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| Hugh Hewitt: Choices for Charlie Crist and Lindsey Graham |
| 2010-04-20 |
| Gov. Charlie Crist almost certainly cannot beat former House Speaker Marco Rubio for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Florida this year. But Crist almost certainly could be the GOP nominee in 2012 in the race against Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., might be able to power a cap-and-tax bill through the Senate this year with the help of Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, and the assistance of Sens. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass. But Graham will greatly decrease the chances of his friend Sen. John McCain's re-election bid in Arizona if he does so. The choices confronting Florida's governor and South Carolina's senior senator carry with them probabilities of outcomes that have to be weighing on both men this week. Crist is far, far behind Rubio in polling on the race for the Sunshine State's GOP primary. McCain is a handful of points ahead of former Rep. J.D. Hayworth's challenge in the Arizona GOP primary. If Crist bolts the GOP and runs as an independent, his future with the national GOP is damaged beyond repair, and even if he wins the Senate seat, his career as a national figure will be in ruins. If he instead runs a good race as a Republican and accepts a defeat with grace and determination to come back -- as a Republican -- he could do so, as many political figures in the past have come back from losses -- like Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan. Losses don't end careers or cap upward mobility. Bolting a party does. Crist is 53, and a two-year delay in his ambitions is hardly the crushing end that defeat in a three-way scramble would mean. And Graham must know his long association with McCain is a bond that is securely forged in the public's mind, and the mind of the Arizona electorate. Championing cap and tax in 2010 is close to a political death wish for a Republican. Graham may figure his future is so secure in South Carolina that he can survive any policy apostasy, but the same is clearly not true of McCain. The GOP's 2008 nominee has been assembling a successful re-election bid in Arizona with the help of 2008 running mate Sarah Palin and former rival Gov. Mitt Romney. But a finger-in-the-eye play by his closest ally in the Senate for higher taxes in the service of a flawed regulatory scheme designed to address a "threat" that is not widely understood to be immediate or even subject to influence by a single country is an enormous blow to the conservative comeback McCain has been staging. Crist could retool his national image by leading an effort to pass a different teacher tenure and pay reform act, one that would help heal the deep wound he opened with conservatives with a veto last week of just such a bill. Crist could also negotiate with Rubio a pledge for the popular former Florida House speaker's support in 2012 in exchange for Crist's wholehearted support now. John Thune lost in 2002, won in 2004 and is now on the short list of future GOP presidential prospects. Good things happen to politicians who keep themselves on the eligible list. And proposed laws that don't work in some years make sense in others. A cap-and-tax bill that is toxic in 2010 could muster large, bipartisan support in 2011 if the economy is growing, the science less troubled, and a plan for overall fiscal sanity accompanied it. Patience in politicians is rare. We will see in the next few weeks if Crist and Graham have this most unusual of political virtues. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #2 To be honest, I don't see how Graham gets another term in South Carolina unless they have collected more Hispanic voters in the last ten years than I give that state credit for. I wouldn't vote for him, and this comes from a guy who voted for Specter. Twice. |
| Posted by: Mitch H. 2010-04-20 10:25 |
| #1 Hewitt's widely considered a smart commentator. He isn't smart enough to see that gramnasty, c |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2010-04-20 08:52 |