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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| New ME 'Cold War' As Syria Strengthens Military Alliance With Russia? |
| 2008-08-21 |
| Syria raised the prospect yesterday of having Russian missiles on its soil, sparking fears of a new Cold War in the Middle East. President Assad said as he arrived in Moscow to clinch a series of military agreements: "We are ready to co-operate with Russia in any project that can strengthen its security." The Syrian leader told Russian newspapers: "I think Russia really has to think of the response it will make when it finds itself closed in a circle." Mr Assad said that he would be discussing the deployment of Russian missiles on his territory. The Syrians are also interested in buying Russian weapons. In return Moscow is expected to propose a revival of its Cold War era naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus, which would give the Russian Navy its first foothold in the Mediterranean for two decades. A Russian resort on the Med? With a swanky O Club? I don't think so. Damascus and Moscow were close allies during the Cold War but the Kremlin's influence in the region waned after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yesterday's rapprochement raised the possibility that Moscow intends to re-create a global anti-Western alliance with former Soviet bloc allies. So, Russia re-aligning itself with a terrorist-sponsoring state? Bow howdy, never seen that before ... Syria and Israel recently confirmed they had been holding indirect talks to reach a peace deal after decades of hostility. Part of Syria's motivation was to break the international isolation it has suffered for its strategic alliance with Tehran. A closer alliance with a resurgent Russia could afford Mr Assad a way out of any binding commitment. Some Israeli analysts even fear that it could encourage Syria to try to take back the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967, by force. The Georgia conflict sparked a mocking speech with Cold War rhetoric by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, over the performance of Israeli-trained Georgian troops. One of the Israeli military advisers there was reserve Brigadier-General Gal Hirsch, who commanded a division in Israel's inconclusive war with Hezbollah in 2006, and who resigned his commission afterwards. "Gal Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost because of him," the Shia leader taunted. "Relying on Israeli experts and weapons, Georgia learnt why the Israeli generals failed. "What happened in Georgia is a message to all those the Americans are seeking to entangle in dangerous adventures." |
| Posted by:Sherry |
| #9 INTERFAX > Russia is claming any missles or weapons sold to SYRIA will be DEFENSIVE ONLY, + WON'T UPSET THE BALANCE OF FORCES IN THE REGION??? Also from INTERFAX > Russian Navy is NOT commenting on reports of PLANNED NAVBASE IN SYRIA??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-08-21 23:25 |
| #8 yes, I should have been more specific I meant the anti-syrian forces, which in recent months have been the nominal govt. the claim to be at war is meaningless, IMO. Stand up and say who should be disarmed? Have you been following Leb in recent months? waving back and forth on that has been the crux of Leb politics. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-08-21 14:55 |
| #7 I understand pretty well what Leb is all about (through Michael Totten and others) it's just that you comment did not distinguish between the various groups but talked about the aggregate. The aggregate is represented by the position of the government which still claims to be at war with Israel. If the Lebs are so nervous maybe they ought to stand up for themselves at least verbally and show who's side they're on. I don't expect the Cedar Rev babes to disarm Hezzies but I do expect them to stand up and say that they should be disarmed. Maybe even ask for and support specific outside help of some kind. |
| Posted by: AlanC 2008-08-21 14:48 |
| #6 Alan - Israel over the years has clearly favored certain elements in Leb politics, esp the Maronites. During the Cedar Rev I think it was clear that Israel favored the anti-Syrian coalition, consisting of Sunnis, Druze, and some Maronites over the pro-Syrian coalition of Hezbollah and its allies. Now of course the 2006 war strained things, but I think since its STILL been clear that the anti-Syrian lebs and israelis are at least tight co-belligerents, if not actual allies, this despite the nominal opposition of even the anti-syrian lebs to Israel (they dont really have much choice on that for a lot of reasons) So to make a deal WITH Syria, and to essentially wink at the Syrian presence in Leb (which I think would be part of any deal between Jerusalem and Damascus) would be, in some sense, a betrayal of the anti-syrian lebs. But, as I hinted, the anti-syrian lebs seem unable to really act as independent force against hezb, certainly not reliably, so it doesnt make sense for Israel to pass up a good deal (if that can be had) for the sake of Jumblatt, Harriri, et al. Perhaps you are under the impression that Lebanon is a unified state, rather than competing coalitions of factions. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-08-21 13:07 |
| #5 LH can you please explain how Israel can "betray" Lebanon? That makes as much sense as saying the the US invasion of Okinawa betrayed the Japanese. Lebanon is a declared enemy of Israel, jeez. And exactly what have we promised to Lebanon that we could possibly betray? |
| Posted by: AlanC 2008-08-21 12:59 |
| #4 Israel has been talking to Damascus for months, with the goal of doing a deal and turning Syria from its alliance with Iran. Kurtzer, from what I can gather thinks thats a good idea. I have NO reason whatsoever to think that hes going to Syria to betray Israel. I do understand how Lebanese would be nervous about being betrayed by both Israel and the US, but then I can also see why Israel thinks Leb is a lost cause, and that turning Syria from Iran is simply more important. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-08-21 12:02 |
| #3 LH, kinda? See no evil mode? What? |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-21 11:55 |
| #2 that quote is from one Tony Badran, an "expert" id never heard of before. Otherwise its just Kurtzer meeting with Syria. Kinda like Israelis are meeting with Syria. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-08-21 11:15 |
| #1 Obama Adviser Meets With Syria “It’s not a secret that the Syrians are openly banking on Barack Obama,” Emphasis on "banking". |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-21 11:11 |