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| Home Front Economy |
| Unemployment Is Worse Than Reported |
| 2009-01-09 |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #10 WORLD MIL FORUM > seems a Chin Pert is claiming that MAINLAND CHINA's UNEMPLOYMENT RATE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 24%. ALso on WMF > BANK OF AMERICA HAS RENEGED ON ITS DEAL. REVENUES FOR NEXT TWO QUARTERS FORECASTED TO BE POOR??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2009-01-09 21:44 |
| #9 Thanks lotp. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2009-01-09 20:31 |
| #8 Please explain "birth/death" model. The phrase refers to assumptions about the rate of new company / job startups and failures. Small companies are not well reflected in actual job figures, especially as they rapidly add or lose employees. Or more accurately, they are not picked up on right away. Unlike large companies, which tend to lay people off in groups with advance notice and take time to go through a long formal hiring process, small companies can hire or lay people off quickly or even go under with no notice. So the Bureau of Labor Statistics has to make assumptions about the rate at which those are happening. As it turns out, in the early part of an economic recovery, jobs are often created in small companies at a faster rate than in the economy as a whole. If those jobs aren't reflected in the BLS Current Employment Statistics model, then unemployment will be over-estimated until more accurate actual numbers are gathered. But in a recession, it's quite likely that the small company job death is more rapid than in large companies. If those job 'deaths' are not accurately estimated, then the CES will underestimate unemployment as a whole in the economy until the actual job losses are logged. |
| Posted by: lotp 2009-01-09 19:57 |
| #7 If states keep raising their minimum wage farther and farther above the federal minimum, unemployment will continue to rise. You will note that unemployment is rising fastest in the states with the highest minimum wage. Raising minimum wages doesn't provide people with "a living wage". It provides more people with unemployment. |
| Posted by: crosspatch 2009-01-09 18:14 |
| #6 Question: Please explain "birth/death" model. What does that term mean? |
| Posted by: mom 2009-01-09 16:29 |
| #5 Well, krep... I've lost three jobs in 2008 alone - part-time jobs, of course, since I wanted to concentrate on writing. Let go from one, employer died in another, third one lost too much business to afford me, even part-time. My daughter also lost her part-time job in September - and couldn't even get hired on for the Christmas rush, as no one was hiring sales help for the holidays. Guess I shouldn't let go of my most recent regularly paying part-time employment gig, I guess. |
| Posted by: Sgt. Mom 2009-01-09 13:57 |
| #4 The sharpness of the downswing and the "helpful" efforts of our government are going cause unemployment to do more than flirt with 10%. I predict that by spring unemployment is going to forcefully penetrate the double digits. Rape is more likely than flirting. I hope I'm wrong. |
| Posted by: Richard of Oregon 2009-01-09 11:57 |
| #3 Isn't California already at approx. 10% unemployment, of the 60% in the state who WILL work that is? |
| Posted by: bigjim-ky 2009-01-09 11:50 |
| #2 Of course, all those raising of minimum wage [which doesn't reflect the implied rise in workers comp, unemployment insurance, social security, et al] when times were a rolling will certainly encourage employers to start rehiring - particularly in the small businesses which sustains most of the employment. /sarcasm off |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2009-01-09 11:46 |
| #1 Just wait until the January numbers come rolling in. I still expect unemployment to flirt with 10%. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2009-01-09 11:01 |