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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Power Split in N. Korea 'Unlikely' |
| 2010-03-17 |
| A "sudden split in the leadership" of North Korea is unlikely but not out of the question, the International Crisis Group speculated in a report Monday. Titled "North Korea under Tightening Sanctions," the think tank's report points out that the Stalinist country has been "shaken by constricting international sanctions" and "extremely poor policy choices." They paid a think tank for that ... Robert Templer, ICG's Asia program director, said, "Instability, a coup d'état or even regime collapse would not be observable from the outside until well underway." Such a scenario could spark a humanitarian emergency demanding international intervention, he added. "International sanctions have reduced foreign exchange earnings, while humanitarian assistance, which feeds millions of North Koreans, has declined due to political factors and donor fatigue," the report said. The North is skillful in forcing its residents, the weakest components in society, to bear the costs caused by international sanctions, it added. Daniel Pinkston, ICG's North East Asia deputy project director, said the North Korean regime is faced with several internal challenges "that in isolation would each be manageable" but if such challenges occur all at once, they could pose a threat to the regime's survival. But the report dismissed fears of a war. "The balance of power has shifted against Pyongyang, and the [North Korean] leadership is not likely to start a war it knows it would lose." |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #4 VARIOUS > Seems SOKOR Officio believes KIMMIE may NOT survive the NEXT THREE YEARS [2013/2013-2015 r.o.]??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2010-03-17 21:39 |
| #3 The ICG's Board and Executive Commitee. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2010-03-17 20:36 |
| #2 Rantburg is a lot better "think tank" than that. Can we get paid now? |
| Posted by: Spot 2010-03-17 08:05 |
| #1 They paid a think tank for that ... And put them up in hotels and paid for their room service and But at least that money bought them some definite speculations they can use. |
| Posted by: gorb 2010-03-17 02:48 |