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Home Front Economy
Oil tumbles below $40 for first time since 2004
2008-12-18
Oil prices tumbled below $40 for the first time since the summer of 2004 Wednesday despite an announcement from OPEC of a record production cut of 2.2 million barrels a day. Markets had already priced in a vastly reduced flow of oil and traders focused instead on troubling economic data that points to a long and severe recession.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery tumbled 8 percent, or $3.54, to settle at $40.06 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Benchmark crude prices fell as low as $39.88, a price last seen in July 2004. "There's just so much oil in inventory out there right now," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. "Nobody wants to buy this stuff."

Crude prices have fallen so low, producers have leased supertankers to store the oil at sea, hoping that oil will rebound. U.S. gasoline inventories continued to rise, the government reported, providing further evidence of a major pullback by American motorists.

Demand for gasoline over the four weeks ended Dec. 12 was 2.7 percent lower than a year earlier. OPEC had already announced cuts totaling 2 million barrels earlier this year, also with little effect. The unprecedented production cuts and the market reaction show just how fast energy demand has fallen during the worst economic downturn in at least a generation. "You've got a commodity that people are buying less of because they can't afford to buy more," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. "People are fearful. They have a lack of confidence in the economy. They're closing their factories."

Grim economic news radiates out of the U.S., Europe and Asia almost daily as consumers and industries pull back on spending. The Cooper Tire and Rubber Co. said Wednesday it will cut 1,300 jobs and close a plant in Georgia. Newell Rubbermaid Inc. is reducing its salaried work force by as much as 10 percent. The Atlanta-based company slashed its fourth-quarter and full-year profit guidance Wednesday. In Detroit, General Motors Corp. put the brakes on construction of an engine factory trying to hold on to the cash that it has left.

Meanwhile, the dollar suffered its biggest one-day decline against the euro after the Federal Reserve cut a key lending rate target to historic lows. That would typically lead more investors into the crude market because oil is bought and sold in dollars and you can get more bang for the buck. But investors in this harsh economic climate are holding onto their wallets like never before, betting there's not enough global demand to support higher crude prices, said Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy. "Oil prices should be a lot stronger," McGillian said.

The last time oil prices dipped below $40 a barrel was July 21, 2004. Prices settled that day at $40.09, according to Peter Beutel, an oil analyst at Cameron Hanover.
Posted by:Fred

#19  One reason I would like to see a Commercial Oil Reserve is to vastly dampen the out of control speculation like we saw the past year and a half. That cost the US economy at least an extra $500 billion and drove us into recession.

That we can make a profit doing it is just icing on the cake.
Posted by: ed   2008-12-18 23:02  

#18  Money well spent. Average price paid for oil in the Reserve - $28.42 per barrel
Posted by: ed   2008-12-18 22:53  

#17  Yep. We paid big money to fill the SPR.
Posted by: Mike N.   2008-12-18 22:48  

#16  $4 sounds like a good price.
Posted by: 3dc   2008-12-18 21:34  

#15  Ima cuttin' wood. Natural gas is getting higher and higher up here, so I supplement with wood.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2008-12-18 19:40  

#14  We dipped in it some for hurricanes or something this spring. Hope we didn't fill it with $140 stuff.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2008-12-18 18:43  

#13  Not only an SPR but also a Commercial Petroleum Buffer that is filled when prices are low and sold when prices are high.
Posted by: ed   2008-12-18 18:30  

#12  Then expand it.
I wish Europe was keeping a bigger one
Posted by: European Conservative   2008-12-18 17:45  

#11  We should be filling the SPR, that's for sure

I believe it's pretty much full. Has been for a year or two.
Posted by: lotp   2008-12-18 17:41  

#10  No better time for it than now
Posted by: European Conservative   2008-12-18 17:28  

#9  We should be filling the SPR, that's for sure.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2008-12-18 17:24  

#8  We had a speculative overshooting that - coupled with recession woes - now made the price tumble.

But if I had gigantic tanks at my disposal and enough cash to fill them, I would buy up every barrel I could find.

If you want a safe investment, this is one, even if oil recedes further. The oil futures speak a different language.
Posted by: European Conservative   2008-12-18 17:03  

#7  European Conservative, I agree. We could face a disruption of supplies at any time in the near future.  Or so it seems to Mr. Lotp and me.  We just took delivery of enough heating oil to bring our tank up to full a couple months earlier than we strictly needed to because of that risk.
Posted by: lotp   2008-12-18 15:21  

#6  Don't "fuel" yourself. Enjoy it while it lasts because it won't last long.
Posted by: European Conservative   2008-12-18 14:50  

#5  Its $38.30 at 10:15 and going down, down, down.
OPEC is going to have to eat the stuff to survive the winter.


I hope.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2008-12-18 10:18  

#4  Banks still tight on lending money again to speculators?
Posted by: P2k on holiday   2008-12-18 09:02  

#3  Smoked Camel anyone?
Posted by: Besoeker   2008-12-18 07:51  

#2  Let it be < $20/- !
Posted by: Duh!   2008-12-18 07:49  

#1  Call me when there are food riots in Soodia.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2008-12-18 03:27  

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