American officials should stop using the term "war on terror" and replace it with "counter-terrorism". "Terrorists should be perceived and described as criminals, not holy warriors, and our analysis suggests there is no battlefield solution to terrorism," said Seth Jones, the lead author of the study and a Rand political scientist. "The US has the necessary instruments to defeat Al Qaeda, it just needs to shift its strategy," Jones said. Nearly every ally, including Britain and Australia, has stopped using "war on terror" to describe strategy against the group headed by Osama Bin Laden. Based on an analysis of 648 terrorist groups that existed between 1968 and 2006, the report concluded that a transition to the political process is the most common way such groups end. But the process, found in 43 percent cases examined, is unlikely with Al Qaeda, which has a broad, sweeping agenda, the report said. The second most common way that terrorist groups end, seen in about 40 percent of the cases, is through police and intelligence services apprehending or killing key leaders, Jones said. Police are particularly effective because their permanent presence in cities helps them gather information, he said. By contrast, the report said, military force was effective in only 7 percent of the cases. Jones said, "Even where we found some success against Al Qaeda, in Pakistan and Iraq, the military played a background or surrogate role. The bulk of the action was taken by intelligence, police and in some cases, local forces." "We are not saying the military should not play a role, but unless you are talking about large insurgencies, military force should not be the tip of the spear," he said. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #15 The United States can defeat Al Qaeda if it relies less on force and more on policing and intelligence to root out the terror group's leaders, a new study contended on Monday. Duh! It would be nice if groups such as the Rand Research Centre, could keep up with the latest COIN manual by Amos/Petraeus and go to chapter 6 which says better than Rand are able to articulate in their report, what the use of policing should be . |
| Posted by: tipper 2008-07-29 23:10 |
| #14 Apparently the tribals in that part of the world have been merrily killing each other since the time of Alexander the Great of blessed memory. So it isn't likely the current festivities would result in extinction any time soon, even without field trips across the border. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2008-07-29 22:42 |
| #13 Well RJ, it would be nice if they self-immolate, but I'm not going to wait around for that to happen. The Afghan Army is coming along, but it is a slow development. Note that this is a national entity in a place that has a rather tenuous grasp on the concept of nationhood. I don't think they are going to be able to get the job done in a meaningful way anytime soon. Sadly, many of the issues that afflict the tribal belt also afflict Afghanistan. I hope I am wrong on this. That said, I do agree that the US must maintain pressure on miscreants in the tribal area. As others have noted, this is a tightrope walk as we need these areas and Pakistan in general as a logistic supply route. If that goes, we can kiss Afghanistan goodbye. |
| Posted by: remoteman 2008-07-29 19:32 |
| #12 Remoteman, I'm not so sure. The tribal area very well might kill itself at this point if there wasn't an obvious "other" there to unite them. I think it's time for the Afghan government to fight the good fight while the US moves elsewhere (Pakistan, or at least in and out of the border a few times). |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2008-07-29 16:44 |
| #11 Iraq is moving quickly to the win collumn. It will continue to strengthen and should be able to handle any internal AQ issues it confronts. All very good. But Afghanistan will remain hot for some time and that is where the new flypaper will be/is being laid. We all know that the tribal belt of Pakistan is a tribal hellhole that will be a regular source of islamo-nut cannon fodder. It will also be the primary convention locale for any AQI big turbans. We need to continue aggressive military operations inside Afghanistan combined with targeted strikes and wetwork operations in the tribal belt. I don't see anything but containment that is going to have a marked effect in that area (I don't see total war as an option). The tribes are far too stunted as a social construct relative to the rest of the world to hold out much hope for change (the islam infestation only makes things more intrasigient). So other than something akin to regional genocide, which I do not support in any way, containment seems the only near-term route possible. |
| Posted by: remoteman 2008-07-29 14:09 |
| #10 The police option is only realistic because Al Queda was defeated in Iraq and their worldview has been humiliated. To be honest if we keep up the military tempo we eventually will mistep (that is have a Democratic President) giving them the propaganda victory they are desperate for. We should start to stand down where it is possible and work behind the scenes and with spies and supporting insurgencies and proxies when we can. At least for a while, possibly four years or so. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2008-07-29 12:20 |
| #9 I don't know other Rantburgers but I for one would tend to distrust advice coming from an enemy country. |
| Posted by: JFM 2008-07-29 11:07 |
| #8 "Keep in mind that terrorist groups are not eradicated overnight," said the study by the federally-funded Rand Research Centre, One must wonder what this blinding flash of the painfully obvious cost the US taxpayer. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2008-07-29 10:13 |
| #7 Well, in a sense they are right. The foot soldiers and leaders of AQ have been killed/captured and Iraq proved that they can't stand up to US soldiers and terrorize the population. The flypaper strategy worked for us and AQ has to change, so what we did in Iraq most likely will not work again. However, though assassinations and good intelligence work, they can be finished off. I don't like the "Policing" term Rand uses, but if used more as "Policing" your house against vermin I can see why they used it. Hopefully the brain dead Morlocks in Washington get the fucking clue. I just have a really bad feeling that once Iraq is pacified and our troops pull out in 2010ish that the US will put its head back in the sand and let the hydra keep growing heads until we get another 9/11. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-07-29 10:13 |
| #6 Police? No. Intelligence and "wet work"? Yes. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-07-29 10:00 |
| #5 and could someone please tell me exactly how the police were going to arrest Osama in Afghanistan? This is the same kind of BS that worked so well during Clintoon's time. The world is not one big happy tranzi state where the UN can police everything as much as these sorts would like it to be thus. |
| Posted by: AlanC 2008-07-29 09:30 |
| #4 A thmbsucking Rand study being vetted by a Pakistani english language daily using British spellings. |
| Posted by: mhw 2008-07-29 09:03 |
| #3 How are we to do that without plunging the world into a 1929-style depression when the oil from Saudia Arabia and Iran are suddenly cut off at a time of peak sales by those countries? And how will we get supplies to NATO in Afghanistan when the only route from outside runs through Pakistan?I ask in the hope that you've developed enough expertise through your readings over the past two years to tease out some possibilities, because I haven't a clue. Thanks! |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2008-07-29 06:21 |
| #2 Go after the state sponsors ie Saudi Pakistan and Iran-The real Axis of evil!!!! |
| Posted by: Paul 2008-07-29 06:12 |
| #1 when did Rand become so pussified? |
| Posted by: Frank G 2008-07-29 06:03 |