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Home Front Economy
Oil down to $78 per barrel
2008-10-11
NEW YORK (AP) - Oil prices plunged in another violent sell-off Friday, briefly tumbling below $78 a barrel as investors grow more pessimistic about the prospects for resolving a mushrooming global economic crisis. A barrel of oil hasn't been this cheap in 13 months.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell $8.01 to $78.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier falling to $77.28, its lowest level since Sept. 11, 2007. Crude has now lost about 47 percent since hitting a record $147.27 on July 11, tumbling as a deepening credit crisis caused by the subprime mortgage fiasco wreaks havoc around the globe and drives down energy demand.

Underscoring Americans' waning appetite for fuel, a gallon of regular gasoline dropped 5.3 cents overnight to a new national average of $3.35 a gallon, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express.

Oil market traders were also fixated on signs of falling energy demand around the globe. The International Energy Agency on Friday cut its global oil demand forecasts for this year and 2009, pointing to the worsening economic conditions and the tight credit supply. The Paris-based energy watchdog cut its forecast for oil demand this year by 240,000 barrels per day, and slashed its 2009 forecast by 440,000 barrels per day. The IEA now expects global oil demand to total 86.5 million barrels per day this year and 87.2 million barrels per day next year.

"The fundamental game for oil has changed. In the last decade, oil went up because of strong global economic growth. That story for the near term is over, so everybody has to re-evaluate," Flynn said. What's driving this market right now is fear of demand destruction and lack of credit," he said. "If you can't borrow money to buy crude, then demand falls more and so do prices."

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 22.06 cents to $2.198 a gallon, while gasoline prices dropped 22.26 cents to $1.8047 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery fell 26 cents to $6.565 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, November Brent crude fell $8.39 to $74.27 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Bangla Daily Star has oil at $77 a barrel.
Posted by:Steve White

#10  For every futures contract, there is probably a CDS (Credit Default Swap) contract to cover the margin. Perhaps several.

Watch what happens at the end of this month.

How much of the current credit crunch is tied to CDSs positions, nobody knows.
Posted by: Skunky Glins 5***   2008-10-11 22:12  

#9  Procopius2k nailed it above. I hope our feckless government takes the appropriate action.
Posted by: Besoeker   2008-10-11 16:23  

#8  Crude on the world market is priced in dollars. With the dollar at a 16 month high, crude prices (in dollars) had to fall, even independent of supply/demand changes.
Posted by: Minister of funny walks   2008-10-11 16:16  

#7  As a child my family took a trip from KC to the Ozarks in 1961. I recollect an oil price in hillbilly land (not a slam by the way) at 17.9 cents per gallon. Never seen it lower in my lifetime. For 2 bucks you could "fill 'er up". My point, nostagia aside, is that the oil companies were raking in millions even back then. Today "supply and demand" is not at work - cartels adjust supply as they wish. No better or worse than the folks in Sinaloa or Colombia.
Posted by: borgboy   2008-10-11 14:27  

#6  Here is a graph, inflation adjusted, for crude oil prices for 60 years or so.

Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart
Posted by: Alaska Paul    2008-10-11 14:21  

#5  Oil prices need to stabilise between 65 and 90 to maintain infrastructure of the bio fuels and unconventional oils. If we don't we will see wildly flunctuating prices that ultimately will hurt the consumers and the worlds economies.
Posted by: darrylq   2008-10-11 11:37  

#4  As I just pointed out in another thread, oil is back to where it was sometime in 2007. I can't find a detailed chart.

Lots of people were making lots of money, both domestically and internationally in 2006 with prices lower than they are now.
Posted by: Tranquil Mechanical Yeti   2008-10-11 10:48  

#3  Crude can't be allowed to crash! Why, it might actually benefit Joe Schmoe, and the crazies of the world won't be able to blow up as much crap as before! Quagmire!!!
Posted by: Cornsilk Blondie   2008-10-11 10:06  

#2   "If you can't borrow money to buy crude, then demand falls more and so do prices."

It's not just demand, the 'credit' market has gone south stopping the speculators from floating paper to jack up the commodity. Now to really hammer it home, the regulators need to follow through and make sure those who bid oil 'futures' above $100 pay and are not permitted to exercise an escape clause. Those unable to pay need to be barred for life from commodities trading.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2008-10-11 07:56  

#1  ...Still occasional shortages here in Columbia, SC, but as of last night it's down to $3.26 - actually lower than it was before Hurricane Ike.

Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski   2008-10-11 05:09  

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