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| Terror Networks |
| Spengler: The failed Muslim states to come |
| 2008-12-15 |
| ... Pakistan is about to become a failed state, and Iran and Turkey will be close behind. ... Pakistan's military-age population is far greater than those of other Muslim military powers in the region. With about 20 million men of military age, Pakistan today has as much manpower as Turkey and Iran combined, and by 2035 it will have half again as many. Half the country is illiterate and three-quarters of it subsists on less than $2 a day, according to the World Bank. That is to say that Pakistan's young men are more abundant as well as cheaper than in any other country in the region. Very poor and ignorant young men, especially if their only education has been in Salafi madrassas, are very easy to enlist in military adventures. The West at present is unable to cope with a failed state like Somalia, with less than a tenth as many military age men as Pakistan, but which nonetheless constitutes a threat to world shipping and a likely source of funding for terrorism. How can the West cope with the humiliation of Pakistan's pro-American president and the inability of its duly-constituted government to suppress Islamist elements in its army and intelligence services? For the moment, Washington will do its best to prop up its creature, Zardari, but to no avail. The alternatives will require the West to add several zeros to whatever the prevailing ceiling might be for acceptable collateral damage. |
| Posted by:tipper |
| #7 ION WAFF > IRANIANS [+ KURDS] ARE DOOMED: TURKEY MOVING AHEAD WITH PLANS TO DISMANTLE IRAN!? Turkey allegedly desires to connect the Azeribaijan region of Iran wid Turkey-Azeribaijan [former Soviet SSR] vee pre-planned NEW REGIONAL GENOCIDE AND DIASPORA OF 10-15 MILYUHN KURDS. In adition to above, Turkey desires: * The Formation of PRO-TURKEY = TURK-CENTRIC REGIONAL ECONOMIC UNION, + * Training and MilPol support of PRO-TURKEY/TURKIC REGIONAL GOVTS + PROFESSIONAL MILFORS. IFF TURKEY IS BEING NICE, THE KURDS MAY END UP ONLY BEING PUSHED OR FORCED INTO NORTHERN IRAQ [read, future sovereign KURDISTAN]. ALso, PAKISTANI DEFENCE FORUM > IRAN TO REFORM [Improve + Revolutionize] ITS MISSLE PRODUCTION UNITS/PROGRAMS. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-12-15 22:31 |
| #6 Good argument for non-MidEastern sources of energy |
| Posted by: 3dc 2008-12-15 17:12 |
| #5 If Pakistan is smart, and they have all those extra military aged men they should pull a Saudi Arabia and find a place, someplace far, for them to go Jihad. Perhaps in Indonesia, the Philipines or Africa somewhere. Find the less zealot ones and get them into the Pak army and have them work as Peacekeepers at the UN's behest to gain experience and help pay their salaries. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2008-12-15 16:55 |
| #4 Personally I don't care at all what happens to this toilet states.....AS LONG AS THEY CAN'T INFECT ANYWHERE ELSE. Take the Waki nukes and squash anyone that tries to give or sell them weapons of any kind then leave them to their chaos or peace or whatever they make of it. |
| Posted by: AlanC 2008-12-15 16:06 |
| #3 The writer (Spengler) is a real optimist. /s |
| Posted by: tipover 2008-12-15 14:25 |
| #2 The question is if Pakistan falls can any sections be saved? Perhaps we should be promoting Baluchi independence so that if Pakistan falls a new state might suddenly appear rather than fall entirely into Chaos. A new state that has some ethnic fellows over in neighboring Iran to boot. Perhaps we should be promoting the PUnjab elements in Pakistan to get therapy and join up with the Punjab state in India. Note this could be dangerous so I'd let the Indians be the judge on the wisdom of this but as far as thought experments go it should be thought through. The NWFrontier is already part of Afghanistan and doesn't know it. With a little work, luck, and well aimed pushes, Pakistan might simply dissolve into smaller, weaker states rather than be the huge nightmare everyone predicts. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2008-12-15 14:12 |
| #1 Moderate Islam was the El Dorado of the diplomatic consensus. It might have been the case that Pakistan could be tethered to Western interests, or that Iran could be engaged peacefully, or that Turkey would incubate a moderate form of Islam. I considered all of this delusional, but the truth is that we shall never know. The financial crisis will sort them out first. LOL |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2008-12-15 12:43 |