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| Afghanistan |
| US intelligence: Afghanistan in 'downward spiral' under Hamid Karzai's government |
| 2008-10-09 |
| Facing a spreading Taliban insurgency, the White House has begun a comprehensive review of policy towards Afghanistan. A National Intelligence Estimate, representing the considered view of America's 16 spy agencies, is now being prepared. Its conclusions are thought to be deeply pessimistic, stressing the systemic weakness of Afghanistan's central government and the damage caused by the burgeoning narcotics trade, which may account for about half of the country's entire economy. This assessment is expected to be completed after next month's presidential election – and may remain classified. But officials told yesterday's New York Times that its conclusion was that Afghanistan was in a "downward spiral". The assessment stresses two key trends: the increasingly sophisticated nature of the Taliban insurgency and the structural weakness of Mr Karzai's government. Taliban fighters are now thought to have a permanent presence in 17 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. As well as conducting a classic insurgency – notably by killing 10 French troops in an ambush outside Kabul in August – they have also branched into urban terrorism against high profile targets. This year, attacks have been launched against the Serena Hotel and the Indian Embassy in the capital, Kabul. But Mr Karzai's government, mired in corruption, has little control over large areas of the country. The Afghan National Army (ANA) will have 86,000 troops by next summer and should eventually deploy 134,000 soldiers. Yet foreign troops still bear the brunt of counter-insurgency efforts. In Iraq, US forces managed to pacify large areas by arming local militias. They may decide to do the same in Afghanistan, despite the danger that this will simply undermine the ANA and further weaken the central government. Moreover, Afghanistan's security is inextricably linked with the situation in neighbouring Pakistan. At present, Taliban fighters enjoy a haven in the Tribal Areas on Pakistan's north-west frontier, where they are able to rearm and regroup before launching cross-border attacks. Pakistan's lawless enclaves may also host al-Qaeda's core leadership, possibly including Osama bin Laden. American officials believe that Pakistan's authorities have failed to cope with this threat and some elements of their security services, notably the Inter-Services Intelligence agency, may be covertly helping the Taliban and al-Qaeda. "Unfortunately, what we've seen in the last six months is the Taliban getting more organised and to some extent having more co-operation with al-Qaeda," said a senior US official. He added that the "dangerous elements are very entrenched" and Pakistan's security agencies were not fully engaged in the struggle, despite assurances from President Asif Ali Zardari. "Getting all the people and all the instruments of government to line up in that direction is not as simple as giving a speech," said the official. "We are not at the point where every instrument of national power in Pakistan is lined up to fight terrorism." |
| Posted by:tipper |
| #6 TW, it's probably the same "folks" doing the leaking this time so the reliability is suspect. Of course this IS the New York Slimes in the midst of the election! |
| Posted by: Lionel Jiger8451 2008-10-09 16:10 |
| #5 I don't understand. If the report is still over a month from being completed, how can there be conclusons to leak? Is this possibly going to turn out to be as deeply misleading as the leaks about the NIE about Iran? |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2008-10-09 16:01 |
| #4 I'll be interested to see what Patreus has to say about the situation when he gives his first briefing. Wall Pakistan and Afghanistan in and let them kill themselves. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-10-09 14:22 |
| #3 Being told what to do IS a lot easier than self-determination. I don't really see how that feckless lack of individualism can be fought, with or without guns. If people would rather be owned by a warlord, what can we do? I'll be interested to see what Patreus has to say about the situation when he gives his first briefing. |
| Posted by: bigjim-ky 2008-10-09 13:17 |
| #2 A country this big geographically probably needs at least a couple of hundred thousand regular troops to hold it together, never mind defend it from invaders. Afghanistan's problem is that it doesn't have the revenues to pay for those troops. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-10-09 12:50 |
| #1 In other news... water is wet. seriously, how can it be otherwise if the opium trade is allowed to flourish unhindered? |
| Posted by: Abu do you love 2008-10-09 12:39 |