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Arabia
Al-Qaeda focused on Yemen as launchpad: US
2009-10-02
Harrying them from pillar to post, are we?
[Al Arabiya Latest] Al-Qaeda has suffered setbacks due to U.S. pressure but its presence in Yemen threatens to turn that country into a dangerous base for training and plotting attacks, a top U.S. counterterrorism official said Wednesday.
Isn't that true for any country in which al-Qaeda sets up?
The extremist network has been steadily weakened since its attacks against the United States on September 11, 2001, with its haven in northwest Pakistan smaller and less secure, Michael Leiter, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, told a U.S. Senate hearing. But Leiter said the group's regional affiliates were a growing threat, citing a branch in Yemen as cause for serious concern.

Saudi and Yemeni arms of al-Qaeda announced in January their merger into "al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula" (AQAP), and U.S. officials are worried the group is gaining a dangerous foothold in Yemen.

"We have witnessed the reemergence of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, with Yemen as a key battleground and potential regional base of operations from which al-Qaeda can plan attacks, train recruits, and facilitate the movement of operatives," Leiter said.

"We are concerned that if AQAP strengthens, al-Qaeda leaders could use the group and the growing presence of foreign fighters in the region to supplement its transnational operations capability," Leiter said before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

A suicide attack in August on Saudi Arabia's anti-terror chief Prince Mohammed bin Nayef was carried out by a bomber who crossed from Yemen.

The senate hearing came as reports that more than 30 people in northern Yemen were killed in a series of clashes between the army and its Shiite rebel foes.
Wouldn't it be more likely that the Yemeni Shiites were tools of Iran rather than tools of Iran wielded by Al Qaeda? It seems to me that in other semi-anarchic countries Al Qaeda thrived by getting along with the government rather than directly confronting it. Even in Pakistan Al Qaeda isn't involved in the Taliban vs. government fight, but rather trying quietly to train up its next generation of management and technicians off in the corners of the wilder provinces.
Posted by:Fred

#7  I think we are tapped out on those operations, other than having the US Navy to continue running interference against the pirates.

This should be more of an Intelligence and proxy endeavor.
It's a real complicated area with many different actors. It was months ago when I read up on it, trying to get ahead of the curve, yet I have to dig up my documentation on it to be of any further help.
Posted by: newc   2009-10-02 14:25  

#6  Thank you, newc. Much there to ponder. I can't see us invading Yemen, which really should be Saudi Arabia's lookout, much as Waziristan is Pakistan's. So perhaps the Navy can quietly pick up some Predator work, given that the Air Force is busy shooting at things in the Af-Pak arena?
Posted by: trailing wife    2009-10-02 13:29  

#5  Kinda makes Afghanistan look like a dusty outpost in the middle of nowhere.
Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305   2009-10-02 11:43  

#4  I could be wrong, but it was wargamed this way:

Iran is one of 3 operatives. They have design on the gulf for control over saudi oil among other things.

Saudi arabia has traditionally had more influence in Yemen, but as in Sudan, the country is split Sunni and Shia. Ergo both Saudi Arabia and Iran (Hezbollah) have stake in what goes on there.

Al Qeada is also in the AO. They are working as the Takfirists. Yemen and Sudan gives them control of the gulf region.

If Iran wins, they block Saudi oil.
If Saudi wins, things remain the same.
If Al Qeada wins, They try to use it to topple the Saudi Arabian government by starving them of their exports and imports in Jeddah. Direct influence over Mecca.

Yemen is probablyh the most ripe place for Al-Q to run to. Their next pick is Sudan. With this, they control a pretty hefty slice of the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.


Posted by: newc   2009-10-02 10:54  

#3  Would you be so kind as to expand on your first post, newc? It sounds like the outline of a Rantburg lecture. :-)
Posted by: trailing wife   2009-10-02 08:26  

#2  P.S. Losts of pirated ships are stored in the ports of Southern Yemen. Though their activities have been mostly directed out of Somalia.
Posted by: newc   2009-10-02 01:29  

#1  It is a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Key points to watch are SAADA, JAA Farism and Shafei
The Zaydism in the north / Shapeists
The Sufi influence from Qutar
The Sayidist - (Saudi)

War in assist of border security (Libyan influence)

Marktoob

To corrall the gulf of Aden is the plan, using Yemen and Somalia as the staging areas as well as Sudan is their jackpot.

Yemen is the pay dirt for AlQ now as they have been forced out of almost every other country.
This is our new war abrewin Men.
Posted by: newc   2009-10-02 01:28  

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