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China-Japan-Koreas
Norks to avoid military provocations until February: think tank
2010-12-26
SEOUL, Dec. 23 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is likely to refrain from committing another military provocation until at least next February, when the United States is expected to show its "card" for the recalcitrant communist state, the chief of a Seoul-based think tank forecast Thursday.

Nam Sung-wook, director of the state-funded Institute for National Security Strategy, said at a unification forum in Seoul that the North is expected to hold off on carrying out further military provocations against the South until after the U.S. and China hold a summit meeting in mid-January.
Wouldn't do to upstage their Chinese benefactors ...
North Korea, which shelled South Korea's Yellow Sea border island of Yeonpyeong on Nov. 23 after the torpedoing of the warship Cheonan in March, blamed on the North, has repeatedly threatened to conduct further military and even nuclear attacks on the South.

"North Korea launched the latest provocation (on Yeonpyeong Island) after disclosing its uranium enrichment facilities. The moves may be intended to emphasize the urgency of a peace treaty," said Nam. "Through the successive provocations, the North may have successfully drawn international attention. But it may not commit further provocations until when the U.S. discloses its card at its summit with China slated for the middle of January."

He forecast that inter-Korean relations may enter into a new phase between March and April if the outlook for the resumption of the six-party talks on the North's denuclearization becomes brighter.
I forecast clear skies and a high of 80 degrees tomorrow in Chicago ...
"Another unpredictable factor is that the North may attempt to address its internal conflict by continuing to stimulate hostility towards the South," Nam said, referring to the ongoing power succession from North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to his third son, Kim Jong-un.
No kidding. All this has been all about clearing a path for Sonny-Boy ...
"Leader Kim has set up the system (for power succession). But it is not certain yet whether Kim Jong-un has the ability to manage the situation. If Jong-un fails to seize power within six months of his father's death, a Chinese-style collective leadership structure will emerge in the North," he said.
Posted by:Steve White

#4  As for FEB 2011, the ROK = SOUTH KOREA believes that then NORTH KOREA + CHINA ENVOYS plan to meet + hold bilateral talks on Security + Other.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2010-12-26 22:25  

#3  ION PEOPLES DAILY FORUM > CHINA'S MARITIME CAPABILITIES COULD BE A "SITTING DUCK".

ARTIC = US OFFICE OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE [ONI] says that although the CPLAN'S NEW "JIN"-CLASS FBMS gives China a de facto SECOND-STRIKE CAPABILITY, IT IS NOISIER THAN COLD WAR SOVIET SUBS FROM THE 1980's.

IIUC, IOW POST-9-11, 2010 CPLAN = 1980's SOVIET NAVY.

* SAME > MEDVEDEV REJECTS JAPAN'S TERRITORIAL CLAIMS OVER DISPUTED ISLES [All of Southern Kurils + Japan's "Northern Territories" are now part of sovereign RUSSIA] | DISPUTED KURIL ISLANDS ARE "OUR LAND", SAYS MEDVEDEV.

'CUZIN DIMITRI is willing to consider setting up a RUSSO-JAPANESE = INTERNATIONAL? FREE TRADE ZONE [FTZ-EEZ-SEZ] in order to promote Regional peace.

* SAME > [paraph]IMAGES: BATCH/GROUP OF CHINESE FISHING BOATS TIE UP TO DEFY SOUTH KOREAN COASTGUARDS. Chin trawlers demand to FISH-OR-SINK in PRC-ROK disputed area.

* OTOH CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > [Peoples Daily survey] 78% OF CHINESE POPULATION DENOUNCES CHRISTMAS AS "ANTI-CHINESE".

Once again, IMO DIMITRI'S STATEMENTS = INDIRECTLY SHOW THAT CHINA UNILATER NEEDS RUSSIA'S GOVT'S PERMISSION FOR MAJOR CPLA NAVAL, PLAAF AIR UNITS TO ROUTINELY PASS THRU ANDOR OVER THE RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED KURILS' SEASPACE, AIR-SPACE INTO THE ARCTIC + NORPAC. Ditto JAPAN as per SOUTHERN JAPAN + OKINAWA ISLANDS TO CLOSE TO US-PROTECTED TAIWAN.

Again, IMO the DPRK wants to see iff BEIJING = CHINA will accept a MAJOR/POTENT "INTERNATIONAL" ECON PRESENCE AS SET UP INSIDE NORTH KOREA.

DPRK desires INTERNAT FREE TRADE, while RISING CHINA wants CHIN-CONTROLLED, OVERSEAS WARM-WATER PORTS. KIMMIE HAS KICKED THE BALL OER TO MOUD + IRAN, at least for a time.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2010-12-26 21:35  

#2  Dig in, rearm, re-aim, and be ready.
Posted by: Uleger Barnsmell4617   2010-12-26 11:56  

#1  So we wait at N.Kor's convenience until the winter softens?
Posted by: Skidmark   2010-12-26 11:36  

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