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Home Front: Politix
Obama Forces Showdown With G.O.P. Over New Start Treaty
2010-11-19
Just two weeks after an election that left him struggling to find his way forward, President Obama has decided to confront Senate Republicans in a make-or-break battle over arms control that could be an early test of his mettle heading into the final two years of his term.

He is pushing for a vote on a signature issue despite long odds, daring Republicans to block an arms-control treaty at the risk of disrupting relations with Russia and the international coalition that opposes Irans nuclear program. If he succeeds, Mr. Obama will demonstrate strength following the midterm election debacle. If he fails, he will reinforce the perception at home and abroad that he is a weakened president.
Wake up NYTimes, the world already knows he is a weakened president
As I said the other day, this is a mistake. There is no compelling reason to ram the NEW START treaty through now. The cuts are modest, the inspections, though useful, aren't absolutely required by either side (a given since we've been doing without them this past year), and the money to be saved is under-whelming. Whereas the potential restrictions on missile defense and nuclear weapons upgrades need to be discussed and vetted thoroughly, since (and yes, I'm a cynic) it's certainly possible that Bambi wants to restrict these -- an own goal. That, I suspect, is what is happening here; Bambi wants to fulfill the progressive agenda by killing missile defense, and is using NEW START to do it.
"Its really high stakes," said Geoffrey Kemp, a former national security aide to President Ronald Reagan and a scholar at the Nixon Center, a research group in Washington. "I would say its the biggest gamble hes taken so far, certainly on foreign policy."

"It is a national security imperative that the United States ratify the New Start treaty this year," said Mr. Obama, flanked by Henry A. Kissinger, James A. Baker III and Brent Scowcroft, all of whom served Republican presidents. "There is no higher national security priority for the lame-duck session of Congress."

The White House has only one Republican supporter, Senator Richard G. Lugar of Indiana. A survey of 14 other Senate Republicans who were considered possible supporters found none who were willing to publicly back the treaty. Ten of them said they were undecided or were waiting for the same assurances as Mr. Kyl, and four did not respond, suggesting that approval may depend on changing Mr. Kyls mind.

Moreover, 10 newly elected Republican senators who will take office in January signed a letter objecting to a lame-duck vote. "Out of respect for our states voters, we believe it would be improper for the Senate to consider the New Start treaty or any other treaty in a lame-duck session," said the letter, which was released by Senator-elect Roy Blunt of Missouri.

At this point, the Democratic strategy is to keep pressing for a deal with Mr. Kyl and to respond to every Republican question in an effort to minimize any pretext for opposition. Democrats would then take the treaty to the floor in December for up to seven days of debate and force Republicans to choose sides. They are banking that Mr. Kyl has been surprised that Mr. Obama is choosing to turn the issue into a public fight.

At the same time, by making it a test of his presidency, Mr. Obama risks making Republicans more reluctant to hand him a victory. Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, has said his top priority is to deny Mr. Obama a second term.

Mr. Samore described the impact in more dire terms. "If we fail to act," he said, "I think it will damage the U.S. reputation as a country thats willing to lead."
Sir, Obama has already damaged our reputation as a country that's willing to lead
Posted by:Sherry

#6  he's trying to get it in time for his meet-and-bow with Medvedev to try and look Presidential. Instead he looks like the petulant narcissistic child that he is
Posted by: Frank G   2010-11-19 20:46  

#5  I smell Soros.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2010-11-19 16:33  

#4  I'm with you, Darth. Indeed, Bambi could have done something in the lame duck session to get an easy victory (e.g., 'compromise' on the tax cut extension), and at the same time polish some foreign policy gravitas by announcing that he WOULD consult with the Pub big-hitters like Kyl on NEW START. That would have been savvy and would have been seen as a nod to the center, which would have left him free (or at least freer) to hang left on other issues.

It's not like he's going to kill strategic missile defense. No matter how clever he thinks he is, all 41 Pubs in the Senate lame duck will stand united against that.

You'd think Mr. Axelrod and Ms. Jarrett would understand how to play the game, but perhaps they don't.

Bambi absolutely needs the Pubs on foreign policy these next two years. He won't get a thing done there without them. I just don't understand the calculation behind the political strategy he's using to try and jam NEW START through now.
Posted by: Steve White   2010-11-19 14:57  

#3  "He is either following orders of a puppemaster, or is the stupidest and arrogant person I have ever seen."

No reason it can't be both, Darth.
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2010-11-19 13:42  

#2  Eh, at least he didn't get Warren Christopher and Zbginiew Brezinski to join that little coven of foreign-policy realists and imbeciles backing him up on this. Because nothing screams "Carter Retread" like flailing around over a nuclear arms control treaty & getting the tar kicked out of you by a hostile congress full of cranky neo-conservatives.
Posted by: Mitch H.   2010-11-19 13:15  

#1  What I don't get is why he is wanting to waste his very little political capital that he has left on this. He could pick the low hanging fruit and extend the tax cuts and some other gainful (for him) bills that no one is too riled up about.

Instead he pushes this and continues to look weak and out of touch.

He is either following orders of a puppemaster, or is the stupidest and arrogant person I have ever seen.
Posted by: DarthVader   2010-11-19 12:53  

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