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Caribbean-Latin America
Mexican Data Show Migration to U.S. in Decline
2009-05-16
Census data from the Mexican government indicate an extraordinary decline in the number of Mexican immigrants going to the United States. The recently released data show that about 226,000 fewer people emigrated from Mexico to other countries during the year that ended in August 2008
ie before the crash
than during the previous year, a decline of 25 percent. All but a very small fraction of emigration, both legal and illegal, from Mexico is to the United States. Mexican and American researchers say that the current decline, which has also been manifested in a decrease in arrests along the border, is largely a result of Mexicans' deciding to delay illegal crossings because of the lack of jobs in the ailing American economy.
And the fence that President Bush started building to block the most popular crossing points. It's not anywhere near completion, but I believe it was OldSpook who once wrote about the importance of funnelling traffic to areas more difficult to traverse.
The net outflow of migrants from Mexico -- those who left minus those who returned -- fell by about half in the year that ended in August 2008 from the preceding year.
So returnees are way up. The combination of poor employment prospects, fencing to block the most popular entry points, and highly publicized mass arrests of illegals seems to be working. There's a cute little graph in the article showing a strong downward trend from 2006 through 2008. This year should be even more interesting.
The figures are based on detailed household interviews conducted quarterly by the census agency in Mexico, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography.

Still, at least 11 million illegal immigrants remain in the United States, the demographers say. Despite collapsing job markets in construction and other low-wage work, there has been no exodus among Mexicans living in the United States, the Mexican census figures show. About the same number of migrants -- 450,000 -- returned to Mexico in 2008 as in 2007.
I can't figure out how to reconcile this bit with the previous paragraph, which is no doubt why I'm not a journalist.
Along the border, the signs of the drop-off are subtle but ubiquitous. Only two beds are filled in a shelter here that houses migrants hoping to sneak into the United States. On the American side, near Calexico, Calif., Border Patrol vans return empty to their base after agents comb the desert for illegal crossers.
What say border state Rantburgers about this?
Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials stepped up factory and community raids last year, and the Border Patrol expanded its force by 17 percent in one year, to nearly 17,500 agents. The enforcement buildup along the border, which started during the Bush administration, has made many Mexicans think twice about the cost and danger of an illegal trek when no job awaits on the other side.

Most immigrants now need smugglers to guide them through searing deserts and hidden mountain passes where there are gaps in Border Patrol surveillance.
And gaps in the border fence. The journalist is forgetting that yet again.
In Mexicali, smugglers' fees are now $3,000 to $5,000 for a trip to Los Angeles, immigrants and social workers said. They reported that Mexicans' relatives in the United States, struggling to hold on to their own jobs, no longer had money to lend to a family member to pay a smuggler.
Posted by:trailing wife

#6  Border Patrol vans return empty to their base after agents comb the desert for illegal crossers.

OK I'm a suspicious asshole, Issue the agents a counted number of cartridges, then make the border patrol account for each and every cartridge missing (Used), and anyone caught with more ammo than issued is promptly fired.
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2009-05-16 14:55  

#5   August 2008 ie before the crash

The housing construction boom ended in 2007. Word about no hiring travels fast. Migration will resume when housing does. But that may take some time.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2009-05-16 14:00  

#4  "The figures are based on detailed household interviews conducted quarterly by the census agency in Mexico, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography."

WowÂ…The NPSG. That almost sounds official. You can be sure thereÂ’s an office with phones and desks and everything. There are probably even some big maps on the walls.

"Along the border, the signs of the drop-off are subtle but ubiquitous."

Much like the number of illegal aliens residing in the US. Depending on whom you ask it could 11 million or maybe 20 million. ItÂ’s one of those ubiquitous census thingies. You knowÂ…a giver-take a few million.
Posted by: DepotGuy   2009-05-16 12:26  

#3  I call bullshit. No matter how bad it gets here, it's worse in the cess pool known as Mexico. Reporter ignored the thousand miles of border in Texas. Folks down in Granjeno (where they're building the fence) say they used to see one or two crossing at a time -- now they're seeing them cross in groups of 50.
Posted by: Zorba   2009-05-16 10:01  

#2  Fence and enforcement dividends anyone? How about a community services, ie, school, hospital, police, welfare, etc, cost savings analysis?
Posted by: Besoeker   2009-05-16 07:51  

#1  Fence and enforcement dividends anyone? How about a community services, ie, school, hospital, police, welfare, etc, cost savings analysis?
Posted by: Besoeker   2009-05-16 07:51  

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