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Afghanistan
Strategy Page: It's Time This Beast Got Put Down
2011-04-24
The Taliban are entering the death-spiral phase of their comeback campaign. This can be seen by sharply reduced activity in the countryside (where the surge in NATO and Afghan troops has broken the fighting spirit of the Taliban), and the increased reliance on high-profile terror attacks. NATO casualties are down from the same period last year, although the media coverage of Taliban terror attacks might make you think otherwise. The fighting through the Winter was particularly damaging to the Taliban, and recruiting for this year's "Spring Offensive" has been difficult.

It's been known for over two years that this switch in tactics was coming. It's the same pattern seen in Iraq. Moreover, many Taliban leaders are trying to negotiate some kind of deal with the government. Some of these settlements have already been made, and now the Taliban have one less ally and one more target. The terror campaign could go on, intensely, for a year or two. But eventually, the "fighting" Taliban are going to run out of money, men and places to hide.
Posted by:Zebulon Thranter9685

#5  The Taliban are more than willing to back off and show us the way.

Even if we withdraw, the only way we can lose in Afghanistan is if we end military aid to Karzai's administration. Unfortunately, our default policy has been all-or-nothing. When we decided that Chiang Kai-Shek wasn't perfect, we ended aid to him, as the Soviets increased aid to Chinese Communists (and paid with the lives of 100K GI's in Korea and Vietnam). When we withdrew from South Vietnam in 1973, we ended aid to the RVN government, even as the Soviets and the Chinese ramped up aid to North Vietnam (and paid with the lives of thousands of American dead - via loss of deterrence - from then on until 9/11). When the Afghans outlasted the Soviets, we stopped aid to Ahmad Shah Massoud, leaving the door open for the Pakistanis to install the Taliban in power and plot the 9/11 attacks using Saudi cutouts. Here's an illuminating excerpt about the much-maligned Najibullah's staying power:

The civil war continued in Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal. The Soviet Union left Afghanistan deep in winter, with intimations of panic among Kabul officials. The Afghan mujahideen were poised to attack provincial towns and cities and eventually Kabul, if necessary.

Najibullah's regime, though failing to win popular support, territory, or international recognition, was however able to remain in power until 1992. Ironically, until demoralized by the defections of its senior officers, the Afghan Army had achieved a level of performance it had never reached under direct Soviet tutelage. Kabul had achieved a stalemate that exposed the mujahideen's weaknesses, political and military. But for nearly three years, while Najibullah's government successfully defended itself against mujahideen attacks, factions within the government had also developed connections with its opponents.

According to Russian publicist Andrey Karaulov, the main trigger for Najibullah losing power was Russia's refusal to sell oil products to Afghanistan in 1992 for political reasons (the new Yeltsin government did not want to support the former communists), which effectively triggered an embargo. The defection of General Abdul Rashid Dostam and his Uzbek militia, in March 1992, further undermined Najibullah's control of the state. In April, Najibullah and his communist government fell to the mujahideen, who replaced Najibullah with a new governing council for the country.


I suspect a billion dollars a year in military aid to Karzai's administration could keep the country free of Taliban rule. It would certainly be cheaper than the $100B a year we're spending on keeping GI's in-country. Heck, make it $5B, and it would be close to Pakistan's annual military budget of $6.41B, and still way cheaper than a US presence.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2011-04-24 19:34  

#4  Remember you don't have to kill the Taliban, just cripple it enough to allow the other predators in that environment will finish it off. While they have friends, they have also been making many enemies who loath them for the thugs they have become without a mask of religion.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2011-04-24 19:18  

#3  I wouldn't be too quick to write the Taliban out of the game. They are still quite actively training and recruiting teens and the mentally handicapped as suicide bombers in the sanctuary regions of Pakistan, where they enjoy a huge amount of support from the government. More sophisticated weapons and tactics are being developed there as well. It is to their advantage to permit ISAF to enjoy the illusion of success and watch the inevitable Allied pullout. The US military and political structure continues to lament "there is no military solution in Afghanistan." We have essentially admitted defeat and are attempting to find the back door. The Taliban are more than willing to back off and show us the way.
Posted by: Besoeker   2011-04-24 18:04  

#2  Let us wait for a few months first - until after poppy season to see if this is so.
Posted by: newc   2011-04-24 17:47  

#1  If Strategy Page got it right, it is good news.
Posted by: JohnQC   2011-04-24 12:25  

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