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| Africa North |
| Flash: What, Me Pessimistic? |
| 2011-12-02 |
| h/t Gates of Vienna Since last February I have predicted that the Muslim Brotherhood would win elections in Egypt. People have thought me very pessimistic. Now the votes are starting to come in and…it’s much worse than I thought. But my prediction that the Brotherhood and the other Islamists would gain a slight majority seems to have been fulfilled and then some. According to most reports the Brotherhood is scoring at just below 40 percent all by itself. Why worse? For two reasons: First, the votes we now have come from the most urban areas of the country. If there are Facebook sophisticates they’re going to be in Cairo and Alexandria. If the moderates do that bad in the big cities, what’s going to happen in the villages up the Nile? If the fascist party came in first in some European countries Social Democratic districts you know you are in trouble. The Brotherhood came in first in Cairo and Alexandria. Think about that. Of course there are millions of migrants from rural areas in those places but that’s also where the middle class, such as it is, lives. Second, the moderate parties didn’t even come in second they came in third or close to it. The Salafists—that is people who are even more radical than the Muslim Brotherhood—came in second. That they did that well is a surprise. That they did that well without bumping the Brotherhood down a notch is really shocking. |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #10 IIRC after their defeat in the 1967 Six-Day War AGZ iSRAEL, NASSER = EGYPT tried to close the Suez to any + all types of US-Western shipping, but ultimately changed their mind to deny access to only US-Western Warships [includ military logistics] when they saw how their own + Arab economies were badly suffering, + espec after how alternate routes only seemed to strengthen Israel. The USSR at the time preferred to send mostly weapons to the ME, NOTSOMUCH FOOD + CONSUMER GOODIES - IT TOOK THE FAILURE OF THE POST-YOM KIPPUR WAR 1973 OIL CRISIS VEE THE US; + RISE OF MUSLIM-LED DOMESTIC TERROR THREATS AGZ REGIONAL MUSLIM GOVTS. TO REMOVE THE RESTRICTIONS. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2011-12-02 22:50 |
| #9 Military coop in ..3, 2, 1 .... |
| Posted by: BrerRabbit 2011-12-02 17:18 |
| #8 Who do you think Hamas are?. The Brotherhood's moronic son-in-law? |
| Posted by: Pappy 2011-12-02 16:47 |
| #7 At some point the Muslim Brotherhood was going to be in charge of an Arab country. Who do you think Hamas are? |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2011-12-02 15:58 |
| #6 At some point the Muslim Brotherhood was going to be in charge of an Arab country. Now they have to govern a country rather than oppose its rulers. That's not going to be easy--the country is broke and can't feed itself. I think the MB will be too busy trying to prevent another Egyptian uprising to stir up much trouble in the region. |
| Posted by: De-Nile 2011-12-02 15:50 |
| #5 My concern is the Canal. I look for problems there next. The Suez Canal has been closed for many years at a time, and the world seemed to get along without it. How long can Egyptians do without eating? |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-12-02 15:24 |
| #4 "They import half their food. They have money for two months of imports". Many worked in Libya also. Major problems to overcome. The pipeline to Israel and Jordan keeps blowing up so no money coming in from that. My concern is the Canal. I look for problems there next. |
| Posted by: Dale 2011-12-02 10:12 |
| #3 My guess is 1 year. (war with Israel) They import half their food. They have money for two months of imports. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2011-12-02 09:29 |
| #2 What's the over-under on Egypt resuming a war with Israel? My guess is 1 year. |
| Posted by: AlanC 2011-12-02 09:03 |
| #1 The Arab spring quickly degenerates into the Islamist winter... |
| Posted by: Fred 2011-12-02 08:52 |