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Home Front: Politix
Obama's Virginia Defeat
2011-11-12
[Wall Street Journal]
Every Republican incumbent--52 in the House, 15 in the Senate--won. The state GOP is looking at unified control over government for only the second time since the Civil War. This is after winning all three top statewide offices--including the election of Gov. Bob McDonnell--in 2009, and picking off three U.S. House Democrats in last year's midterms.

Topline figures aside, what ought to really concern the White House was the nature of the campaign, and the breakout of Tuesday's election data. Mr. Obama may have big plans for Virginia, but the question is increasingly: him and what army?

Elected state Democrats--who form the backbone of grass-roots movements--couldn't distance themselves far enough from Mr. Obama in this race. Most refused to mention the president, to defend his policies, or to appear with him. The more Republicans sought to nationalize the Virginia campaign, the more Democrats stressed local issues.

State House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong felt compelled to run an ad protesting that it was a "stretch" for his GOP opponent to "compare me to Barack In case you missed it, this week, there was a tragedy in Kansas. Ten thousand people died -- an entire town destroyed Obama." After all, he was "pro-life, pro-gun and I always put Virginia first." (Mr. Armstrong lost on Tuesday.)

Virginia Democrats were happy to identify with one top official: Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, who is providing a lesson in the benefits of smart GOP governance in battleground states. Criticized as being too socially conservative for Virginia when he was elected in 2009, Mr. McDonnell has won over voters by focusing on the economy and jobs. His approval ratings are in the 60s, and he helped raise some $5 million for local candidates. He's popular enough that Democrats took to including pictures of him in their campaign literature, and bragging that they'd worked with him.

Mr. McDonnell has been particularly adept at connecting with the independent, white-collar voters Mr. Obama used to win Virginia in 2008. That crowd lives in North Virginia's booming exurb counties of Prince William and Loudoun, and presidential races hinge on their votes. Mr. Obama's 2008 victory in Virginia rested on his significant wins in both Loudoun (8%) and Prince Williams (16%).

Yet Tuesday's results showed the extent to which that support has reversed. Loudoun in particular proved an unmitigated rout for Democrats. Republicans won or held three of four of the county's Senate seats. It swept all seven of the county's House seats. It won all nine slots on the county's Board of Supervisors, and pretty much every other county office. In Prince William, the story was much the same. This is what happens when a recent Quinnipiac poll shows Mr. Obama's approval rating among Virginia independents at 29%.

Democrats are now arguing that turnout (about 30%) was too low to prove anything, but then again, the particularly low Democratic turnout suggests that, on top of everything else, the White House really does face an enthusiasm gap. It's still got time to try to remedy that problem, and some other Virginia fundamentals. But going by Tuesday's results, Mr. Plouffe might need to start considering Electoral Plan C.
Posted by:Fred

#12  Or even if he does. Does anyone remember who Colin Powell endorsed in the primaries?
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain   2011-11-12 23:07  

#11  "Country Club bozos" is normally used in reference to Republicans.

That said, if the GOP candidate doesn't meet their standards, I'm sure we'll see a repeat of the 'creased pants' vote.
Posted by: Pappy   2011-11-12 21:22  

#10  to the tune of almost 2 trillion in debt

Did you mean $2 trillion/year?
National debt:
Jan 1 2009: $10.011 trillion
Today: 14.984 trillion
Posted by: Eohippus Phater7165   2011-11-12 17:17  

#9  Water, you may be operating on a false premise there. What evidence do you have that the Country Club Bozos WANT Obama to lose? After all, president Goldman-Sachs has done them pretty damn well (to the tune of almost 2 trillion in debt).
Posted by: AlanC   2011-11-12 14:32  

#8  but a 3rd party just might. - A strong warning to the Country Club bozos to shape up.
Posted by: Water Modem   2011-11-12 14:07  

#7  Gerrymandering won't save Obama next year, but a 3rd party just might.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418   2011-11-12 13:58  

#6  ...Maybe, maybe not. Remember it not who votes that counts but who counts the vote.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2011-11-12 13:54  

#5  I don't think that there were too many cemetery voters - I had to show a picture id in order to vote. (I showed them my retired military id, rather than my driver's license.)
Posted by: Rambler in Virginia   2011-11-12 13:51  

#4  ..well, counting those 57 states in the tally, I wouldn't be absolutely sure. /sarc off
Posted by: Procopius2k   2011-11-12 10:46  

#3  One of the political blogs mentioned that, due to gerrymandering, the Dems got 39% of the popular vote and ~50% of the seats.

Unfortunately gerrymandering won't save Obama in 2012, since it is a nationwide election.

Al
Posted by: Frozen Al   2011-11-12 10:32  

#2  It was a typical low turnout election so it's even more surprising, since you'd think the Dems could get their reliables, including the cemetery votes, to the polls. That the Pubs had the better of it really suggests that things have gone bad big time in Virginia for the Dems.
Posted by: Steve White   2011-11-12 10:01  

#1  The state House and Senate wins were against a redistricting map recently drawn up by the former Dem majorities.
Posted by: Iblis   2011-11-12 09:44  

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