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| Dead heat between Owens, Hoffman |
| 2009-10-30 |
| Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has a clear shot to win next week's New York special election and is within one point of the lead, according to the latest Daily Kos poll out today. The poll shows Democrat Bill Owens holding a tiny one-point lead over Hoffman, 33 to 32 percent, with Republican Dede Scozzafava lagging behind in third with 21 percent of the vote. It's clear Hoffman is gaining momentum -- in the Daily Kos survey of the race last week, Hoffman was still in third place, trailing Owens 35 to 23 percent (with Scozzafava at 30 percent). In fact, both Owens and Scozzafava have lost ground since last week's survey, while Hoffman has been gaining steam. This poll is consistent with internal numbers that Democrats are seeing, which is why they've been targeting Hoffman with attack ads this week. Democrats have concluded that Hoffman, with his financial resources and support from the conservative base, is the candidate with the best chance of defeating Owens. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #7 NY 23 just doesn't have the right demographics for ACORN. True. The district is 92% non-Hispanic white. The GOP generally wins a majority of the white vote. The real problem is that Scozzafava and Hoffman are splitting the GOP vote. Note that McCain beat Obama by 12 points among white voters despite losing by 7 points overall, being outspent 8 to 1 and being associated with a marginalized Bush (thanks to a hugely negative media onslaught). Now that Obama is seen to be race baiter par excellence and a jerk, I'd expect the Dems to lose even more of the white vote. The GOP could have put up a scarecrow, and it would have won. I can't believe it chose Scozzafava. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2009-10-30 17:25 |
| #6 heh - they're bringing the |
| Posted by: Frank G 2009-10-30 16:49 |
| #5 forecast is for rain and snow showers during the day on Nov 3 that would also be bad for any freelancing Acorn types |
| Posted by: lord garth 2009-10-30 16:29 |
| #4 I just sent Hoffman $50 (I think). Donation website was wonky; I had to call the main headquarters to make sure they had my correct donation amount. The lady there was very nice, admitted they were having problems with the website (and were trying to get it corrected) and filled out a form to match to my donation to make sure they took the right amount from my credit card. There was constant background talking while we spoke - a very good sign (sound of it was upbeat, though I couldn't make out the words behind hers). Normally, I'd send a check (already did earlier) but it's a little late for that now. Hint to ALL conservative candidates: add PayPal to your donation form. I asked Scott Ott to do it this summer and he did - said it was easy, and even edited it when I pointed out something he'd missed. (Just sent him some more money too, via PayPal.) I learned that politicians can use PayPal from GO DOUG! Kick the high-spending bastard in the a**. |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2009-10-30 15:41 |
| #3 I was going to say something snarky about university campuses, but I don't see any big 'uns in that district. It really is a rural wonderland, isn't it? And I thought the Pennsylvania 5th was rural... |
| Posted by: Mitch H. 2009-10-30 13:13 |
| #2 this is a more difficult area to falsify votes than many others (e.g., in NJ there will probably be dozens, if not hundreds of paid off voters, forged voters, etc.). NY 23 just doesn't have the right demographics for ACORN. |
| Posted by: lord garth 2009-10-30 11:00 |
| #1 If it's close Owens will win after ballots are "found" during the 497th recount. |
| Posted by: DMFD 2009-10-30 06:42 |