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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Russia warns against air strike on Iran
2011-11-07
Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavov has warned that a military strike on Iran would be a "very serious mistake" with "unpredictable consequences", after Israel's president Shimon Peres said that an attack was increasingly likely.
One serious consequence would be a demonstration of how the S-300 air defense system doesn't work very well, and that would be a serious consequence indeed for Russia's defense exports...
In comments published in the Israeli daily Hayom, Mr Peres said that "the possibility of a military attack against Iran is now closer to being applied than the application of a diplomatic option".

"We must stay calm and resist pressure so that we can consider every alternative," he added.

The drumbeat of war is expected to grow louder this week when United Nations nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, issues its most detailed report to date on nuclear research in Iran.

It will provide what Western officials and experts regard as irrefutable evidence that Tehran is compiling the capacity and skills to build a bomb. It will be used as leverage for a fifth round of sanctions at the UN, but could also provide Israel, with the tacit support of Washington, to finalise plans for an air strike.

Among its findings are that Tehran was helped by nuclear experts from two countries, believed to be Russia and Pakistan. The Washington Post reported that key assistance was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet nuclear scientist, hired by Iran's Physics Research Centre.
Another serious consequence is exposing all the Russian connections to the Iranian nuclear program...
Posted by:tipper

#7  BHARAT RAKSHAK > [Guardian.UK] IRAN NUCLEAR REPORT: IAEA CLAIMS IRAN WORKING ON ADVANCED WARHEAD.

ARTIC = However, the new IAEA Report doesn't provide anything new information, i.e. no real "smoking gun" to criticize Iran.

Also in Artic, ISRAELI EXPERT AVNER COHEN = believes 70-80% of Israel's attack threat is sheer bluff intended to intimidate = inspire? Iran allies RUSSIA + CHINA, etc. into putting pressure on IRan to halt its NucDev.


versus

* SAME >[Yahoo News] PAKISTAN TRAINS 8000 TO PROTECT NUCLEAR ARSENAL.

I provide the above to illustrate why any successful or effective US, Israel Commando strike = direct action agz Iran's NucProgs needs to be large-scale from the onset.

> Airpower alone, to include latest underground "bunker-busters, may damage + delay Iran's nuclearization drive, but NOT stop it.
> Use of SpecFors + other elite Units, albeit likely in never-before-deployed mass scale, is consistent wid the US-NATO/West concepts in the post-AFPAK, IRAQ struggle agz Radical Islam.

As Radical Islam violently andor electroally takes over more NUclear or NUclear-potential States, ONE OF THE FIRST THINGS THE NEW ISLAMIST GOVTS-REGIMES WILL DO IS PROTECT + "HARDEN" THEIR COUNTRY'S NUCPROGS AGZ US-NATO ATTACK.

LATEST ADS WEAP SYS as complemented by LARGE NUMBERS OF GROUND MIL SECURITY, AFVS, MILITIA + NEARBY AIR BASES, ETC.

Osama at Abbottabad = Pak Military Region-Zone.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2011-11-07 22:44  

#6  Is that not at happened when Israel destroyed Syria's nuclear effort a few years ago,

I believe (and someone who actually knows, feel free to pipe up) that the Syrians were running an old-skool centralized Rooski air defense system.

Rumor has it the Juices were able to stuff false data into the poor thing and it never even woke up.
Posted by: SteveS   2011-11-07 17:25  

#5  Exactly, TW (poor Ruskies, once they figured out how to counteract American stealth tech, they thought they were home free).
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2011-11-07 14:07  

#4  This weekend I watched the news and one of the talking heads interviewed an Israeli official. She asked him Israel would actually attack Iran. The fellow talked around the subject for a few minutes but the general answer was "yes".

One could tell she did not like that answer at all and quickly changed the subject.
Posted by: kelly   2011-11-07 13:13  

#3  Whatcha gonna do about it, Vlad?
Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305   2011-11-07 11:30  

#2  Is that not at happened when Israel destroyed Syria's nuclear effort a few years ago, g(r)omgoru?
Posted by: trailing wife   2011-11-07 09:58  

#1  Probably worried that IAF strike will go through Iranian (Russian built) air defense detection/acquisition without being noticed.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2011-11-07 09:27  

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