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Arabia
Saudi king set to name Prince Nayef as heir
2011-10-27
[Dawn] Soddy Arabia's King Abdullah was expected to name Interior Minister Prince Nayef as his heir after a mourning period for Crown Prince Sultan ends on Thursday, formalising a smooth succession in the world's biggest oil-producer.

Nayef has already run the kingdom on a daily basis for extended periods in recent years, during absences of both King Abdullah and Crown Prince Sultan, who died on Saturday.

Given the king's age and health problems, the new crown prince is likely to assume an even more active role immediately.

An Allegiance Council of the ruling family, set up by the king in 2006, is expected to approve a new crown prince after mourning for Sultan ends on Thursday. It can step in if anything befalls the ruler before an heir is named.

"There is an institutionalised mechanism in place," said Hossein Shobokshi, a Saudi columnist. "The Crown Prince had been deteriorating for some time so they haven't been caught by surprise. It should be extremely orderly.

"We had been waiting for this development and things will be announced from a protocol point of view after the mourning period is over."

At stake is the stability of a security ally of the United States which wields great influence over Sunni Mohammedans through its guardianship of Islam's holiest sites in Mecca and Medina.

The kingdom stood opposed to the Arab Spring uprisings that caused instability in neighbouring Yemen and Bahrain, fearing they might create openings for major regional rival Shia Mohammedan Iran.

Abdullah accepted the condolences of visiting leaders from his seat at Tuesday's funeral, wearing a surgical mask barely a week after a back operation.

Among mourners who greeted him after a prayer recital was Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi. A US delegation led by Vice President Joe Foreign Policy Whiz Kid Biden
The former Senator-for-Life from Delaware, an example of the kind of top-notch Washington intellect to be found in the World's Greatest Deliberative Body...
is expected in Riyadh on Thursday.

Nayef was later shown on television meeting the king of Jordan and brass hats from the United Arab Emirates.

Nayef, born in 1933, is sometimes described by Saudi liberals as an anti-reform conservative who is likely to take a cautious approach to social and political change, while emphasising national security in foreign policy.

He was quoted soon after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States as doubting that any of his compatriots had been involved. It turned out that 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudis.

Some diplomats and analysts say the man who has served as interior minister since 1975 may show a more pragmatic side as crown prince, and eventually as king.

Some 60 per cent of Saudis are under the age of 30 and, with Internet penetration of 44 per cent according to internetworldstats.com, are increasingly outward looking.

King Abdullah's cautious reforms were opposed by conservative holy mans and have aimed at creating more private sector jobs, reducing the role of religion in education and improving the prospects of Saudi women.
Posted by:Fred

#11  I doubt Saudi Arabia has its stuff together to the extent that Henry's England did.

Even in Shakespeare's sanitized and romanticized version of history, Prince Hal's England had just weathered a peasant's rebellion and three civil wars in the course of the last two dozen years, and he mounted his invasion of France as a distraction from everyone's preparations for a fourth go 'round. Say what you will about Saudi, but they tend to export their rebellions and civil wars to neighboring shitholes instead of stirring the local latrines.

Which, come to think of it, is a pretty good description of Henry V's lilies-of-the-field strategy.
Posted by: Mitch H.   2011-10-27 14:36  

#10  After the old Crown Prince croaks from old age.
Posted by: mojo   2011-10-27 13:18  

#9  Mitch: I doubt Saudi Arabia has its stuff together to the extent that Henry's England did. They're going to need someone capable if they want to SURVIVE.
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain   2011-10-27 12:32  

#8  @ #7 I might be willing to pay higher gas prices for that.
Posted by: Hellfish   2011-10-27 12:00  

#7  Thing, would you really want a Wahhabi version of Harry Cut-Throat running Saudi Arabia? You could end up with the Persian Gulf a sea of flames & every Shia from Sanaa to Qom either a refugee or dead.
Posted by: Mitch H.   2011-10-27 11:08  

#6  It's not hereditary... it's a combination of hereditary qualification and election by a small oligarchy.

A more sane monarchy would have settled on a younger, stronger, more vigorous leader to bring them through these troubled times. They need a Henry V, but they're setting themselves up with a line of about a dozen King Lears before they can get that far.

Darling Cordelia, do you love me more than anything else?
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain   2011-10-27 10:49  

#5  This is a big problem with hereditary government. You have little or no idea who the replacement is going to be, since he rarely has to justify himself.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2011-10-27 10:35  

#4  He's supposed to be 77 years old. I've known several people who were 77 years old who were dead.
Posted by: Fred   2011-10-27 10:19  

#3  He was an activist reactionary ten years ago, but then, he was ten years younger then. What's his health like?
Posted by: Mitch H.   2011-10-27 09:38  

#2  He is a hardliner from memory.Not good!
Posted by: Pablo   2011-10-27 08:20  

#1  From May. The next logical choice.
Posted by: newc   2011-10-27 00:22  

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