Britain has begun negotiations with the government in Baghdad on a long-term military commitment to Iraq that UK officials say could leave significant numbers of UK troops in the country beyond next year.The Ministry of Defence envisages a possible longer-term relationship with the Iraqi military similar to the type that the UK has with other armed forces in the region, such as those of Oman or Jordan. Some officials are keen to counteract media reports that by the middle of next year substantially all British troops will be out of Iraq.
The government is hoping that next year conditions in Iraq will be right for a big cut in troop numbers from the 4,000 now based there. But after that, they say, Britain expects to retain a long-term role that could mean UK troops in Iraq would number in the hundreds or low thousands.
Officials say no decisions have been made, but the longer term roles for UK forces could include training Iraqi staff officers and non-commissioned officers for the army, and training the country's navy, marines and air force. The outcome also depends on the posture taken by the US, which -- if current security improvements in Iraq continue -- is also likely to reduce troop numbers in the country.
UK officials say it is possible that US troops may shift southward. This is in part because some troop contingents, including from Poland, have pulled out from regions south of Baghdad but also because US equipment being removed from the country will have to leave it from the south, either through the ports of Basra and Umm Qasr or through Kuwait.
Some of the UK's longer-term roles could potentially be performed outside Iraq. But once a British role had been decided, other decisions would ensue about how many troops would be needed to provide force protection and logistics, officials said. "There are some big ifs," one official said.
The main role for the 4,000 UK troops at present is to finish training the 14th division of the Iraqi army, where British troops are also embedded inside Iraqi operational units. The UK also expects to finalise shifting the airport at Basra over to Iraqi control, including the training of air traffic controllers so that they can operate the airport at night.
That could happen in the first half of next year, after which troop numbers could fall substantially.
The US is negotiating an agreement with the Iraqi government to provide legal authority for foreign troops to remain in the country after a United Nations mandate runs out at the end of this year. A sharp reduction in violence in Iraq since last year has led the Bush administration to talk of a "time horizon" for pulling US troops out of Iraq.