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| Illegal Alien Population Drops By One Third In AZ, 14 Percent Nationally |
| 2009-07-30 |
| The number of illegal immigrants living in Arizona has plunged by one-third in the past two years amid a dismal job market and stiffer enforcement of immigration laws, according to researchers who released a new report. Arizona saw the largest decline of any state, according to researchers at the Center for Immigration Studies, whose report shows that the nation's undocumented population fell nearly 14 percent from the summer of 2007 to the first quarter of this year, following years of steady growth. The report comes as the Obama administration is gearing up to push for major immigration reforms, including a possible legalization program for millions of illegal immigrants in the U.S. The loss of illegal immigrants has had ramifications for the Arizona economy, with some saying the exodus means less of a drain on taxpayer services and others saying the loss has hurt businesses and tax revenue. Last week, Chandler-based Bashas' Supermarkets closed three Food City stores in predominantly Latino neighborhoods in Phoenix and Glendale, which some analysts said reflected the beating many businesses have taken as a result of an exodus of Latino immigrants and their families. The report by the Center for Immigration Studies estimates that the nation's illegal-immigrant population fell from a peak of 12.5 million in the summer of 2007 to 10.8 million in the first quarter of 2009, a drop of 13.7 percent. The center is a research organization in Washington, D.C., that favors less immigration to the United States. The size of the decline suggests that not only are fewer illegal immigrants coming to the United States but also that a significant number are returning home, said Steven Camarota, a researcher at the center and one of the report's authors. "It's a significant break" following years of rapid growth in the nation's undocumented population, he said. "We have never seen this large and sustained decline in the illegal population in this way before." The center's report was based on an analysis of less-educated Hispanic immigrants taken from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. A report last week by the Pew Hispanic Center, which analyzed government population surveys from the U.S. and Mexico as well as Border Patrol apprehensions, found that immigrants, both legal and illegal, are not leaving the country. Randy Capps, a senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, said there is no question the illegal immigrant population has stabilized. But he believes Camarota's report may have inflated the size of the drop because it focused on a narrower segment of the population: less-educated Hispanic immigrants. He said any net decline has more to do with the annual return of illegal immigrants to Mexico in the fall and winter months offset by fewer immigrants coming to the U.S. because of a lack of jobs and stepped-up deportations. After reaching a high of 530,000 in 2007, Arizona's undocumented population now numbers about 350,000, a drop of about 180,000 people, Camarota said. The exodus is good news for Arizona taxpayers, Camarota said, because illegal immigrants tend to work in low-wage jobs and therefore contribute less in taxes than the public services they use. But immigrant advocates say the loss of so many people has been a big blow to the state's economy, where empty storefronts, vacant homes and empty apartments dot many immigrant neighborhoods. "When you lose people, you lose not only workers but people who are consumers, and these people were great consumers," said Elias Bermudez, chief executive and founder of the Phoenix-based Immigrants Without Borders. Bermudez says the center's estimate that 180,000 illegal immigrants have left is too low. "I may even go higher than that, as many as 250,000 people," Bermudez said. "I get two or three calls a day from people who say they are leaving." Capps said he believes the "pause" in illegal immigration to the U.S. should make immigration reform less contentious. "It makes the conversation a little easier," he said. Camarota, however, said the declining population could play both ways. On one hand, it could give a boost to a legalization program because the population is no longer growing and therefore is more manageable, Camarota said. On the other, it could debunk arguments that illegal immigrants don't leave. "Some could say (the illegal-immigrant population) is still a big problem, but we are getting it under control," Camarota said, "while others would say, 'Why have an amnesty (program) when there is an alternative and people will go home?' " |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #7 OldSpook: Don't kid yourself, e-verify is easy to dodge. To start with, there is no rule preventing someone from working 3 jobs "at the same time". Second, e-verify inspections are announced, so suddenly the employees all look different for a day. But their paperwork is good. Third are employees who are allowed to "take work home with them." They are extra productive at home, doing the work of several people, for which they are rewarded. Fourth is that the "cash economy" has really taken off. You can get any kind of work you want for cash, not just unskilled, but skilled labor as well. Brickwork, computer and automotive repair, fine craftsman stuff, welding, machine shop, and any kind of handyman. And, of course, prostitution. But even this has twists and turns. One legal girl I know who has illegal family members, is constantly hit up with marriage citizenship offers from legals. "I'll marry your illegal sister if you'll be my real wife." She also gets a lot of genuine marriage proposals, just on the assumption that she is illegal. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2009-07-30 22:37 |
| #6 #4 - correction: cause not the symptoms doh! |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2009-07-30 22:03 |
| #5 "you lose not only workers but people who are consumers, and these people were great consumers," 2 things wrong: 1 - if they are leaving because they dont have work then they will not have income to be "consumers". 2 - the thing they are best at consuming are public funds (healthcare in the ER, schooling etc). |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2009-07-30 21:56 |
| #4 E-Verify will keep them from coming back. Treat the cause (illegals being hired) not the cause (illegals here). |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2009-07-30 21:54 |
| #3 ACORN will need billions of US taxpayer dollars to make up these lost Democratic votes. |
| Posted by: Iblis 2009-07-30 14:04 |
| #2 Perhaps if we dropped our economy below Mexico's we could get them all to go home. Then. Mexico could deal with the problem of economic illegals from the US. |
| Posted by: Richard of Oregon 2009-07-30 11:43 |
| #1 This is a drop from about 8% of the AZ population of illegals to about 5%. The "Hispanic and Latino" (of any race) in AZ is, or at least was, about 25% of the AZ population. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2009-07-30 09:09 |