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| No-Drill Stand Is A Dry Hole For Democrats |
| 2008-08-06 |
| By Lawrence Kudlow As John McCain and the GOP leaders nationalize the drill, drill, drill message, the Republican Party might conceivably be riding a summer political rally. The question of offshore drilling, along with expanded domestic energy production, has suddenly become the biggest political and economic wedge issue of this election. Is there a Republican tsunami in the making? According to the major polls, Sen. McCain has overcome a big deficit to pull even with Obama. Meanwhile, according to a Rasmussen survey, Democratic Party identification has slumped. As Republicans on the House floor shouted "vote, vote, vote" and "lower gas prices," the Democratic majority turned off the lights, cameras and microphones. Determined GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell offered unanimous-consent requests to vote on lifting the ban on deep-water exploration, and the Democrats objected. When McConnell asked Democrats if they'd overturn the ban at $4.50 a gallon, they replied "no." When he raised the price to $5, $7 and $10, they cried "no," "no" and "no." On the Stephanopoulos Sunday news show, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi underscored her refusal to allow a drilling vote. Asked about the Republican rebellion in the House, she said, "What you saw in the Congress this week was the war dance of the handmaidens of the oil companies." She went on to say, "We are spending all of this time on a parliamentary tactic, when nothing less is at stake than the planet, the air we breathe, our children breathe." Oh, really? Voters have a much different view. Polls suggest that two-thirds to three-quarters of the nation wants to drill. To wit, while a just-released Obama campaign ad attacks McCain as a tool of Big Oil, McCain has taken his first-ever lead in a Rasmussen tracking poll. There is a voter revolt going on, and it reminds me of the anti-tax rebellion that lifted Ronald Reagan into office 28 years ago. Is the conventional wisdom about to be swept away? As Republicans press home the drill, drill, drill message, might they pick up seats this year? And might the national clamor for a more realistic and balanced energy policy -- one that includes more oil, natural gas, clean coal, nuclear and the alternatives of wind, solar and cellulosic -- carry McCain to a convincing victory over Obama? Without even realizing it, the GOP drilling offensive has become a new contract with America. And it appears to be working. The public is putting aside global warming and choosing, instead, new-energy production, a stronger economy and more job creation. Voters want growth, not austerity. They want Ronald Reagan, not Thomas Malthus. And by resisting this grass-roots call, the Democratic Party is digging itself into one of the biggest political dry holes in history. New economic statistics highlight the damage done by the unprecedented oil-price shock. Only a year ago, real gross domestic product was growing at 4% to 5%. Then came the dramatic rise of energy prices and down came the economy. GDP contracted slightly late last year and rose a minuscule 0.9% in this year's first quarter. And although real growth picked up to nearly 2% in the second, that number is suspect since the government does not count surging import prices from food and energy. Wall Street blames everything on the housing slump and the subprime credit crisis. Of course, these are significant. But the drop in housing starts, sales and prices has been going on for nearly two years, without crunching down the economy. It's the oil shock that has brought us perilously close to a recession. Despite a slight rise in GDP, nonfarm corporate payrolls have declined seven straight months while private payrolls have fallen eight straight months. A year ago the unemployment rate was 4.5%. Today it's 5.7%. Topping it off, the inflation rate has climbed from 2% to 4% the past year. Right now, the recession call is still an open question. But the economic damage caused by skyrocketing energy prices is a no-brainer. When President Bush eliminated the executive moratorium on offshore drilling a month ago, effectively launching the drill, drill, drill offensive, oil was close to $150 a barrel. Since then, the barrel price has dropped to about $120 as futures-market traders anticipate a major shift in federal drilling policy. Over at the Intrade pay-to-play prediction market, the probability of an offshore drilling bill passing in 2008 is handicapped at 50%, up from 25% only a few days ago. Clearly, investors know market prices will move well before we see actual new energy supplies from offshore drilling. The likelihood of greater energy supply will incentivize those much-vilified traders to slash barrel prices much more, bringing relief at the pump and earning the gratitude of a whole nation. At the same time, those wrongheaded Democratic leaders, from Obama to Reid to Pelosi, will see their political fortunes plummet deep into bear-market territory. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #15 building codes across the country should mandate solar panels on the roofs of all new buildings That's a nice idea in the consistently sunny parts of the country, Ebbang Uluque6305, but it would be a waste of money in, eg. Buffalo, NY. Buffalo is the cloudiest city in the country, if I recall correctly, not to mention the roofs being snow-covered from Thanksgiving to April Fool's Day or so. How about if we go with, "Nothing everywhere but everywhere something"? Windmills should work nicely on the leeward side of Lake Erie... |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2008-08-06 19:27 |
| #14 bug-eyed botoxed bitch Love it. I told my boss if he'd let me telecommute it'd conserve energy but he won't let me do it. I bet if Congress gave him a tax credit for letting me telecommute he would. With a laptop on my nightstand I could do my work without ever getting out of bed. Hey, that'd save my energy too. Here's another thought: building codes across the country should mandate solar panels on the roofs of all new buildings be they residential, commercial or whatever. It should be required just like indoor plumbing with no exceptions. |
| Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305 2008-08-06 16:03 |
| #13 AP, send that message to John Bohner, the Republican House leader. He's one of the people spearheading the current House rebellion. His weblog is here |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2008-08-06 15:48 |
| #12 Drill here, drill now, and work our asses off to get off petroleum as a fuel by using electric, nuclear, wind, water, solar, geothermal, coal, etc. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-06 15:32 |
| #11 The Republicans have the issue. The dems are on the defensive. Now the Republicans have to get their heads out of their a$$es and define, communicate, and push their agenda. It is really not that hard. The issue is not just DRILL DRILL DRILL™. The issue is the vision of how this country will achieve its SUSTAINABLE energy independence. There are a multitude of energy sources and solutions, and that will change over time. I can see some simple graphs: the first step is education of the public. 1. Show where our nation's energy comes from and where it goes. Show where we are vulnerable in our energy supply. 2. Show a series of simple graphs where alternative sources of energy kick in and where petroleum's contribution goes down. 3. Show the timeline to achieve these goals. Tout the economic benefits. Show the people the BIG PICTURE. Not just the sexy stuff like windmills, solar. Get the public to buy into it. Find things, tangible things, that the public can do to make a difference a feel a part of the process. The optimist in me says that it can be done. The realist in me says that there is no hope that the republicans will seize the opportunity. Bottom line, someone has to do it. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2008-08-06 14:24 |
| #10 40% of increased world oil demand is from China alone. Now add a fast growing India to the demand side. There is no way the developed world can conserve enough to offset even China's, let alone the rest of the world's, energy demand. In the short term, we must produce more of what we consume and import less goods from other countries, while moving as fast as we can away from petroleum based transportation. |
| Posted by: ed 2008-08-06 13:35 |
| #9 Be sure to go to any "meetings" your local congresscritters are hosting and ask them WHY they are not in DC getting the jbo done, and delivering an energy bill. And sy "not just conservation, not jsut drilling, not just electric cars and nuclear power - but ALL of the above!" Remind them that we are sending $700 BILLION overseas for oil every year, and we need to become self sufficient and keep that money here for taxes and jobs instead of making the Saudis and Hugo Chavez rich. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-06 12:53 |
| #8 Don't tease. |
| Posted by: bigjim-ky 2008-08-06 12:34 |
| #7 A dry hole issue but also a public lynching issue for donk CongressCritters? |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2008-08-06 10:16 |
| #6 ...and I suspect the when the Fed extended 'emergency' borrowing to the banks, they simply displaced monies on their books committed to investment to their paper front agents and agencies engaged in speculation which had shifted to oil. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2008-08-06 08:36 |
| #5 Kudlow is disingenuously wrong about the relation of the housing crisis to oil prices. When the housing crisis came, the Fed chose inflation asits means of combating a decline in asset values to protect banks' balance sheets. As a result, the dollar tumbled. When the dollar falls, the price of oil will rise. A pox on Bernanke and Greenspan. This situation is aggravated by the increasing demand from China and India. But that pressure will grow consistently and gradually. It was the shock of the dollar falling because of the housing crisis that created this crisis. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-08-06 06:52 |
| #4 the closer we get to the election, the polls might just convince the Donks to dump that bug-eyed botoxed bitch. Since she looks surprised all the time, I expect to be disappointed in the "I'd like to see her face when that happens" category of schadenfreude. I just hope it's too late to get the smell of elitist watermelon politics out of the voter's noses /watermelon as in "green on the outside, red on the inside". No racist overtones were implied or meant. Gotta be clear with O'bama playing the race card on anyone who disagrees with him |
| Posted by: Frank G 2008-08-06 04:34 |
| #3 I think half of oil price hikes are due to concern about Congress's refusal to reverse course. W just gave them a prod with a sharp stick when he removed the executive ban on drilling and look what happened. The other half will be taken care of when we get a good energy policy implemented. And if we want to have the $$$ to implement this policy, we'd better drill now so that $$$ we need doesn't end up in the hands of terrorists and people who want to use it to gain power like Chavez by villifying the US and duping everyone into going along with their stupid plans. Nancy's gotta go. She's got some serious OCD and ODD problems. |
| Posted by: gorb 2008-08-06 04:05 |
| #2 Anyone want to argue against me and my positon weeks ago that somethgin as small as just removing the moratorium would take the top off the market and lower prices in the short term? Hmm? Some of you said it wouldnt, and you were as wrong as Nancy Pelosi. I told you so. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-06 02:37 |
| #1 I cringe the way how Kudlow talks. |
| Posted by: Thor Glineger4862 2008-08-06 01:09 |