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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
In the first full week of campaigning, albeit interrupted by a major holiday, Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) presidential candidate Enrique Pena Nieto extended his already commanding lead over the field of rivals by 20 points, according to graphical data published by Milenio news daily.
 Enrique Pena Nieto |
The latest poll shows that his other two major rivals have fallen behind, while a third, Partido Nueva Alianza (PANAL) candidate Gabriel Quatri de las Torres has gained points.
Pena Nieto has 50 percentage points, while Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota has 30 percent and Partido Revolucion Democratica (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has 19 percent.
 Josefina Vazquez Mota |
For the first time since his campaign began Quatri de la Torres polled more than one percent of those surveyed with 1.2 percent.
The latest poll does not factor in undecideds, which in terms of candidate and party preference is the second largest percentage of preference after the PRI candidate.
When undecideds are factored in, Pena Nieto still has a commanding lead over his field of rivals with 38.4 percent, while Vazquez Mota has slightly increased her share since last week with 21.1 percent. Lopez Obrador trails Vazquez Mota with 14 percent, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points since last week.
Pena Nieto's lead has also increased when undecideds are factored in by 2.6 percentage points.
Party preference, an indication of how votes will split for legislators, has increased for PRI as well from last week with PRI gaining 1.4 percentage points while all the other parties have fallen, PAN by three points now at 18 percent over 21 percent last week and PRD relatively steady having fallen less than one tenth of a percent.
Polling data suggests that at the moment PRI is doing everything right, while PAN is startng to slip even from its distant 2nd place spot. If these trends continue, Vazquez Mota's campaign may be forced to rethink her decision to continue with Roberto Gil as her campaign manager, this following two campaign gaffes, including less than optimal attendance by crowds at rallies.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com