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| Afghanistan? |
| 2009-11-28 |
| As I was dithering about the yard this weekend trying to get a handle on the various chores I had to do, I began to debate with myself whether it was finally time to clean up all the leaves that had accumulated. The trees looked bare, but the least little wind tended to blow in the leaves from the unkempt conservation area next door. I knew I had to make a decision, but all the variables of my leaf question were not known. As autumn gains in strength and the days grow shorter, time seems to compress and ordinary decisions take on urgency not had before. So in this season of health care bills and continuous economic distress, with falling poll numbers and nit picking from the likes of former Vice President Dick Cheney, President Barack Obama faces not an ordinary decision but what may be the most extraordinarily important question of his presidency; whether to escalate the war in Afghanistan. Let's be fair. As with most of the colossal problems facing Obama, the war in Afghanistan was not of his own making, but as Commander in Chief of our nation's armed forces it falls to Obama to make the best of this war which started in October 2001. The war's stated goal at the time was to find and bring to justice the Al-Qaeda planners of the 9/11 attack on America and to remove the Taliban regime which had given Al-Qaeda a safe haven. To date, Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden is still free and the Taliban are in the midst of a resurgence in power. In November 2007, the London-based International Council on Security and Development (ICOS) estimated that the Taliban maintained a permanent presence in 54 percent of Afghanistan and continued to exert influence on regions outside the central government's sphere of control, predominantly in southern and eastern provinces. By December 2008, the Taliban had expanded its sphere of influence to 72 percent of the country. Politically speaking, President Obama has already come to "own" the Afghanistan war because he campaigned on a commitment to end the neglect of the war and as president has said, "Now I can articulate some very clear, minimal goals in Afghanistan, and that is that we make sure that its not a safe haven for al-Qaida, they are not able to launch attacks of the sort that happened on 9/11 against the American homeland or American interest. How we achieve that initial goal, what kinds of strategies and tactics we need to put in place, I don't think that we've thought it through...." In addition, Obama hand-picked his commander in Afghanistan, appointing General Stanley McChrystal in June of 2009. Unfortunately for the President, the general's request in September for 30,000 to 40,000 additional troops was leaked and the president has since faced mounting criticism about taking what some critics see as an inordinate length of time to make his decision regarding the troop request. Dick Cheney in one interview has called Obama's decision-making process "dithering." One might ask Cheney what he calls his and President Bush's own efforts in Afghanistan the last eight years. Having already sent an additional 22,000 troops at the start of his presidency, Obama has brought the current level of US forces there to about 68,000. If he agrees with his top general, US forces will exceed 100,000 which combined with the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) would yield an armed presence of well over 140,000. History has shown time and time again that insurgencies can be impossible to suppress. Like leaves blowing in from another yard this insurgency in Afghanistan is fueled by extremists coming over from neighboring Pakistan. Fraud in the recent election in Afghanistan has shown that we don't have even a viable central government there to build upon. Incidents of Afghanistani forces turning and attacking allied forces indicate that even Afghanis trained by western forces cannot be wholly trusted. The history of Afghanistan shows that even the most powerful nations on the earth (the Soviet Union, the British Empire) and countless lesser invaders were no match for a combination of religious tribal culture protected by harsh mountainous landscapes. With only bad choices available, one cannot fault Obama for taking his time on Afghanistan. With so many unknown variables, including waning popular support here at home, and awareness that allied-caused civilian deaths are fueling the insurgency, and a growing national debt, the United States just may not be prepared for the long, hard slog that the war in Afghanistan represents. On this Thanksgiving we may not be thankful for a clear mission in Afghanistan, but we can be thankful for a president that understands this reality and is willing to "dither" over the most important decision one can imagine. How refreshing considering the last rush to war that buried us in Iraq. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #7 I care, does bambi? |
| Posted by: newc 2009-11-28 19:31 |
| #6 Okay, bare bones it. India has designs on Afghanistan and are well able to handle it. How do you feel Russia and China. Ask me again why this is highly tactical, or shall I save the administration embarassment for not caring to understand globalgeopolitica? China is in there somewhere as is Iraq and Pakistan. Does no one seem to see this because it is inconvenient or is it for reason of ignorance? Or do they just not care? |
| Posted by: newc 2009-11-28 19:30 |
| #5 Well said Lex. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2009-11-28 12:10 |
| #4 You can also fault the Joker for shamelessly trumping up his support for the "good" war in Afghanistan during the campaign as a way of establishing some foreign-policy cred with non-wacko Dem primary voters. The man pretended to be in favor of pursuing victory there as a way of balancing his calls for retreat from Iraq within 10 months. Obama is as shameless as they come, and deserves all the grief that AfPak will send his administration's way. |
| Posted by: lex 2009-11-28 11:37 |
| #3 ...this war which started in October 2001. Huh? Drivel. The war stated well before but was clearly driven home on 11 September 2001. The Authorization to Use Force, aka Declaration of War, was passed a few days later. Note well subparagraph 2(b)(1) refers to the War Powers Resolution. Attacks on our embassies in Africa and the USS Cole predate 2001, but the likes of this writer just can't see through their own hand wringing to face it. There was no rush, but a long ramp up with continuous acts by the other guy that culminated in a response. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2009-11-28 10:26 |
| #2 Or you'd realize it isn't worth the bones of a Pennsylvanian infantryman and order an orderly withdrawal. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2009-11-28 10:18 |
| #1 "one cannot fault Obama for taking his time on Afghanistan" I fault him. We are not the Russians, the Mongols, or the British Empire. These decisions you make before you take office - especially with the data available to the public. Let the professionals handle it for you. McCrystal is far from incompetent and you appointed him to handle it, so let him handle it. The spring offensive is just around the bend. Armies don't just hop into a plane and deploy. It takes months. 40,000 is the minimum we want on the ground there, were you a real Commander in Chief, you would give him the 60,000 we really wanted and would have done so in short order. |
| Posted by: newc 2009-11-28 09:52 |