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| Benoit Mandelbrot thinks we're all screwed (Video) |
| 2009-01-16 |
| Posted by:3dc |
| #4 Mandelbroit is a plagiarist and a publicity hound. He has this large hammer he goes around with, banging on things. It's true that the markets are fractal, but he's hardly the first to notice it, just the first to tie it to his theories. I have his book on the subject, and it's fairly useless. Mandelbrot doesn't believe that the markets trend. Any successful trader will tell you that they do. Take a look at $SPX hourly candlesticks for the last month if you need convincing. Good short review: Fractal Financial Markets |
| Posted by: KBK 2009-01-16 17:50 |
| #3 They have a point that there's less "slop" in the global supply chain than there used to be but I think they've misidentified the cause. Rather than the hyper-efficiency they see as the culprit I tend to believe that it's a natural evolution of the regulatory state which imposes costs on businesses such that small business must necessarily give way to larger businesses (cf the ones that can absorb the imposed costs without going under). |
| Posted by: AzCat 2009-01-16 17:43 |
| #2 He doesn't say we're all screwed. That's more Taleb's specialty. Basically all that these guys are saying is that things could get worse. Well, yeah, they could, but that isn't the same as saying they will. |
| Posted by: Cynicism Inc 2009-01-16 14:27 |
| #1 Tell him to shove it up his non integer dimension. |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2009-01-16 14:15 |