An image of the organization's public mascot, taken on a pleasant day:
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| Africa North |
| The Brookings Institution sez "Don't Fear Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood" |
| 2011-02-04 |
| The Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia has sent a shock wave through the Arab world. Never before has the street toppled a dictator. Now Egypt is shaking, Hosni Mubarak's 30-year-old regime faces its most serious threat ever. The prospect of change in Egypt inevitably raises questions about the oldest and strongest opposition movement in the country, the Muslim Brotherhood, also known as Ikhwan. Can America work with an Egypt where the Ikhwan is part of a transition or even a new government? This article seems mostly fair and not over the top. Brookings pretty much argues that the MB coming to power wont be pretty but is not the disaster on wheels other are hyping. Personally I am not that convinced |
| Posted by:abu do you love |
| #17 The Egyptians also have M60s and could likely get parts for those. No military that wants to continue buying equipment from Uncle Sam will sell to Egypt if we tell them not to. The Iranians, on their part, probably want to *buy* parts from Egypt for the American equipment left over from the Shah's reign. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2011-02-04 22:38 |
| #16 The Egyptians also have M60s and could likely get parts for those. A MB-purged Egyptian Army wouldn't stand up to Merkavas, but they would be more than adequate for, say, a venture into South Sudan in support of their northern Sudaneese 'brothers'. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2011-02-04 22:10 |
| #15 Consider the M1A's and F-16s that the Egyptian military has and figure three years down the road after MB has purged the army of the "undesirables" ala Turkey. The Iranians had the latest M60's and F-14's at the time of the revolution. They barely held their own against the downgraded Soviet crap fielded by the Iraqis. The fact that they're using US equipment means they can't get supplies if they do anything we don't like. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2011-02-04 22:04 |
| #14 The MB was tolerated only because Mubarak could use them as a foil when dealing with the US and other western countries. I don't think the Ikhwan is tolerated at all. Operating under various pen names, it's made six attempts on Mubarak's life. The reason it continues to exist is simple - until Mubarak's security services become all-seeing and all-knowing, there's no way to completely stamp it out, any more than the Shah could prevent Islamists from infiltrating his security services. The guy also has to balance the long term need to continually suppress the Ikhwan with the immediate danger of yet another assassination attempt. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2011-02-04 21:59 |
| #13 Don't worry about MB? Depends on whether you're talking about their immediate capabilities or their stated intentions. Consider the M1A's and F-16s that the Egyptian military has and figure three years down the road after MB has purged the army of the "undesirables" ala Turkey. |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2011-02-04 16:26 |
| #12 Brookings is not noteworthy anymore. It's a useless rag now. |
| Posted by: newc 2011-02-04 14:58 |
| #11 One thing that kind of complicates the analysis is that Mubarak and his goon squads have done such a thorough job of suppressing dissent before now that there is no organized opposition party other than the Muslim Brotherhood. The MB was tolerated only because Mubarak could use them as a foil when dealing with the US and other western countries. He could go to a Kissinger or Holbrooke or one of these other "realist school" foreign policy The unintended and unfortunate consequence of that was that if Mahmoud Q. Public, ordinary Egyptian citizen and no fanatic by any means, disliked the regime and wanted to actually do something about it, the Muslim Brotherhood was the only organized and functioning game in town. The same sort of thing happened in Iran in 1979--a lot of people who just wanted the Shah gone and were no fans of the mad mullahs "supported" the revolution because "the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend, but he's someone I can work with." So the question is, how many people are marching alongside the MB because they want to see sharia law and burkhas and beheadings and all that fun stuff, and how many are there only 'cause they want Mubarak gone? There is probably no way to tell for sure, but there is probably a non-trivial fraction of the protesters that fall into the second category. Once Mubarak is gone, will those folks be able to get control, or will the MB do like Khomeni and take over, imposing their own brand of tyranny in place of Mubarak? It's by no means certain that the Mubarak kleptocracy will be replaced by something better, but it's not inevitable that it be replaced by something worse. |
| Posted by: Mike 2011-02-04 13:09 |
| #10 "Don't Fear Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood" An image of the organization's public mascot, taken on a pleasant day: |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2011-02-04 12:15 |
| #9 One wonders, TW, in which language? One would adore swanimote just for that sentence -- indeeed one would. :-) |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2011-02-04 12:09 |
| #8 The Muslim Brotherhood apparently published their plans long ago. One wonders, TW, in which language? |
| Posted by: swanimote 2011-02-04 11:46 |
#7  Trust me. |
| Posted by: Spanky Omailet7330 2011-02-04 11:41 |
| #6 I suppose Brookings considers Zawahiri's membership in the MB as no big deal, and the former Mo Atta's membership as 'old news'. |
| Posted by: Muggsy Glink 2011-02-04 10:26 |
| #5 Yes we should fear them and, for God's sake don't trust them. This is an org that openly proclaims that Quran and Sunnah should be the only guides in running Egpyt. The MB has been very influential in running Sudan and has been involved in the campaign for genocide in Dafur. They also advocate suicide bombers against Israel and against the US in IRaq. The "MB is nonviolent" meme is garbage. It is similar to the denunciation of terrorism that many Muslims preach while not saying that they consider killing Jewish and Christian civilians as resistance and martyrdom, not terror. |
| Posted by: lord garth 2011-02-04 09:15 |
| #4 "The only question I have ..." JFM, the answer is Yes, they are. Both. |
| Posted by: lotp 2011-02-04 08:29 |
| #3 The Muslim Brotherhood apparently published their plans long ago. I've discovered it's best to believe those who go to the trouble of writing out their ideas and plans for the world to see. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2011-02-04 07:18 |
| #2 Thank you people smarter than me for saying that MB in Egypt won't be the rolling disaster every Islam based gov't has proven to be everywhere else in the world. I'll stick with my gut on this one F*U very much. |
| Posted by: Pliny Thrineter6045 2011-02-04 06:42 |
| #1 That was we were told when Khomeny was on teh verge of toppling the Shah. We were aslo told he was respectful of women rights, of religious minorities and of democracy. The only question I have si if they weree morons or of they were leftists whose blind hatred for our civilization made them allies of Islamism. |
| Posted by: JFM 2011-02-04 01:59 |