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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| A CZAR IS BORN: BAD VLAD WINS WAR, DUPES WEST & PROVES HE'S GENIUS |
| 2008-08-14 |
| Posting Besoeker's comment link to a Ralph Peters' article. Agree with every word. Can only add that Putin's Russia is structurally weak and extremely vulnerable to concerted action. THE Russians are alcohol-sodden barbarians, but now and then they vomit up a genius. Prime Minister - and now generalissimo - Vladimir Putin is Mother Russia's latest world-class wonder. Let's be honest: Putin's the most effective leader in the world today. That doesn't mean he's good news for anybody - not even for the Russians, in the long run. His ruthless ambition and gambler's audacity may end terribly. But, for now, give the devil his due: After a long string of successes, from his personal mastery of Russia's government and media to his coldblooded energy brinkmanship, Putin has capped his performance with a stunning success in Georgia. Not a single free-world leader currently in office can measure up to Czar Vladimir the Great. Following his turnaround of Russia from bankrupt kleptocracy to flush-with-cash autocracy, he's now openly determined to restore Moscow's old empire. And he's getting away with it. As a former intelligence officer, I'm awestruck by the genius with which Putin assessed the strategic environment on the eve of his carefully scripted invasion of Georgia. With his old KGB skills showing (he must've been a formidable operative), Putin not only sized up President Bush humiliatingly well, but precisely anticipated Europe's nonreaction - while taking a perfect-fit measure of Georgia's mercurial president. Putin not only knew what he was doing - he knew exactly what others would do. This is intelligence work at the hall-of-fame level. (For our part, we had all the intelligence pieces in our hands and failed to assemble the puzzle.) On the military side, the months of meticulous planning and extensive preparations for this invasion were covered by military exercises, disingenuous explanations - and maskirovka, the art of deception the Red Army had mastered. The Russians convinced us to see what we wanted to see. Equally as remarkable was the Kremlin's ability to lead the global media by the nose. (Oblivious to the irony, a BBC broadcast yesterday portrayed tiny, poorhouse Georgia as a propaganda powerhouse and Russia as an information victim - an illustration of the Russian propaganda machine's effectiveness.) From the start, every Russian ministry was reading from the same script (try to orchestrate that in Washington). Breaking off his phony play date with Bush in Beijing, Putin rushed back to the theater of war. Upon arrival, he publicly consoled "refugees" who had been bused out of South Ossetia days in advance. Launching the war's Big Lie, Putin deployed dupe-the-rubes code words, such as "genocide" and "response." Wearing his secret-policeman's stone-face, Putin blamed Georgia for exactly what his storm troopers were doing to the Georgians. And lazy journalists around the world served as the Kremlin's ad agency. Strategy and conflict hinge on character. Putin's character is ugly, but he's certainly got one: On the world stage, he comes across as a man among munchkins. When French President Nicolas Sarkozy flew in to Moscow to demand a cease-fire, Putin - busy with his war - couldn't be bothered. He fobbed Sarko off on Russia's play-pretend president. Sarko thought he was grandstanding as a statesman, but Putin saw him as a "useful idiot" (in Leninist parlance). Carla Bruni's husband got the cease-fire the twittering European Union demanded, all right. He returned to Paris holding in his hands a piece of paper that "guarantees peace in our time." Putin's thugs kept on killing. And they're still killing as I write. Putin makes promises blithely to make flies go away. But the promises are worthless. Russia's troops will find excuses to stay right where they are - or they'll fake a withdrawal, leaving behind "South Ossetian volunteers" from Russian airborne units. Want a straightforward indication of what the Russians intend? Putin's code-name for this operation is Chistoye Polye. Literally translated, that means "clean field." In military parlance, it means "scorched earth." The empire of the czars hasn't produced such a frightening genius since Stalin. |
| Posted by:ed |
| #19 Honestly, why not take a long term gamble here? Russia is a dying country (and Putin knows it). Either by Chinese invasion or simple suicide, Russia won't be the same country 20 years down the road. Putin's been pulling these shenanigans since several years ago (the poisoning of the Ukrainian president, and the rich guy in England). That didn't draw much attention from the world community, so why would an invasion of some country that most people think is the home of CNN, the Braves and Adult Swim? The bottom line, let's let Russia think he won this round, let him keep trying to rebuild his outdated military, then eventually when the ChiComs take Siberia, two equally evil powers can duke it out. |
| Posted by: MoreScotch4Me 2008-08-14 23:23 |
| #18 One additional comment... The eastern European countries will, no doubt, enact laws that could reduce the prospect that a minority can be consisting of holders of foreign passports (specifically the Russian minority... "you don't like it, you're free to leave!"). Discriminatory? Yewbetcha! But better be safe than sorry. |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-14 18:09 |
| #17 rjschwarz, what, are you insane? You want to apply logic to the EU concept? Heresy! ;-) |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-14 18:01 |
| #16 Interesting how everyone talks of Poland, Germany the UK and nobody has mentioned the EU. Shouldn't these nations be defending each other automatically because of the EU nonsense? I mean what's the point if not to ensure Poland is safe from invasion. Yeah I know Georgia's not a member of the EU. I'm pretty sure Poland is though, right? |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2008-08-14 17:23 |
| #15 Putin's plan was to start the war when the Iran action was imminent or in progress. Saaky crossed him with a pre-emptive assault on Tskhinvali. To what degree it was a Georgian initiative or a coordinated effort, hard to tell -- I tend to think that the coordination was more likely than not. (There is a lot of indications that this is precisely what happened. At some point when I've a bit of time, I may put it together for RB perusal). Putin can't use this stratagem again. It's been blown. Eastern Europe got their suspicion about Russian duplicity confirmed and will act accordingly. Chances for Putin to come with some brilliant strategy to reabsorb former satellites got just diminished substantially as the element of surprise is now lost. The facade is torn and naked truth is for all to see. On the economic front, a lot advantageous deals will be taken away and agreements canceled. Yea, brilliant, Pooty, brilliant! He lost big time. Thus spake Spike Uniter. |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-14 17:15 |
| #14 the immediate goal was to toss Saak out and get a friendly regime instead. That gives them effective control of the pipeline, it removes the annoyance of Saak, and more important it shows who is strong, that relying on the west is a mistake, and lots of other lessons they want to teach. If Georgia is badly hurt but Saak survives, the lessons are only half taught. Whether Saak WILL survive is something we dont know yet, and that we still may be able to influence. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-08-14 15:49 |
| #13 What still bugs me, is the unanswered question of “What were Putin’s goals?” and “Did he achieve them?” 1. Control over the BP pipeline? Epic fail. With US "humanitarian aid" in place, I think it's impossible for them to make another grab for it. 2. Absorption of Georgia? Possible fail. Time will tell on this one. He has weakened and trampled all over the independent nation. Will SO and Ahk. remain in his realm of control? More than likely. 3. Inviting the West to play “The Game” in order to ascertain strength, resolution and capabilities? Definite success. Although, he may have ‘misunderestimated’ the US and GWB. 4. Alienate Old Europe, New Europe, China, the US, NATO and the UN? Smashing success. :D I hear our sale of ABM systems is going through to Poland and now Turkey is shopping for some sales. It still doesn’t make sense that he would risk so much for so little gain. Maybe it is just “for show” with the homefolks and to consolidate his power base. *shrug* Also, I wish I knew how Iran and Israel play into this. (Yes I have some ideas, but my Tom Clancy/007 influenced mine has crazy visions of nukes going off in Saudi due to wahabbis) |
| Posted by: Anon4021 2008-08-14 15:26 |
| #12 I have to agree with LH. When there has been talk of cutting social bennies because of cost, that party is rapidly thrown out of office. The Europeans want their cradle-to-grave health care and they want the US to pay for their defense. If the US withdrew and became isolationist, a strong military country would conquer the rest of Europe with little problem. Unfortunately, that is the only way I can see the Europeans taking responsibility for their own defense is to forced to, or succumb to another power that will take their resources for its own use. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-08-14 15:11 |
| #11 elites? You think the populace will start rallying for more defense spending, higher taxes and or lower social services? I understand the idea that the euro elites are more 'left' than the electorates on issues like guns, death penalty, abortion, immigration. But I very much doubt they are to the 'left' of their peoples on defense spending. If they are ive seen no evidence of it. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-08-14 15:02 |
| #10 I doubt seriously that this will rouse Euro's elites out of their intellectual and moral torpor. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2008-08-14 14:58 |
| #9 the problem with that ZF, is that most of them cant stand up to Russia alone. Its a basic free rider problem. POland cant (probably) beat Russia. they need backup. Who? Why should UK do it, when germany could? Why should Germany do it when UK could (And when germany relies on Russian gas, and doesnt like the Poles anyway) Self reliance works for some things, not this. As hard as jawboning the Euros to spend more on defense is, I doubt that Russian victories and US withdrawl is really more effective. But this is academic as far as Georgia is concerned. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-08-14 14:45 |
| #8 I wonder how this will play out with Japan and our other allies. (Hello S. Korea..) |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2008-08-14 13:58 |
| #7 Equally as remarkable was the Kremlin's ability to lead the global media by the nose. Big deal. I got a six year old niece that could probably do that. |
| Posted by: tu3031 2008-08-14 13:56 |
| #6 I'm with Zhang on this. You will see a lot more military self reliance especially in middle Europe. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2008-08-14 13:54 |
| #5 Actually, I think the outcome is for the best. NATO and non-NATO members alike have learned that Uncle Sam won't always come riding to the rescue, so they'd better arm up or prepare to become provinces of whatever big power comes along. All of America's allies have learned that Uncle Sam won't use his big guns to help them settle territorial disputes to their advantage. And Russia has regained a little of its pride, and perhaps gotten a little something to salve the sting of being ignored over Kosovo. On this last point, only time will tell. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-08-14 13:37 |
| #4 Its easy to look good if pitted against the Euro-Flakes and a United States locked in a multi-generational war against Islamist fanaticism. |
| Posted by: Ptah 2008-08-14 13:19 |
| #3 George Bush said he looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul. He failed to say it was dark and evil. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2008-08-14 13:03 |
| #2 Hurrah, I'm a genius! Thank you for that bump to my self-esteem, Carl. ;-) |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2008-08-14 12:32 |
| #1 If assessing the strategic env correctly (Euro non-reaction, playing the world media, etc) is genius, than anybody has been paying even cursory attention to world events in the past decade is a genius. |
| Posted by: Carl in N.H. 2008-08-14 12:27 |