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| Mighty America's 5 stages of rapid decline |
| 2010-04-08 |
| Imagine you're legendary business guru Jim Collins. Decade ago "Good to Great" and "Built to Last" made him the new Peter Drucker. He's a guy USA Today says would rather be rock climbing than helping companies learn the secrets of making "the leap to greatness." But that was nine years (and two brutal recessions) ago. Then, shortly after the Iraq War started, he was forced back to the drawing boards, and wrote "How the Mighty Fall." Why? His summary in BusinessWeek explains: "Some of the great companies we'd profiled ... had subsequently lost their positions of prominence," including the Bank of America. Why do The Mighty fall? "If some of the greatest companies in history can go from iconic to irrelevant, what might we learn by studying their demise, and how can others avoid their fate?" Then fate did intervene, a call came that got his adrenaline flowing faster than hanging high on arocky cliff: "Would like you to come to West Point to lead a discussion with some great students?" A seminar for cadets? No, "12 generals, 12 CEOs, and 12 social sector leaders ... and they'll really want to dialogue about the topic." What topic? "America!" America? "What could I possibly teach this esteemed group about America?" A lot. The core issue became clear when the CEO of one of America's top companies pulled him aside: "We've had tremendous success in recent years," but "when you are at the top of the world ... the most powerful nation on Earth ... the most successful company in your industry ... the best player in your game ... your very power and success might cover up the fact that you're already on the path of decline?" |
| Posted by:ed |
| #15 I don't necessarily agree with his five stages of decline. As far as causes go, I'd lay much of it at the door of an out-of-control government. This has been going on for a long time. Medicare and Social Security would have been O.K. if Lyndon Johnson didn't put the lock box funds into the general budget and then use them for the funding of all sorts of other things. That said, it is like a sunk cost at this point; doesn't do much good to look back. The thing that has gotten us into the current mess is subprime loans and derivatives. Seniors paid heavily; they lost 7.5 trillion in retirement funds; hard dollars they had saved over a lifetime of work for retirement. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2010-04-08 18:04 |
| #14 I'm going to stick it out thru 2012 but if there is no improvement by then I'm heading for Israel. At least I know what to expect there. |
| Posted by: Flailet White6069 2010-04-08 15:29 |
| #13 Fly me to the Moon. |
| Posted by: Deacon Blues 2010-04-08 15:27 |
| #12 Guatemala? |
| Posted by: lex 2010-04-08 14:57 |
| #11 50k?!? Ten years ago Lex, that well has been poisoned with American and Canadian 'dumbass money' for a while now. Panama is heading down the same path and Belize is in the process. In short, there will be nowhere to go in 10 more years that will not be American prices. At least not anywhere you'd want to live. I guess you could live in some inland mountain town that has no flush toilets for that kind of money, but alas, my last point. I've watched Mexico, Costa Rica and Panama go to dumbass California baby-boomers (present company excluded of course) for the last 10 years, driving up the prices with a "I'll have it at any price!" attitude. |
| Posted by: bigjim-CA 2010-04-08 14:54 |
| #10 I tell my kids: We wouldn't be the first civilization to turn to dust. It could be that a hundred years from now nobody will even remember us. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2010-04-08 14:20 |
| #9 It's not so bad, g(r)omgoru, if you don't mind the fact that everything in all the stores is Made in China. |
| Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305 2010-04-08 14:01 |
| #8 So, how's post-industrial society working out for you boys? |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2010-04-08 13:56 |
| #7 Taking tens or hundreds of billion of dollars out of tax coffers and pumping it into a foreign economy only accelerates the decline. The first stage in fixing the US is to stop the $700B/year leaving the US economy via stupid trade and energy policies. That will put 7-10 million Americans back to work and go a long way toward erasing endemic deficits. |
| Posted by: ed 2010-04-08 13:25 |
| #6 Costa Rica's stable. If the average US retiree in the future will have not more than $20-30k per year to live on, then buying land and a house in Costa Rica for <$50k will become very compelling. Without exporting a large portion of high-cost, low-income elderly Americans, I don't see any way to manage the actuarial crisis we are going to face. iiuc, ERISA law mandates that the pensions be paid. The money ain't there now, the markets won't put these pension funds into the black again, the population's aging-- and this will affect tens of MILLIONS of Americans. The situation's going to get FAR worse than it is already. |
| Posted by: lex 2010-04-08 13:04 |
| #5 localized debacles -- one of which might be a localized nuclear exchange that knocks down the productivity of Persian Gulf oil wells. This could cripple the entire world economy. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2010-04-08 12:58 |
| #4 reasonably stable latin nations does. not. compute. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2010-04-08 12:53 |
| #3 Well, no, we're not going to "fall", but we could very well have a steady and painful multi-decade slide marked by various flashpoints, humiliations and localized debacles. Like states and municipalities going bankrupt, or pension systems declaring themselves unable to meet their obligations, or regions and states finding themselves unable to either develop or retain a sound corporate tax base due to declining quality of life + unsustainably high tax rates.... If you thought Barry's fiscal insanity was dangerous, take a look at the underreported public pensions debacle. Most of them, across the nation, are underwater. When you have an aging population, that's not just a crisis, it's a crisis of survival. My $0.02 is that the only thing that will save us is a combination of harsh medicine (including v. high sales taxes and medicare cutbacks) and large-scale migration out of the US by retirees who have the means and cultural wherewithal to retire in low-cost, reasonably stable latin nations like Costa Rica, Guatemala, Belize, Panama etc. |
| Posted by: lex 2010-04-08 12:41 |
| #2 I tell my kids: We wouldn't be the first civilization to turn to dust. It could be that a hundred years from now nobody will even remember us. They don't believe me and that in itself is frightening. |
| Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305 2010-04-08 12:11 |
| #1 When life looks like easy street, there's danger at your door. -J. Garcia |
| Posted by: 746 2010-04-08 12:08 |