For just over four decades Japan has basked in its status as the world's second-largest economy. On current trends, however, that title will be lost this year to a resurgent China that is enjoying annual growth rates the like of which Japan has not seen since the 1970s.
The gap between east Asia's two biggest economies is already narrow. Japan's worst recession since the second world war left it with gross domestic product worth about $5,080bn (€3,700bn, £3,300bn) last year, while Chinese GDP was about $4,900bn. If exchange rates are stable and International Monetary Fund forecasts for 2010 of 1.7 per cent growth for Japan and 10 per cent for China are anywhere near the mark, then the baton will decisively be passed. |