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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Asia Times: China seeks Caucasian crisis windfall |
| 2008-08-21 |
| However, the European powers are not the only ones facing a hard time over taking a stance on the Caucasus. China is similarly placed. Chinese President Hu Jintao received Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on August 9 in Beijing and hosted a dinner in his honor. Yet, Chinese accounts of the meeting left out any reference to the Caucasus. (The Georgian assault on South Ossetia began on August 7-8). Hu told Putin, "China and Russia are forging ahead with the partnership of strategic cooperation toward their established goals, and the development of both countries is faced with opportunities and challenges at the same time." Hu stressed three aspects of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation: promoting multi-polarity and democratization in international relations; enhanced Sino-Russian political cooperation both bilaterally and within the multilateral framework; and economic cooperation in a spirit of "mutual benefits and a win-win outcome". Putin, on the other hand, drew Hu's attention to "Russia's friendly policy toward China" and signaled Moscow's keenness to "elevate the practical cooperation with China to a new height". Something was amiss. It seems Putin briefed Hu about Moscow's concerns in the Caucasus and Hu listened. At any rate, on the very next day, when a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman made his first comments, he merely expressed China's "grave concern over the escalation of tension and armed conflicts" and called on the "relevant parties to keep restraint and to cease fire immediately". In effect, the spokesman kept equidistance. He concluded by saying that China sincerely hoped "relevant parties" would resolve disputes peacefully through dialogue "so as to safeguard regional peace and stability". He was in no mood to judge the "disputes" as such. Meanwhile, on August 11, a group of Georgians held demonstrations in front of the Russian Embassy in Beijing, though the "crowd was persuaded to disperse and leave, and no extreme actions took place". On August 13, a Chinese spokesman repeated that the "disputes be resolved peacefully through dialogue so as to achieve regional peace and stability". This has become the Chinese mantra regarding the Caucasus crisis. The Chinese spokesman repeated it on August 14, while he "welcomed" Moscow's announcement on halting military operations. Again, Chinese media accounts have been extensive but balanced. What stands out, on the whole, is that Beijing has refrained from taking a position supportive of Russia. If anything, the only commentary offered so far in the People's Daily on August 12 called for a cessation of hostilities in the spirit of the Summer Olympic Games and disapproved of the Russian intervention, which, it said, "rapidly escalated the tension and raised international concerns and public anxiety". It underscored, "Some analysts even showed the concern that military antagonism could evolve into a new version of the Cold War." There was some advice to the Kremlin: "War is not the way to settle conflicts. The only way to effectively resolve disputes is to disregard old grievances, cease hostilities and negotiate for peace. Only in the backdrop of peace and in the framework of constructive negotiation can a win-win deal be reached." Significantly, Beijing does not figure in the list of capitals that the Russian Foreign Ministry has been in touch with during the past 10 days. Reciprocity would have meant a Chinese endorsement of the Russian stance. Indeed, that was how Moscow reacted when trouble broke out in Lhasa in Tibet and China found itself at the receiving end of Western opinion, especially in the US's estimation. Evidently, China estimates it deserved whole-hearted Russian support, and any comparison between Tibet and the Caucasus is untenable. True, there are no analogies in international affairs. But the fact remains that Beijing also affirms that the Sino-Russian relationship today is at an all-time high. A long-standing border demarcation has just been completed. Besides, there are calculations to be made. What is in it for China? Beijing will be extremely careful on issues concerning national sovereignty, separatism or anything that smacks of the right of self-determination. That's for sure. And in the Caucasian cauldron, all these dangerous elements are brewing. China will face a nasty predicament if Moscow endorses the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia - an eventuality that by no means can be ruled out if Rice succeeds in her mission in Brussels on Tuesday. As Beijing would see it, Moscow has already entered a dangerous "no-go" zone by conducting military operations inside Georgian territory, by putting conditionalities on the withdrawal of its forces from Georgian soil and by loudly speculating on the (lack of) realism in laboring to preserve Georgia's territorial integrity. In the Chinese perspective, independence of South Ossetia or Abkhazia is unacceptable, as separatism is evil and self-determination is a dangerous principle. Period. Historically, in the highly complex matrix of US-Russia-China equations, it only worked to China's advantage if US-Russia relations frayed. A chill in ties with Russia almost reflexively prompts Washington to cultivate China. Some signs of it are already there. Russian WHINE here... As a Russian commentator put it, "An analysis of America's global missile defense system shows that Washington is deploying its elements primarily in Eastern Europe rather than Japan, or other Asian countries or Australia. This is probably because Washington does not want to irritate China, which could respond by stepping up the development of its own missile program and increasing the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles on combat duty." Energy stuff But China also has to weigh the fallouts on Russia's future energy policies, which are of direct consequence to Beijing. As of now, Russia views Europe as the preferred market for its energy exports. This is despite Moscow paying lip service to Asian markets. In real terms, Europe is competing with China for Russian energy supplies. This competition may begin to border on rivalry. China no doubt watches anxiously whether Nabucco undergoes a metamorphosis and becomes a Russian-European project. If that happens, Moscow would have even less interest in robustly developing China as an alternate market for its energy exports. The North Stream, South Stream and Nabucco - that will be far too much on the Russian plate. As an energy guzzler, China will be a huge beneficiary if another Berlin Wall were to appear in Russia's relations with Europe at this juncture. |
| Posted by:3dc |
| #4 With precedent set and accepted by Russia, China will need to invade Siberia to protect its oppressed Chinese citizens there. And with Kazakh oil export lines to the west now all in the control of the Russians again, perhaps China will get good terms on building an export line to the east? |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2008-08-21 12:31 |
| #3 COUNTERTERRRORISM BLOG > AUSTRALIA FACES A "ASIAN NUCLEAR THREAT". A major US withdrawal = redux in the Asia-Pacific Region may induce JAPAN to go Nukular, which in turn will induce CHINA, etc. TO ALSO GO NUKULAR TO COUNTER JAPAN, MAINLAND + PERIPHERAL NUKE ARMS RACE which in turn WILL THREATEN THE AUSSIES. CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR ISLAMISM ON ASIA-PACIFIC SPECIFIC GEOPOLS STILL UNCLEAR. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-08-21 03:21 |
| #2 WORLDNEWS > NEW WAYS OF DEMOCRATICIZING CHINA + CHINA WELCOMES THE WORLD TO ITS OLMYPICS WHILE TURNING AWAY ITS ETHNIC MINORITIES. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-08-21 00:38 |
| #1 Iff NUKE-ARMED RUSSIA does indeed demographic turn MAJORITY MUSLIM BY 2050 as many Perts believe, that is to CHINA's NATIONAL-REGIONAL SECURITY INTEREST AS PER UIGHUR, etc. UNREST- Ditto for the rest of NON-MUSLIM/ISLAMIST ASIA. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-08-21 00:23 |