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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Ayatollahs left all alone
2010-07-04
The stunned Iran cannot believe it's happening: The worst nightmare for the Ayatollah regime is taking shape right before its eyes, in the form of a complete chokehold on Iran's economy within a few months. Iran's soft underbelly is in the sights -- oil and gas. The arrogant Ahmadinejad thought this day shall never come, yet the "higher power" that guides him, in his view, apparently no longer works.

The US and Europe have decided to suffocate Iran's economy, no less. This is no longer about playing games here and there or about lukewarm sanctions against Iranian companies here and there. This time, the target is the whole Iranian economy. For Israel and most Arab states, there could be no greater success: The state behind everything that destabilized the Middle East is being threatened with collapse.

At the end of June, the US Congress and Senate approved by a large majority a law banning global companies engaged in ties with Iran's oil and gas industry from coming into the US. This is a comprehensive and strict law that will dry up Iran as it dried up Cuba. Once the law goes into effect, anyone in the most sensitive industry for the Iranians who goes into Iran will not be allowed to go into the US. (While Iran exports oil, it must import refined oil for cars and planes, and therefore its dependence on the world is high.)

This law's effect is already being felt, and energy giants that sell fuel for Iranian cars and planes immediately announced that they're terminating their ties with the rogue, crumbling state. For example, the French Total immediately put an end to its Iran business.

Yet there's more, and that's what hurts Iran the most: The European Union has also imposed a chokehold on Iran's economy. The decision was taken in June by all EU heads of state: As of early July, new investments by European companies and states in Iran's energy, oil, and gas industry will be banned. This is an absolute, comprehensive, and far-reaching boycott. Technical assistance and the transfer of goods and services to Iran's oil and gas industry will also be disallowed. Every violation of this decision will be illegal.

We must keep in mind that the EU is Iran's number one economic partner. About 80% of Iran's revenues come from oil and gas, and therefore this is its soft underbelly. And why are foreign investments critical? Because Iran's wells are growing old, and there is a constant need to renovate them, yet there is no money for it unless it comes as a foreign investment -- which is now banned. Should these renovations not take place constantly, Iran will stop pumping oil and the economy will deteriorate quickly.

The arrogant and unresponsive Iranians are now infuriated with the whole world: The US and EU (the EU will be "gravely punished," Tehran says, calling the Germans "Israel's slaves"), the Russians who abandoned them (according to Iran, Russia is a crumbling super-power. Everyone is crumbling, except for Tehran, of course,) and the Chinese who betrayed them. Where will they go now?
Posted by:Fred

#8  One of the reasons the Mullahs still rule is that the bazaar merchants haven't joined the opposition (expect individually).

It is possible that the new sanctions will move this situation a few more yards down the field but only a few
Posted by: lord garth   2010-07-04 15:28  

#7  "...as it dried up Cuba..."

Let's see, that was what? 1967? Well, don't worry, I'm sure it'll have some effect any day now....
Posted by: Mercutio   2010-07-04 11:08  

#6  The black market will provide, and the secret-police forces will have enough.
Posted by: Free Radical   2010-07-04 11:08  

#5  China
Posted by: Frank G   2010-07-04 10:30  

#4  Delusional.
Posted by: Phosing Big Foot3926   2010-07-04 10:05  

#3  Yeah, Right; remember Iraq how "Oil for Food" went!
Posted by: Zebulon Threremble2404   2010-07-04 08:18  

#2  Dear Mr. Bechor,

I'm a former Nigerian Minister of Finance ...
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2010-07-04 05:02  

#1  Optimistic fellow, isn't he?
Posted by: Pappy   2010-07-04 01:12  

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