The Senate healthcare bill presents a tricky political challenge to Sens. Ben Nelson (Neb.) and Arlen Specter (Pa.), the only two Democrats in the Senate to have signed anti-tax pledges.Americans for Tax Reform, the group which persuaded Nelson and Specter to sign the pledge, will press both lawmakers on the issue during next month's Senate healthcare debate, putting them in an awkward position.
"If they vote for this bill as the written it violates the pledge," said Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, in an interview.
The $848 billion piece of legislation would extend health insurance coverage to an additional 31 million Americans and would impose new taxes and tax increases. An analysis by Republicans on the Senate Budget Committee estimates the bill would raise taxes by $494 billion.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) appears to need every Democratic senator to support the bill because Democrats have failed to muster any Republican backing. The measure needs 60 votes to clear the chamber.
Nelson, for one, knows the political risks of abandoning a campaign pledge. In 1996, he came under heavy criticism for pursuing a Senate seat while serving as Nebraska's governor. The bid violated a 1994 campaign pledge that he would serve out his full term as governor before seeking another office.
Nelson lost the race despite high approval ratings. Political analysts said he was hurt by the pledge. He won a Senate seat in 1998 and is up for re-election in 2012.
Americans for Tax Reform aired cable ads at the end of October pressing Nelson to "keep fighting for Nebraska taxpayers" and to "keep the pledge."
The group argues that Nelson violated his anti-tax pledge by voting for procedural motions to begin debate over the bill and would do so again if he votes to bring it to a final vote.
In an op-ed published Wednesday in the Omaha World-Herald, Nelson defended his vote to begin debate.
"This past Saturday evening, I voted for the Senate to proceed to a full and open debate on healthcare reform with two goals in mind: The first goal is that the Senate, now able to follow normal parliamentary procedures, will produce a bipartisan bill cutting the cost of healthcare for Nebraskans and all Americans," he wrote.
Nelson argued that his second goal was to avoid the prospect of Democratic leaders bringing up healthcare reform under budget reconciliation rules, which would allow them to pass a truncated version of the bill on a fast schedule with only a simple majority.
"The result of the limits on debate and content could be a convoluted bill passed by only 50 senators," Nelson wrote. "That is not what the Senate is about."
Nelson's spokesman declined to comment specifically on pressure from Americans for Tax Reform.