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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Uzbekistan withdraws from Russia-led military alliance
2012-07-06
But I think we all saw this coming...
Uzbekistan has withdrawn from a Russia-lead military alliance of former Soviet states, triggering a wave of speculation that it wants closer ties with the US.
Dear Mr. Putin (I'm afraid I've lost track of whether he is president or prime minister this month) isn't going to like being embarrassed like that, but American foreign relations are being run by the smartest man in the room and Mrs. Bill, neither of whom has ever been called another Henry Kissinger.

Strategically located on the southern fringe of Central Asia, Uzbekistan is an important but controversial partner for the West, which needs its support to withdraw military kit from neighbouring Afghanistan from 2014.

The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) didn't give any official reasons for Uzbekistan's withdrawal from the alliance when it announced the news in Moscow last Thursday but analysts and commentators were quick to describe it as a move towards the US.
Now we'll wait and see Putin's counter-move...
"The United States will make Uzbekistan its strategic ally, will provide financial and military assistance, assume some security guarantees, close its eyes to human rights violations," the Russian newspaper Kommersant quoted Vadim Kozyulin, an analyst for the Moscow-based think tank PIR-Center, as saying.

A southern exit route from Afghanistan through Pakistan has closed as Washington's relations with Islamabad have soured forcing it to look to Central Asia and especially to Uzbekistan, which has the best railway network links in the region but also one of the worst human rights records.

The US already operates an important base at Manas airport outside Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, which it uses as a stage-post to ship equipment and soldiers into Afghanistan. Its withdrawal along the so-called Northern Distribution Network will be far more reliant on Uzbekistan and its Soviet-era railway links with Russia.

Lilit Gevorgyan, an analyst covering the former Soviet states for IHS Global Insight/Janes Information Group, agreed that potential closer military ties with the US was a driving factor behind Uzbekistan's decision to quit the CSTO.

"It is very likely that the US would prefer a transit base in Uzbekistan like Manas in Kyrgyzstan, strengthening the Northern Distribution Network," she said in an emailed note. "As a CSTO member, Uzbekistan must co-ordinate any potential plans to host Western military with the CIS military bloc -- hence having more of a free hand in deciding on the US base could be the main factor behind Tashkent's decision to withdraw."

The CSTO was established in Tashkent, the Uzbek capital, in 1992 and, as well as Russia, also includes Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Armenia and Belarus. Uzbekistan previously suspended its membership of the group from 1999 until 2006.
Posted by:Steve White

#2  Once again, they show themselves to be the weak link in the great chain of socialism.
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain   2012-07-06 21:35  

#1  and Pak's hand just got weaker
Posted by: Frank G   2012-07-06 09:37  

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