#18 think about it this way: they have ways of stopping naval traffic:
1) Air attacks. Not a factor - the local air assets will sweep their AF in a matter of hours.
2a) Surface Combatants - again, conventiaonl USN will put these at the bottom within a hours, and close thier ports with damage to facilities within a day.
2b) RHIB and other small boats - LPH and the attack helis along with sea-search radars will put a very quick end to these. Peacetime ROE has made these appear ot be effective, but in a wartime ROE, they would be like flying a Cessna to fight F-16's. Dead in a hurry. Add in destruction of port facilities to these as well.
3) DE Subs and minisubs. Hard environment due to shallowsm but blasting the hell out of things with active sonar, as well as MAD and other detection assets can make life very very short for these boats. Submarines are more crew quality dependnat than jsut about any other ship type, and the ability of Iran to train and get the sea time needed for their crews is questionable. Plus they need to be far more autonomous than the top-down structure allows. Probably get 1-2 solid attacks off and die shortly thereafter. 3 day threat.
4) Anti-Ship Missles. 2-4 days at most. Theyhave to have targeting radars to fire them and provide initial guidance. HARM makes these radars have a very short lifespan. Infrared obervation (form various assets) makes the launchers vulernable to quick counterbattery from Tomahawks with ICM. And we've been developing IR launch detection for decades as part of the early warning system form satellites down to airbreaathing sensors. Plus a launch plume is a dead giveaway to an armed predator or Reaper, which can put a hellfire into the launcher. So 2-4 days is likely.
5) Mines. This is the real joker in the deck. They could lay these long before starting a war. Of all the delays for closure, this one would probably take the longest to clear. Open lanes with MCM ships and other MCM assets, sweep harbors. 4 days or so, maybe more depending on how effective the mines are and how much MCM we can bring to bear.
Which worries me the most? Mines. MCM has always gotten the short end of the stick in every navy, so we may get hurt by these more than by any other source. |
TEHERAN - Iran would easily be able to close the key oil shipping route of Strait of Hormuz if the country were attacked over its nuclear programme, the head of the Revolutionary Guards was quoted as saying on Monday. Iran has ‘the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz easily and on an unlimited basis,’ state radio quoted Revolutionary Guards commander-in-chief Mohammad Ali Jafari as telling a news conference.