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| Afghanistan |
| Nato hard at work making deals to beat the Khyber Pass convoy trap |
| 2008-12-13 |
| Nato plans to open a new supply route to Afghanistan through Russia and Central Asia in the next eight weeks following a spate of attacks on its main lifeline through Pakistan this year, Nato and Russian sources have told The Times. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the former Soviet Central Asian states that lie between Russia and Afghanistan, have agreed in principle to the railway route and are working out the small print with Nato, the sources said. “It'll be weeks rather than months,” said one Nato official. “Two months max.” The “Northern Corridor” is expected to be discussed at an informal meeting next week between Dmitri Rogozin, Russia's ambassador to Nato, and Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Nato's Secretary-General. The breakthrough reflects Nato and US commanders' growing concern about the attacks on their main supply line, which runs from the Pakistani port of Karachi via the Khyber Pass to Kabul and brings in 70 per cent of their supplies. The rest is either driven from Karachi via the border town of Chaman to southern Afghanistan - the Taleban's heartland - or flown in at enormous expense in transport planes that are in short supply. “We're all increasingly concerned,” Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Wednesday. “But in that concern, we've worked pretty hard to develop options.” The opening of the Northern Corridor also mirrors a gradual thaw in relations between Moscow and Nato, which plunged to their lowest level since the end of the Cold War after Russia's brief war with Georgia in August. However, Nato and the United States are simultaneously in talks on opening a third supply route through the secretive Central Asian state of Turkmenistan to prevent Russia from gaining a stranglehold on supplies to Afghanistan, the sources said. Non-lethal supplies, including fuel, would be shipped across the Black Sea to Georgia, driven to neighbouring Azerbaijan, shipped across the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan and then driven to the Afghan border. The week-long journey along this “central route” would be longer and more expensive than those through Pakistan or Russia and would leave supplies vulnerable to political volatility in the Caucasus and Turkmenistan. The US and Nato are, though, exploring as many alternatives as possible as America prepares to deploy 20,000 more troops - three quarters of them by the summer - to add to the 67,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan. Turkmenistan represents the only realistic alternative that bypasses Russia. A route through Iran is out of the question because Washington does not have diplomatic relations with Tehran. Afghanistan's border with China is too remote to be used. An agreement with Georgia has already been signed and negotiations with Azerbaijan are “ongoing”, a Nato official said. Nato began exploring alternative supply routes in response to political instability in Pakistan last year and reached an informal agreement with Russia on the Northern Corridor at a Nato summit in Bucharest in April. At the same meeting President Berdymukhammedov of Turkmenistan offered to allow Nato to take supplies across its territory and to establish logistics bases there, according to Nato sources. Negotiations stalled after the Georgian crisis, as Nato suspended high-level contacts with Moscow and Central Asian countries grew wary of angering the former Soviet master. They have since shown their independence by refusing to back Moscow's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. Russia, meanwhile, has been offering preferential treatment to Nato members that it considers “friendly”, such as France and Germany, the only Nato members allowed to fly supplies to Afghanistan through Russian airspace. In November Germany also became the first Nato member allowed to bring supplies for Afghanistan through Russia by railway. Russian officials say that Moscow is ready to open the Northern Corridor to all Nato members as soon as the alliance finalises its agreements with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The agreements cover non-military supplies such as fuel, food and clothing, and some non-lethal military equipment. “All Nato countries will be able to use the Northern Corridor,” one Russian official familiar with the negotiations told The Times. “As far as we understand, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have agreed to it and sent the relevant papers to Brussels. We're just waiting for Nato to sign the agreements. We've done our part.” |
| Posted by:john frum |
| #7 Road and rail map of Turkmenistan Note the close proximity of both routes to Iran < 20K. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2008-12-13 20:41 |
| #6 Non-lethal supplies, including fuel, would be shipped across the Black Sea to Georgia, driven to neighbouring Azerbaijan, shipped across the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan and then driven to the Afghan border. Hurray. Someone gets it. Logistics through enemy territory is supplies denied. Actually there is a train line from ports of Poti Georgia to Baku Azerbijian. It was cut by the Russian invasion and sections blown up. Better the money goes to Georgians, Azeris and Turkomen than to Pakistan to feed and raise another generation that will try to kill us. |
| Posted by: ed 2008-12-13 19:31 |
| #5 Turkmenistan can be coaxed (bribed) by laying a pipeline under the Caspian and exporting their gas at market rates. Last time I looked the Russians were generously taking the Turkmen gas at 30% of market rates (around $70-80/100CuM at the time) and selling their own gas to Europe at Euro market rates. This means $billions/year extra revenue for the Turkmens and a much higher standard of living. They are the Kuwait of nat gas. This should have begun years ago, even when Turkmenbashi was alive. Russian nat gas at the German border (Nov 2008): $575/1000CuM ) US nat gas price (Dec 2008): $7.43/MMBtu = $265/1000CuM |
| Posted by: ed 2008-12-13 19:25 |
| #4 Turkmenistan. Now there's a secure reliable partner. /endsarcasm |
| Posted by: phil_b 2008-12-13 18:05 |
| #3 The Northern Route is as problematic as the Pak. Time to recognize that Afghanistan is, and always will be, plagued by locational obsolescence. Declare victory, withdraw, drive the Taliban and al-Qaeda out of Pakistan before they take it over, invade Afghanistan to finally destroy al-Q and the Taliban from Pakistan, if necessary. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-12-13 17:27 |
| #2 a new route would allow us to tell Pakis to f*ck off on the whining and sovereignty crap and cut off their aid. Let that shithole die |
| Posted by: Frank G 2008-12-13 17:03 |
| #1 Nato plans to open a new supply route to Afghanistan through Russia and Central Asia in the next eight weeks following a spate of attacks on its main lifeline through Pakistan this year, Nato and Russian sources have told The Times. Logistics, New Option: John, the Northern routes are problematic. But A new shipping/supply route going through Indian Ports and shipping Depots would be sublime! :) Keeping in mind that a straight line is often the shortest distance between two points, it would be mathematically elegant to Jump off from India and GRIND our new supply route straight through Pakistan. This new shipping/supply route kills at least several dozen rag-headed shit-birds with each armored stone. :) |
| Posted by: Red Dawg 2008-12-13 16:15 |