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| China-Japan-Koreas | ||
| Why Did Norks Test Nuclear Weapon Now? | ||
| 2009-05-26 | ||
| North Korea conducted its second nuclear test at 9:54 A.M on Monday. The Blue House swiftly convened an emergency meeting of the National Security Council. Chosun Central News Agency (KCNA) then stated, "The Republic (North Korea) successfully conducted a second underground nuclear test on May 25, 2009 as part of measures to strengthen its nuclear power in self-defense. This nuclear test was safely carried out in the light of the explosive power and manipulation of technology on a highly developed level." Although the time was unknown, and today is earlier than most people thought likely, the fact that North Korea planned to conduct a second nuclear test was common knowledge, admitted by North Korea itself. The question many people are asking, though, is why North Korea did it now. First, it could be due to the domestic situation in the North. Since Kim Jong Ils illness, North Korea has faced many challenges to its domestic situation and stability. Especially, the Kim Jong Il regime has now moved to handle the third generation succession and it is causing tensions in the hierarchy. For the proclaimed purpose of forging a strong and prosperous state by 2012, North Korea has recently consolidated the National Defense Commission and maintained its domestic power through personnel changes, in order to bed in the succession ahead of the one hundredth anniversary of Kim Il Sungs birth. However, disagreements on the appointment of a successor to Kim Jong Il within the ruling family or inner circles might well remain. Advancing the date for the nuclear test could have been because the North was trying to clear up disagreements with a unifying hard-line move. Second, North Korea is trying to press the U.S. to hold a bilateral meeting with the North after being acknowledged as a nuclear-armed state. Since Kim Jong Ils illness, the North has been issuing threats and challenging the international community. The second nuclear test is an act cut from the same cloth. At the same time it is an appeal to China to act as an intermediary between the U.S. and North Korea for a bilateral meeting, since China needs and wants to have calm and peaceful neighbors on its eastern flank. Third, Kim Jong Il wants to see South Korean social conflict. He may even be embarking on a plan to "kill" Lee Myung Bak, over and above the "taming" that is standard North Korean negotiating strategy with any new adversary. At this time, during the period of mourning for former President Roh Moo Hyun, Kim may see weakness in the Lee administration. Through this nuclear test, he may be pushing the South to resurrect some form of engagement policy.
First and foremost, the government should not allow conflict between pro- and anti-government factions in South Korean society to spread at this time of crisis. | ||
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #5 Can't sell a product that may be a royal lemon. Have to take it out on the road from the show room to show the customers, it works. It does. Now we'll see the customer interest and purchases increase. Tree bark doesn't have that kind of demand. What else do they have that will generate that kind of income? |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2009-05-26 19:41 |
| #4 Interesting quote from the Belmont club, by twobyfour : 12. twobyfour: A client test for Iran? 29. twobyfour: Just expanding on my terse comment… 1. In the past there were clear indications of co-op between NKor and Iran in the nukes area. 2. How would Iran test their nuke design without arousing a suspicion? They would set aside a shipload of cash and send it to NKor with their design for testing. Everyone would be pointing at NKor (as if they care, cold cash is a cool thing to have despite presses running 24/7), Iran has the “wuzn’t us” plausible deniability and an element of surprise if they deploy before “experts” would even get a whiff of their readiness. Let’s call it a hunch. |
| Posted by: anonymous5089 2009-05-26 13:11 |
| #3 Just to be dicks? Hey, it's kind of a tradition by now, isn't it? |
| Posted by: mojo 2009-05-26 10:53 |
| #2 Why Did Norks Test Nuclear Weapon Now? First: They enlisted Iran's assistance to identify the design flaw and Venezuela's assistance to provide raw materials. Second: They decided how long it would take to fix. Third: They staged an end to the game of footsies they were playing with all the members of the six-party talks by blaming it on some made up crap about whatever political event happened to be convenient, even if it was unrelated in the rest of the world's eyes. Fourth: As a bonus, their earliest available test date fell within a few days of Memorial Day, so they figured what the heck. |
| Posted by: gorb 2009-05-26 01:27 |
| #1 Look... they were going to do it.... but doing it on Memorial Day... lets them thumb their noses at the USA... |
| Posted by: 3dc 2009-05-26 00:24 |