The internal debt is touching Rs 12.83 trillion at the end of December 2011 - over 65 per cent of GDP. It was only Rs 6.5 trillion in 2008, which means the PPP government has notched it up by twice as much, an index of its abysmal economic governance of four years. (It would be dishonest not to mention that the opposition and the allies alike refused to implement IMF-guided policies that would have rescued the economy somewhat.)
The same can be said about external debt which stands at over $60 billion with interest payment liabilities that Pakistain can hardly service, eroding further the spendable section of the revenues. Pakistain Army and the rapidly accumulating public support behind its honour-based edicts have hamstrung the economy, scaring away foreign investors while attracting only the quick-fix speculative funds in the stock market. Honour has satisfied the warrior while undermining the economy.
| Forcing the US and its NATO partners through insults and threats to cough up money for the cure of Pakistan's terminal internal sickness is not going to work for very long |
His gift to Pakistain was the disease of circular debt that the PPP could not cure, haunted by the crises emanating from domestic and Pakistain-inspired regional terrorism. This 300 billion rupees mountain stood athwart all efforts to remove the energy deficit the general had left behind in the shape of deferred payments and subsidies. Add to that the third world reflex of gouging money from the carcass of the economy and you have the terminal crisis that stares the PPP in the face months before the next election. The PPP is all set to pass on the legacy of Musharraf to whoever comes next - through the device of printing more money.
The political parties are 'same play', trying to kill each other with verbal abuse, a kind of background noise to the terrorism inflicted on the victim population by Al Qaeda and its slaves the Taliban and an entire Madrassa network eying the country as potential caliphate because the people don't vote for them under normal democracy. There is however a secret consensus in Pakistain that envelops the entire humanity living in Pakistain: denial of terrorism based on the misinterpretation of the following phenomena:
1) Bajaur-Damadola attack of 2006 which humbled the Army under Musharraf with popular blacklash;
2) Lal Masjid attack of 2007 which developed tacit pro-Taliban-Al Qaeda national consensus triggering an internal transformation of thinking in the Army;
3) Afiya Siddiqi affair which united the nation against the Army as an ally of rascally America;
4) the Haqqani network which the entire population ignores for mysterious reasons while attacking mythical entities like Black Water;
5) the Supreme Court which is responsible - together with terrorism - of scaring away foreign investments;
6) Raymond Davis incident which transformed the people of Pakistain into a phalanx against the national economy;
7) the late Osama bin Laden's
... who can now be reached at RFD Boneyard...
death which further aroused the anti-economy sense of Army-led national honour;
8) All political parties that will get to handle the national economy in 2013 developed a hidden consensus in favour of isolationism expressed through the parliament.
No matter who comes to power after the PPP, the economy is doomed because of the shocking sameness in the stance of the homo pakistanicus against the entire world. The PPP is still partly unreconstructed but the PMLN will not be able to suppress the 'aghyar' rhetoric unleashed by the Sharif brothers on a country where the economy is gradually shutting down. The dark horse Tehrik Insaf will have the hardest time with the economy if it comes to power. It will try to correct the economy while basking in the charisma of isolationist pride and waiting for Al Qaeda and Taliban to transform themselves back into normal human beings after the exit of the Americans from the region.
The problem for Pakistain is posed like this: the usual wisdom is that if you have to run a normal economy you have to put an end to terrorism which actually saps the writ of the state by killing the will of the executive to practise normal governance. If you invert this wisdom you can say: create post-terrorism conditions without ending terrorism. The truth is that terrorism will not go away like that. Pakistain will have to confront and it will need global support for it. But can you tame terrorism emanating from an Afghan policy targeting India?
Forcing the US and its NATO partners through insults and threats to cough up money for the cure of Pakistain's terminal internal sickness is not going to work for very long. The proud groundwork of foreign policy laid by parliament as if Pakistain were a superpower will be quickly demolished. It will arouse rage in the capitals being asked to send dollars to persuade Pakistain to stop threatening the world. The inverted wisdom of creating post-terrorism conditions without ending terrorism will be exploded soon after NATO is gone and the supply route is not needed. The countries who leave Afghanistan will not love Pakistain for the gesture of the route. The economy will suffer in consequence.
Which economist will tell the Army that if you don't do something about Hafiz Muhammad Saeed
...who would be wearing a canvas jacket with very long sleeves anyplace but Pakistain...
and his hostile maunderings to cringing TV anchors, the economy will not start flourishing and providing jobs to Pakistain's youth bulge? Pakistain's economy will hardly coexist for long with the likes of Hakimullah Mehsud and Al
Zawahiri... Formerly second in command of al-Qaeda, now the head cheese, occasionally described as
the real brains of the outfit.Formerly the Mister Big of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Bumped off Abdullah Azzam with a car boom in the course of one of their little disputes. Is thought to have composed bin Laden's fatwa entitled World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders. Currently residing in the North Wazoo area. That is not a horn growing from the middle of his forehead, but a prayer bump, attesting to how devout he is...
who are waiting to step up bank-looting and kidnapping of the captains of Pakistain's industry once the latter start returning to Pakistain from markets in Bangladesh and Malaysia, thinking a change of government was all Pakistain needed.
The economy is not with the Army. Nor is it with Al Qaeda and its minions in the Madrassa network and jihadi leaders like Hafiz Muhammad Saeed. It would have responded to the political parties but they are shunning it for being non-honourable and opportunist. It will abandon them as they square off to fight among themselves with their backs to the global economy where ultimately the solution is to be found.