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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
WHO Cites Potential for Swine Flu Pandemic
2009-04-26
MEXICO CITY, April 25 -- The World Health Organization rushed to convene an emergency meeting Saturday to develop a response to the "pandemic potential" of a new swine flu virus that has sparked a deadly outbreak in Mexico and spread to disparate parts of the United States.

Health officials reported that at least eight students at a private high school in New York City had "probable" swine flu. They also confirmed three new cases -- two in Kansas and one in California -- bringing the total number of confirmed U.S. cases to 11. The president of Mexico, where the outbreak has killed as many as 81 people, issued an order granting his government broad powers to isolate patients and question travelers.

"This is a serious moment for the nation," President Felipe Calderón said Saturday. "And we are confronting it with seriousness, with all the pertinent measures."

The director general of the World Health Organization, Margaret Chan, said the "situation is evolving quickly."

"We do not yet have a complete picture of the epidemiology or the risk, including possible spread beyond the currently affected areas," said Chan, who cut short a trip to the United States so she could rush back to the WHO's headquarters in Geneva to convene an emergency meeting of expert advisers to formulate a response to the virus. It is the first time the committee has been called upon since it was created two years ago to help handle disease outbreaks after the SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, epidemic.

"In the assessment of the WHO, this is a serious situation that must be watched very carefully," she said. "It has pandemic potential."
Posted by:Steve White

#19  MEXICO CITY, April 26 (Xinhua) -- Mexican health secretary said on Sunday that suspected swine flu death toll rose to 103, as suspected cases reaching 1,614.

Note fatality rate is 7%, which will rise to over 10% as newly sick die. Although, cases are being undercounted, by perhaps a factor of 10. So real fatality rate is lower.

Also note 1918 pandemic had 3 or 4 waves, most fatalities occuring in the 2nd and 3rd waves.
Posted by: phil_b   2009-04-26 23:08  

#18  Best guess at the moment is (live) vaccine given to pigs (La Gloria, Veracruz), which combined with existing pig flu strain, then infected humans. Unlikely as it sounds initial transmission may have been by flies, then combined with existing human strain(s).

Posted by: phil_b   2009-04-26 22:58  

#17  There probably is no way of knowing, JosephM, and even were a culprit discovered, not likely that the public would ever be informed. Instapundit has several useful links for preparing against the worst case, though. Rantburg had a useful thread on the subject yesterday, too.
Posted by: trailing wife    2009-04-26 22:22  

#16  Islamist "Medical Jihad", versus Globalist = OWG-NWO "Medical/Disease Imperialism"? "Socialism"??
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-04-26 21:27  

#15  Tamiflu resistance developes quickly. It helps control small spot outbreaks, but will be useless for larger outbreaks. The strain spreading is almost certainly Tamiflu resitant because Tamiflu would have been used to control the initial spread in Mexico.
Posted by: phil_b   2009-04-26 21:18  

#14  We can control this given normal ports of entry and the single point of initiation.

But not at our porous southern border.

Where is our border fence and control?

Who dares call it "anti-immigrant" now?

Its been abotu security since day one. Things like this and terrorism is why we have been DEMANDING a fence for years.

McCain? I want his head on a damn pike if this turns out to be a pandmeic. Bush's too, along with all the open border politicians.

The blood of the victims is on their hands.
Posted by: OldSpook   2009-04-26 19:17  

#13  OS:
I heard all cases have traveled to Mexico recently, even the Europeans.
Posted by: Thealing Borgia 122   2009-04-26 17:08  

#12  To clarify: My God(Allah) declared ALL things acceptable for food, even swine, as long as thanks are given. I found the irony that Muslims may be the hardest hit sweeeeet!!!
Posted by: Thealing Borgia 122   2009-04-26 17:05  

#11  One CDC report said this was an unusual virus, as the bug contains human virus(A), avian virus from North America and pig viruses from North America, Europe and Asia. Engineered?

NYT's:"Swine Flu Epidemic Spreads: Young Muslims Hit Hardest"
 The will of Allah? Napolitano even reitterated that the flu could not be caught by eating pork.
Posted by: Thealing Borgia 122   2009-04-26 17:01  

#10  Where is our border control and our fence Mr McCain and all you "Open Border" types?

Committee meeting on ways to give the virus amnesty.
Posted by: Zorba Craising6734   2009-04-26 15:46  

#9  The US has just declared a "public health emergency" Toughly 12 million doses of the drug Tamiflu will be moved from a federal stockpile to places where states can quickly get their share if they decide they need it. Priority will be given to the five states with known cases so far: California, Texas, New York, Ohio and Kansas.
Sec HHS Napolitano called the emergency declaration standard operating procedure — one was declared recently for the inauguration and for flooding. She urged people to think of it as a "declaration of emergency preparedness."

Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418    2009-04-26 15:31  

#8  The "Flyingpig Flu" seems to be spreading fairly rapidly. New cases reported in many countries. Hope the administration is prepared for this!!
Posted by: Nick88   2009-04-26 14:49  

#7  Since this variety seems to kill quickly, those who do NOT cross at a border will die on the way.

Look for bodies being found along the "People Smuggling" Routes.
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2009-04-26 14:42  

#6  Normal flu kills the very old, chronically sick and to a lesser extent the very young. This will kill young to middle aged adults.
Posted by: phil_b   2009-04-26 12:35  

#5  Outbreaks now reported from students returning from Mexico in Auckland, NZ and France.

However, though this epidemic is showing cytokine storm effects, with mortality being worst among young males aged 25-44, pneumonia appearing in 85% of cases, about the max mortality under ideal circumstances in the US would be between 100,000 and 200,000. (A typical flu season US mortality has been recently recalculated at around 36,000.)

This compares to estimated US mortality of as high as 30 million for H5N1 Avian flu.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2009-04-26 11:37  

#4  Hmm. Kansas, only one went to mexico... are they illegals? San Diego, San Antonio... illegals there too?

If this turns out to be an epidemic, and people in Mexico panic, they damn sure aren't going to go running for Guatemala. They and their contagion are headed north, and we don't have any way of stopping them short of militarizing the border.

Where is our border control and our fence Mr McCain and all you "Open Border" types?
Posted by: OldSpook   2009-04-26 10:53  

#3  "WOLF! WOLF!"

"PANDEMIC! PANDEMIC!"
Posted by: Fred   2009-04-26 09:31  

#2  When the world wide Goat Flu Pandemic hits, we know who's to blame.
Posted by: Grunter   2009-04-26 08:46  

#1  Headline at NY Times:

"Swine Flu Epidemic Spreads: Young Muslims Hit Hardest"
Posted by: Jack is Back!   2009-04-26 07:34  

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