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China-Japan-Koreas
China 'Threatens U.S. Hold on S. Korea'
2009-11-20
The U.S. is facing a powerful challenge from China to its status as South Korea's preferred partner, the Financial Times said Thursday. "When George Bush senior visited Seoul as U.S. president 20 years ago, things were simple -- the U.S. was the undisputed main ally and trade partner. Astonishingly, there was only one weekly flight from South Korea to China, the communist foe."

But it added, U.S. President Barack Obama "on Wednesday visits a South Korea where the U.S. is no longer the only show in town. China is now the main trade partner, with 642 flights each week."

The U.S. remains the chief political and military ally of South Korea, but "vital issues such as a trade agreement and North Korea's atom bombs have been sidelined in the U.S., while China plays a greater role in both Koreas," the daily said.

It quoted Andrew Gilholm, a senior analyst at British international security consultancy Control Risks, as saying, "The long-term idea is that Seoul will ultimately drift more towards Beijing's orbit, although less so under President Lee Myung-bak."

With regard to North Korea, the U.S. is clearly behind China.
That's not encouraging.
Obama will send the special representative for North Korea policy Stephen Bosworth to Pyongyang on Dec. 8 for talks to find a solution to the North Korean nuclear issue. Bosworth is also a professor at Tufts University. The daily called him a "part-time diplomat," saying, "Diplomats in Seoul... are unconvinced that Mr. Obama's choice, Stephen Bosworth, is the right man for the job."

"By contrast, China has intervened at a far deeper level, sending its premier, Wen Jiabao, in October," to persuade North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to resume nuclear talks, it added.

With a nuclear threat from the North lingering, "even traditionally pro-American conservative lawmakers in Seoul are now criticizing the U.S. for limiting South Korean ballistic missiles [under the Seoul-Washington missile agreement]. They are demanding Seoul be allowed its own long-range missiles" to deter the North, the daily wrote.
Perhaps the SKors should be allowed to develop nukes ...
But the U.S. still has a chance to make up for its poor showing. As it is a "vigorous democracy with historical suspicions of the regional superpower," South Korea's political ties with communist-ruled China are not as smooth as its economic relations, the FT speculated.
Posted by:Steve White

#8  In kind of related news: Nobama today stated that he was going to encourage the US aerospace industry to step up and assist China in the development and manufacture of their new regional jet; a bird that will be a competitor to the 787, Embraer RJ, and similiar. don't know how that will play in the long term; short term it may provide more jobs, but if it involves any sort of tech transfer ( and my money is on the 'yes' answer) long term we will be sucking.
Up here in the
'Land of the Lost Second 787 Line',
a lot of soon to be out of (Boeing) work second and third tier vendors are looking at this.
Posted by: USN, Ret.   2009-11-20 23:40  

#7  If Japan want's our help they need to tell their people to STFU over our bases in Okinawa.
It's only fair.
Posted by: 3dc   2009-11-20 18:48  

#6  The Japanese might have some thoughts about us leaving Korea, much as I would like to. For better or worse, we've kept the peace in Asia.
Posted by: Albemarle Jelet1799   2009-11-20 14:59  

#5  Most proud folks don't likes the feeling that they owe someone else and they often turn on their benefactor. We need to have plans to get out as quickly as possible in these situations. South Korea should have been defending itself the last twenty years.

Having said I see it as a win if China and South Korea become buddies. Then China will have zero incentive to rock the boat in that area and will have to take responsibility for North Korea.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2009-11-20 14:36  

#4  I hear we could use some additional troops in the Stan.
Posted by: bman   2009-11-20 11:55  

#3  The SKors only give us military access because of existential threats. If NKor ever went away as a threat, we'd be out on our asses the next week. The Koreans just flat out don't much like us, AFAICT.
Posted by: Mitch H.   2009-11-20 09:58  

#2  In the final analysis, this could be a win-win. Skor has long been in China's cultural sphere, and a reunified Korea would only be possible with Chinese encouragement. As long as the US got the Pusan Naval Base for security reasons, it would be a win all the way around.

That is, no more Nork or its nukes and missiles, China and Korea at peace, the US no longer needing to spend a fortune to defend Skor. China sends its illegal Koreans back to Korea. Generally flowers and sunshine all around.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2009-11-20 08:52  

#1  ION WORLD NEWS > JAPAN'S RULING COALITION PARTY WANTS US BASE MOVED TO GUAM OR ISLET [IWO TO Islet 740 miles south of Tokyo] + DEFENSE MINISTRY: EXPEDITE US MARINES MOVE.

* SAME > FM MOTTAKI: IRAN WILLING TO LEND A HAND WITH GRP-MILF TALKS [Philippines]; + MILF: OBAMA WROTE US. WE MET WITH US STATE DEPT. EXECS [11/6/09] BEFORE HILLARY VISIT [11/12/09].

ALso, there appears to be controversy brewing in the Philippines oer whether or not the MANILA GOVT. is, or is NOT, de facto negotiating a MOA [Memorandum of Agreement] wid the country's Muslim separatist rebels [MILF, etc.] over PRO-MUSLIM ANCESTRAL DOMAIN [MOA-AD].
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-11-20 00:18  

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