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| Turkey: A precarious bridge between East and West |
| 2008-08-28 |
| Turkey's position as a precarious bridge between East and West is highlighted once more as it is torn between its NATO obligations and its important trade partner Russia. Barriers at customs remind Turkey of the potential danger of upsetting Moscow, while NATO ships on the Black Sea armed with Tomahawks and anti-ship missiles irritate Russians U.S. President George W. Bush: "We expect Russia to live up to its international commitments, reconsider this irresponsible decision and follow the approach set out in the six-point (cease-fire) agreement." French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner: "We cannot accept these violations of international law, of accords for security and cooperation in Europe, of United Nations resolutions, and the taking ... of a territory by the army of a neighboring country." Russian President Dmitry Medvedev: "We're not afraid of anything, we will do everything we can to avoid a new Cold War. If they want relations to worsen, they will get it." The Russian move to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia at the expense of triggering a collision course with the West has left Turkey in a dilemma as the country may be forced to choose between the two if the rift deepens in the near future. Walking along the lines of a fragile diplomacy in the wake of the latest Caucasus crisis between Russia and Georgia, Turkey wants to neither disengage itself from its Western allies nor alienate its trade and energy partner Russia. The trade volume between Turkey and Russia is expected to reach $38 billion this year, according to Turkish estimations, raising Russia to first place among its trade partners. No doubt, all the complications in the newly shaping global order are narrowing Turkey's maneuverability on foreign policy. Turkey has lately found itself increasingly under pressure from both sides. The passage of NATO ships through the Turkish straits to dispatch humanitarian aid to war-torn Georgia has been a source of contention between the West and Russia. Stuck between the two, Turkey seriously adhered to the Montreux convention of 1936 governing the access of military ships to the Black Sea through the straits, thus blocking U.S. intentions to show force in the Black Sea. Still this is far from satisfying Moscow, which raised objections even to the U.S. ships carrying humanitarian aid and showed its discontent with the NATO exercise in the Black Sea, an event scheduled long ago. "NATO's naval deployments in the Black Sea, where nine foreign vessels have already been sent, provoke concern," said the Russian deputy chief of General Staff Anatoly Nogovitsyn early this week. According to a Russian military intelligence source, the NATO warships that have entered the Black Sea carry over 100 Tomahawk cruise missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. So far three U.S., Polish, German and Spanish ships have passed through the straits. Turkey is extremely careful not to violate the Montreux convention. It is however also extremely cautious not to antagonize its Russian neighbor and main trade partner. The Turkish economy already has suffered from the recent tension as Russian boarder obstructions have hit Turkish exporters. These difficulties by the Russians are perceived by Ankara as an implicit warning to Turkey to be careful when it chooses a side in the conflict, thus raising questions as to the loyalty of Russia as a trade partner and the growing trade dependency with Russia. The problems at the customs were raised during telephone conversations between the two countries' foreign ministers. The Russian ambassador said he was upset the economic issue spread to the diplomatic platform, but assured the Russian government took the initiative to solve the problem. Similar questions will also be raised as to Turkey's heavy dependence on Russian energy supplies. Turkey depends on this country for 29 percent of its oil and 63 percent of natural gas. It cannot afford a disruption in the gas and oil flow. Meanwhile, Turkey's relations with Russia are not the only criteria shaping its policy in the recent crisis. The Turkish government believes the West as well as Russia should refrain from steps that would aggravate the situation. It has thus asked its NATO allies to be less aggressive towards Russia. Independence: model for northern Cyprus? Besides Turkey's conflicting interests with the West and Russia, the political implications of Russian recognition of two breakaway provinces leave Turkey with a difficult dilemma. The fact that it can set a precedent makes Turkey undoubtedly nervous, as it is fighting against a separatist group, the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party. Turkey is also against an independent Kurdish state in Iraq. Though some believe that the recent situation strengthens the hands of Turkish Cyprus, a country only recognized by Turkey; many disagree by reminding that talks are underway to reunite the island. "It is not accurate to recognize northern Cyprus as an independent state," Russian Ambassador to Ankara Vladimir Ivanovskiy told reporters yesterday, citing the U.N. resolutions. But he declined to further comment as the two leaders of the divided island of Cyprus are set to hold direct negotiations in September. "Territorial integrity and national sovereignty [of Serbia] has been violated in the Kosovo case," said the Russian envoy. But he admitted that Kosovo, northern Cyprus, South Ossetia or Abkhazia would not enjoy larger support from the international community vis-à -vis their independence, a fact all of which has to live with. "BSEC already in place" The details of the negotiations between Turkish and Russian diplomats in Moscow are still not available but the Turkish-led Caucasus platform for peace and solidarity in the region will be thoroughly discussed when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Tuesday with his Turkish counterpart Ali Babacan in Istanbul. Ambassador Ivanovskiy said Russia considered the Turkish proposal for cooperation and security in the Caucasus as a "good beginning" but said it was difficult for both Moscow and Ankara to discuss such issues overnight. He admitted that it was not an easy task to bring together Baku-Yerevan around the same table but he added, "I know where such a meeting can take place. Negotiations can be held at the Black Sea Economic Cooperation [BSEC] platform of which all five countries are members." With regard to the ambassador's reference, it is important to further note that BSEC mainly handles economic cooperation and is not a platform to discuss security matters. Despite the growing feeling that Turkey's Caucasus proposal is dead in the water, sources close to the prime minister insisted that the regional mechanism was still feasible in the long run. President Abdullah Gül also said negotiations were still under way over the proposal and added it would not be realized tomorrow. "The Foreign Ministry is engaged in intense diplomacy. Turkey cannot stay out of the developments. Turkey will be careful, balanced but determined," he told NTV. Since the eruption of the crisis between Russia and Georgia, Ankara repeatedly stressed the territorial integrity of Georgia must be respected. The president once again underlined this yesterday. "Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity is important for everyone," Gül said. However the ministry's official statement issued late Tuesday fell short of a strong emphasis on the territorial integrity, reflecting as a sign of how stranded Ankara was. |
| Posted by:mrp |