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| Africa Horn |
| Time to give al Shabaab killer punch |
| 2010-07-26 |
| [The Nation (Nairobi)] The future of conflict and the future of Kenya's defence establishment depends on its preparedness to face the new challenge of unconventional conflict. The winds of change are blowing, driven by a radically altered geopolitical situation, an evolving information-oriented society, and advancing technology. Military institutions are by their very nature conservative. History has shown that success has often sown the seeds of future failure. Kenya can ill-afford to follow in the footsteps of those who have rested on their laurels and failed to stretch their imaginations. The threat caused by Somalia's extremist militants, the Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (Arabic for "Movement of Warrior Youth"), more commonly known as al Shabaab is real. The group has occasionally threatened to attack Kenya and its neighbours. This threat became manifest with the twin bombings in Kampala a fortnight ago. The attack bore the hallmark of its ally, the al Qaeda. On July 20, the group ambushed a Kenyan patrol contingent and wounded several of our security personnel. With these attacks, the insurgent group should no longer be dismissed as a ragtag militia. The group is an off-shoot of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which splintered into several smaller groups after its removal from power by Ethiopian forces in 2006. The group became fully operational from January 19, 2007 under the leadership of Sheikh Mukhtar Adan Eyrow Robow Abu Mansoor. One of its current leaders is Moktar Ali Zubeyr. The group describes itself as waging jihad against "enemies of Islam" and is engaged in combat against the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and African Union Mission to Somalia (Amisom). It has reportedly "declared war on the United Nations and on Western non-governmental organizations" that distribute food aid in Somalia, killing 42 relief workers in the past two years. Al Shabaab has various foreign fighters from around the world, with recent media reports citing Egyptian and Arab jihadists as the core elements training Somalis in sophisticated weaponry and suicide bombing techniques. With the group not organised and therefore unable to wage a conventional warfare, Kenya's security forces should not wait for them at the border in order to engage them. They should employ a Hybrid Warfare. This involves a mix of direct and covert counter-insurgency operations — pushing the group, scattering it, and partitioning the country into sectors manned by various international occupation forces until the nation is pacified. With UN approval, Kenya should work with neighbouring countries like Ethiopia and Uganda in restoring order in Somalia. The international community will come in handy in delivering the requisite and appropriate equipment. These actions should be real and objective and devoid of past adventurism for them to gain support of the country to be 'liberated'. The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) experiment has failed. Similarly, the involvement of some nations in the conflict, notably Eritrea and some Egyptian elements, should be condemned. Egypt has a long-standing policy of securing the Nile River flow by destabilising Ethiopia, widely seen as the major threat in the Nile basin to its hegemonic use of the Nile waters. This it does by keeping Ethiopia busy in other theatres and diverting its attention from the important international resource. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a leading global authority on security issues, restoring the rule of law in Somalia will have a multiplier effect, the leading being putting to an end the piracy menace in the Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea. Piracy has resulted in the increase in cost of transportation along the high seas bordering the Somali coastline and threatens global petro-energy security. Analysts say international efforts should, besides sending warships, focus on financial networks recycling the tens of millions of dollars of ransoms paid every year. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #4 Kenya is not the final objective. Zimbabwe and South Africa are the endgames. Diamonds and gold. Turning out the Amish cutters in Antwerpen and commandeering the mines. One must always follow the money. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2010-07-26 18:18 |
| #3 yes the UN is worthless in this matter (actually worse than useless because they hinder good actions and assist and reward bad ones) I don't know about the African Union though. They might be worth something here. The Org of Islamic States will probably be in the useless or worse category also. |
| Posted by: lord garth 2010-07-26 16:01 |
| #2 Kenya should not be afraid. Kenya should get mad. Calling on the UN won't solve a damned thing. The AU forces might be helpful, particularly the Ugandan ones given the recent bombing in Kampala, but I wouldn't count on them for much. Yes, allow Somalialand to become a recognized nation-state. Offer Puntland that status for the future if the tribes there cooperate and clean al-Shabaab out (and stop the piracy). But Kenya will have to take the bull by the horns. The attack on the Kenyan patrol was an act of war. Treat it as such. Fire up the Kenyan military, get their ducks in a row, and have them come across the border to stomp al-Shabaab good and hard. Lather, rinse, repeat as necessary. The US could help with intel and logistics. A couple drones would do wonders. Perhaps the Indians would want to help. Point it, Kenya has to take care of this, not the UN. The UN is useless. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2010-07-26 13:33 |
| #1 Kenya should be afraid they will go after Kenya and there is such a huge Somali diaspora there they can hide easily The problem won't go away until the UN first contains then neutralises it. Containment: Recognise Somaliland and Puntland as separate states. Give aid money directly to the governments instead of the TFG. Neutralise: Once the north is buttressed you can make some attack on the south using AU troops - but vastly increased numbers. Maybe call on the nearby French Foreign Legion in Djibouti for help |
| Posted by: anon1 2010-07-26 11:16 |