The situation in Sri Lanka certainly looks as though the war with the Tamil Tigers is almost over, although over the last 25 years the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam have demonstrated the ability to recover from adversity several times.The Tamil Tigers certainly seem to be on the back foot, but even if they are crushed militarily, major questions will remain about the future political make-up of the island, and the conflict will remain unresolved in the long term.
The quest for meaningful devolution of power is one that has dominated Tamil politics since the mid-1970s, since parliamentary options were effectively closed, leading to armed conflict between the Tigers and the Sri Lankan armed forces.
The role of both Norway and neighbouring India needs to be brought back into the picture in order to help broker a lasting peace. Although India has its domestic problems at the moment - such as tensions with Pakistan and forthcoming elections, its interests in regional stability should be used as a positive influence in Sri Lankan politics.
Clearly, there is a significant danger in Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa assuming all-out victory. The increased attacks on journalists also echo the darkest days of the Premadasa regime in the 1990s, an era that ultimately led to war resuming with an even mightier force on both sides.
| The Sinhalese could certainly be stupid enough to throw away the chance they have to reunite the island. So too the defeated Tamils could swear that the next generation will get Dire Revenge™ and continue the fight with boom-babes and assassins. However, bringing India and Norway back into the picture only makes continued strife inevitable. They'd call for endless negotiations and compromise. The eyes of the world community would be on them. They might even be unfortunate enough to have a special rapper from the U.N. take up residence in Colombo. All of that guarantees more trouble. The government must now say that peaceful Tamils will be protected and that all citizens on the island, Sinhalese and Tamil, will have their basic rights guaranteed. That means a vote in the parliament, protection in the courts and the right to say and think what they wish. If the government does that Sri Lanka will return to being a far-off island with tropical breezes and white-sand beaches. If they don't, it won't matter what anyone else does. |