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Israel-Palestine-Jordan |
Middle East Cycles: Is the Current Age Permanent or is a New Phase in Sight? |
2009-08-19 |
By Barry Rubin After watching Middle East politics for more than 30 years, it is clear that these events--and the perceptions of them--move in cycles. At times, developments force a more realistic, and at other times a less realistic, understanding of what's going on. Sometimes, sadly, it is only when things go wrong that people in the West wake up. Let's take some "positive examples," in terms of negative developments, as examples 1. 1967 war: Israel is not going to be wiped out, as many in West and Arab world predicted. Its defeat of Soviet allies is perceived as a victory for the West, and Israel begins to be appreciated as a strategic asset. The Arab world's rejection of peace after the war is clearly recognized.I could also give examples of the alternative part of the cycle, but let me just use the current one as the example. Policymakers and much of the public goes in the other direction because they are dissatisfied with the Iraq war, which appears as a failure at the time; President George Bush's alleged unilateralism and his unpopularity at home and abroad; and certain other trends in the West (discussed more below). To a large extent, the spirit of the current age is: Israeli-Palestinian peace is within reach; it's all Israel's fault; Islamists aren't so much a threat as a call for engagement; there's nothing worth fighting about; and many other points you're familiar with. Now, here's the key question: Is this current phase a long-term trend or do we see the distant but approaching end of it? I don't know but I have some thoughts. The argument that this is a long-term new phase of history rests on a number of points: the sharp swing left of Western elites and to some extent public opinion; post-modern, Politically Correct, multi-cultural ideology; the reaction against the Bush Administration; the expansion of a hedonistically inclined Western upper middle class; spoiling by the welfare state; the changes in Europe due to large-scale Muslim immigration; the Obama phenomenon; and other factors. What are the counter-forces? Within Western society there are such things as dissatisfaction with Western elites that seem indifferent to the needs and legitimate concerns of their own people; a reaction against Obama perhaps; economic problems; along with additional points. Examining only the Middle East elements, however, I would suggest the following: --Already it is clear that the Obama Administration's efforts on the Arab-Israeli front have failed. While some of this will be blamed on Israel, policymakers must see the lack of cooperation by Arab states and the Palestinian Authority (PA). If Fatah and the PA swing in a more radical direction under a post-Abbas leadership, this could disillusion people about the ease and importance of solving this issue.I see a critical period at the very end of this year and certainly in 2010. We will begin to see whether this current era is going to be sustained or whether it is as transient as all those which have come before it. |
Posted by:Fred |
#2 I dunno > is the ISLAMIST JIHAD "LOCAL", or "GLOBAL", AMERICA = AMERIKA, GLOBAL WARMING = "PLANETARY/SOLAR SYS WARMING"............@etc. |
Posted by: JosephMendiola 2009-08-19 18:51 |
#1 There will be no change for three and a half years, at least. |
Posted by: Claique Sproing5728 2009-08-19 15:35 |