Professor Kevin Anderson, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, believes only around 10 per cent of the planet's population -- around half a billion people -- will survive if global temperatures rise by 4C.
| Possibly. Or the population could respond to the increased growing area, like it has in the past. |
Anderson's warning comes just eight days before global leaders meet in Copenhagen for the most crucial talks on climate change reversal since the Rio summit in 1992. Current Met Office projections reveal that the lack of action in the intervening 17 years -- in which emissions of climate changing gases such as carbon dioxide have soared -- has set the world on a path towards potential 4C rises as early as 2060, and 6C rises by the end of the century.
| I guess they haven't heard about the Climategate emails, not to mention the parlous state of the computer model programs and the invisible state of the actual data. |
Anderson, who advises the government on climate change, said the consequences were "terrifying".
| This is where we point and loudly laugh. |
"For humanity it's a matter of life or death," he said. "We will not make all human beings extinct as a few people with the right sort of resources may put themselves in the right parts of the world and survive. "But I think it's extremely unlikely that we wouldn't have mass death at 4C. If you have got a population of nine billion by 2050 and you hit 4C, 5C or 6C, you might have half a billion people surviving."
| "Me! Me! See me! Me-e-e-e-e-e-e!!! Grant money! Me! Me!" |
| Too late, Professor Anderson. That horse has not only left the barn, but the thief burnt it to the ground after. At this point, the coals have turned completely to ash and are cold. Sorry. |
Efforts at the Copenhagen summit, which starts on 7 December, will focus on action to instead keep temperature rises to no more than 2C -- generally accepted as the threshold for dangerous climate change.
| That is, generally accepted by the kind of people who believe in ignoring contrary evidence. Do try to explain the temperature trend of the last decade. Least squares applied since the middle of the last century doesn't count, I'm afraid, unless you apply least squares since, say, the beginning of the Christian era. |
However, with growing pessimism that a binding agreement on emissions reduction targets will be reached, Anderson warned time was running out.
If ambitious global targets for reductions have not been set by the end of next year, he believes it will be too late to stop emissions rising beyond 2C.
| My dear professor, whatever happened to the ambitious Kyoto targets? I seem to recall if they were not set and met, it was going to be too late... and while Kyoto was set, it was never met, right? |
Last week, Britain and France urged the wealthiest nations to set aside $10 billion annually over the next three years to help poorer countries reduce the output of greenhouse gases.
| You first. Lead by example, do. |
Scotland has set a 42 per cent emissions reduction target for 2020 but Anderson pointed out that even if this was achieved by rich nations throughout the world, it would only give a 60 per cent chance of avoiding a 2C global temperature increase.
| It seems to me China is now the leading producer of CO2, and India is coming up close behind. Perhaps y'all should consider including them in the plan, given that they will lose the most population of all in the coming cataclysm, due to to the combination of high population density and low technology use leading to inefficient distribution of limited resources...not to mention a frightening health care situation incapable of dealing with current insults, let alone successive waves of disaster-caused epidemics. |
Despite pessimism over the past few weeks he was optimistic a legal agreement can still be reached at Copenhagen. He believes leaders are deliberately trying to lower expectations to increase the impact of any success at the summit.
"The worst possible result at Copenhagen is a bad deal where the world leaders have to come home and say it's a good deal when its rubbish," he added.
"That's the real danger -- that they will feel under pressure to sign up to anything. That could lock us into something bad for the next ten years."
Stewart Stevenson, Scotland's climate change minister, who will also be attending the summit, said: "Even quite moderate predictions do suggest that we will have vast movements of people around the world particularly on the borders of desert regions and that associated with that will be loss of life."
| Populations have been moving since the end of the second world war. Mostly from the Third World into Europe and from Europe and Mexico into the U.S. Haven't you noticed all the wonderful new restaurants and music groups, Mr. Climate Change Minister? |
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