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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Russia Expects N. Korea to Collapse by 2020 |
| 2011-11-06 |
| The Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russia's foremost national policy think tank, takes the imminent collapse of the North Korean regime as a given in a special report published recently. IMEMO concludes that Korean reunification led by South Korea coincides with Russia's national interests. IMEMO spent years to prepare the report, which is part of the Russian government's 20-year master plan and was published in September. The 480-page special report obtained by the Chosun Ilbo has five pages referring to the Korean Peninsula. It says the regime's collapse is "accelerating" and that although reunification may not be fully achieved, the two Koreas will take "actual steps" toward reunification in the next two decades. IMEMO believes the 2012-2020 transfer of power from North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to his son Jong-un will trigger the collapse of the North. The leadership crisis will lead to a power struggle between "bureaucrats" with foreign business connections and "military and security officials" with no outside links, the report said. Then over the following decade, a provisional North Korean government would be established under the aegis of the international community so that the North comes under South Korean control, while the North's military will be disarmed and modernization get underway, the report forecast. IMEMO said the North Korean economy will gradually be absorbed into South Korea's in the process and that around 1 million North Korean supporters of the old regime will flee to either China or Russia. IMEMO said the emergence of a reunified Korea led by South Korea would have a "positive effect" on Russia's position in the Asia-Pacific region. And with the situation on the Korean Peninsula stabilizing, Russia would "strengthen its diplomatic power in the Far East" and gain a "reliable partner," it added. This would create opportunities for Russian businesses and the government to participate in massive transport, energy and industrial projects and create new demand for Russian energy, timber, metal and petrochemical exports, as well as machinery. A diplomatic source said, "It has been an established theory that Russia and other regional powers surrounding the Korean Peninsula favor the status quo rather than reunification, but here is a top Russian think tank publicly welcoming reunification led by South Korea." IMEMO forecast reunified Korea to see annual GDP growth of 3.5 percent before reunification (2011-2020), 2 percent during the process of reunification (early 2020s) and 5-6 percent in the final stage (late 2020s). The think tank projected that reunification would lay the groundwork for a new leap for the Korean economy. Korea's GDP, which stood at $1 trillion in 2010, would rise to $1.7 trillion by 2020 and $2.3 trillion by 2030, IMEMO projected. Reunified Korea would have a per-capita GDP of $30,000, and its population would stand at between 76 million and 77 million. The economic development of reunified Korea would have a strong correlation with the formation of a "three-sided" system in the region that includes China and Japan, according to the report. This would boost trade with other regions. By the early 2020s, North Korea's rapid economic development would lead to a trade deficit, but reunified Korea would be able to achieve a trade surplus by the late 2020s, the report added. |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #8 WORLD MILITARY FORUM > RUSSIA: NORTH KOREA WILL COLLAPSE BY 2020 [entered the stage of collapse], + EITHER BECOME UNIFIED OR ELSE SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMICALLY [ + hence also Polically] DOMINATED BY SOUTH KOREA [no longer China?], the latter domination by SoKor to occur between 2011 - 2030 even iff no per se inter-Korean Unification takes place. and * SAME > RAND: NORTH KOREA WILL COLLAPSE, RULING ELITE TO SURVIVE + ESCAPE. ROLE OF CHINA IN POST-COLLAPSE NORTH KOREA TO DETERMINE EFFECTIVENESS OF US-ROK INTERVENTION. * SAME > SCHOLARS: CHINA'S AGING POPULATION, TROUBLED MASS/UNIVERSAL EDUCATION SYSTEM ARE MAJOR FACTORS IN ITS EFFORTS TO EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ASIA. China's steadily expanding numbers of rural migrants to the big cities typically lack the basic education + technological proficiencies, etc. necessary to compete for jobs agz those from Urban + Suburban areas, even as per low/lower-paying physical labor jobs, FORCING CHINESE COMPANIES TO SEEK "QUALIFIED" WORKERS OUTSIDE OF CHINA??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2011-11-06 23:08 |
| #7 Not while China can use the Norks for third party intimidation. |
| Posted by: Jack Phuting9685 2011-11-06 19:27 |
| #6 The Russians seem to be considering the effects of timing, and when would be optimal for them (and by extension perhaps 'less optimal' for others?). I'm sure the Chinese are working the same equation from their perspective. It seems that until both parties believe at the same time that the time has come, the Norks will continue to receive critical forms of assistance under the guise of humanitarian aid and continue to hang on by their fingernails. |
| Posted by: gorb 2011-11-06 12:04 |
| #5 Partition North Korea. Allow the north and northwest to be brought into the Chinese orbit as an 'autonomous region'. Allow the southern and northeast parts to be incorporated into South Korea, either as wholly owned new provinces or as part of a 'confederation'. The Chinese get access to raw materials. The ROK gets a land link to Russia for the pipeline and for rail. You could let the Chinese have access (not sovereignty, just access) to ports on the eastern side; that would make them happier still. This way you divide the burden. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2011-11-06 11:44 |
| #4 Russia should be encouraged in this thinking. Mostly that a unified Korea would not in any way be a threat to Russia, on the contrary, that it would be one less nuisance in the region, with lots of positive benefits to just about everyone. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2011-11-06 09:22 |
| #3 ..they saw what happened to W.Germany when it absorbed the East and isn't too keen about the economic consequences. Even a better reason to negotiate with the Chinese about dealing with a sizable portion of the North for 'co-development' and 'co-administration'. The Chinese are playing their historic claim to that area anyways, make them eat the costs. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2011-11-06 08:05 |
| #2 I am not so sure that South Korea would pay the cost of reunification? |
| Posted by: BernardZ 2011-11-06 05:27 |
| #1 If everyone quits propping up the Norks, the govt will fall pretty quickly, and the world can rescue the North Korean people from their nightmare. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2011-11-06 04:26 |