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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Iran Facing a Rough '13 |
| 2013-01-04 |
| For Iran, 2013 could be one of the most challenging years-both at home and in relations with the outside world-since the 1979 revolution. The Islamic Republic faces the potential of stronger economic sanctions and even an Israeli and/or U.S. military strike because of its intransigence in complying with U.N. resolutions on its nuclear program. The world's only modern theocracy also must deal with twin domestic challenges-- deepening malaise among the young and increasing tensions among the political elite. Home-grown problems could outweigh the regime's foreign policy woes. Iran and the world's major powers have all indicated an interest in a new round of diplomatic talks to end the long standoff over Tehran's controversial nuclear program. The gap is still enormous, however, after three rounds in Istanbul, Baghdad and Moscow in 2012. Khamenei is not easily swayed by pressure. He views Iran's uranium enrichment program not only as a natural and legal right, but also a measure of Tehran's success against the United States. Tehran also spins the so-called Arab Spring as an "Islamic awakening" modeled on its own Islamic revolution. However, Khamenei is also savvy enough to know that the same political changes represent new challenges for his regime as well. And other regional powers, most notably Turkey, are increasingly questioning Iran's geopolitical aspirations. Iran begins 2013 with growing economic woes. The economy is now the Islamic Republic's Achilles Heel. Iran has been successful in educating millions of Iranians and rebuilding its infrastructure after the Iran-Iraq War. But it has not reached the potential of a country with one of the world's largest reserves of oil and natural gas and a well-educated and resourceful population. Khamenei needs tens of billions of dollars in oil revenues to maintain a vast and often loyal network that has maintained his rule for the past 23 years. But the world's toughest sanctions, soaring inflation, and the plummeting value of Iran's currency produced the perfect economic storm in 2012. And Tehran's economic crisis will not end any time soon. Iran's oil exports declined by as much as one-half in 2012. But chronic mismanagement is the chief cause of Iran's economic problems. Corruption across the regime has contributed to the economic crisis. The Revolutionary Guards, which control large parts of the economy, are also reportedly corrupt. The most powerful military organization in Iran has charitable foundations (bonyads) that are tax-exempt and largely free of government scrutiny. The Guards have also been linked to illicit smuggling and narcotics trafficking. Some veteran officers have reportedly amassed significant wealth. The Islamic Republic begins 2013 with anxiety among both the public and the government over the impending presidential election. The 2009 election produced the deepest political schism since the revolution, with millions turning out in massive popular protests across the country to challenge the official outcome. It gave birth to the opposition Green Movement and created an enduring crisis of legitimacy for the Supreme Leader. The 2013 election may be more tightly scripted than any earlier presidential race to prevent serious debates or competition. Candidates are technically vetted by the Guardian Council, but they must also have the Supreme Leader's unspoken approval. As the regime becomes increasingly militarized, candidates may also need to either have ties to the Revolutionary Guards or be amenable to its interests. The spectrum of rivals reflects the unprecedented divisions. All were among the early revolutionaries who ousted the shah and hung together for more than a decade. Ahmadinejad, a hardliner who had Khamenei's full endorsement just four years ago, is now perceived as a threat to the Supreme Leader's hold on power. But the most important challenge to the regime may still come from the Green Movement. Its symbolic leaders, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, are under house arrest but they remain a potent threat to Khamenei's rule, perhaps even more than an Israeli military strike or U.S. sanctions. |
| Posted by:Pappy |
| #4 '13 isn't looking so good here either. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2013-01-04 15:28 |
| #3 "Rough '13" > Apparently, so will the US + rest of the World. * TOPIX > IRAN HAS NOT YET CROSSED THE "RED LINE": ISRAELI PM [Netanyahu] TELLS AMBASSADORS. IMO Iran never will iff it can help it - ITV the burden is on US-Israel, etal. to initiate de facto war or conflict while Iran nuclearizes + expands, modernizes its military capabilities. UNLESS SHTF BETWEEN RULING SUNNI GOVTS + LOCAL SHIA POPULATIONS IN NEIGHBORING GCC STATES, IRAN WILL STAY ON THE "STRATEGIC DEFENSIVE" VEE THE US-ISRAEL AMAP ALAP. * IIRC TOPIX [paraph]> OBAMA TO SEE NO MORE POLITICAL VICTORIES IN 2013. Title + Artic to that effect. * RENSE > COMPLEXITY THEORISTS PREDICT FOOD RIOTS, CIVIL UNREST BY APRIL 2013. ARTIC = Threat of death at the hands of the US Govt. + Army-Police security forces MAY NOT BE ENUFF to deter Americans from STRONG OR ARMED/VIOLENT CHALLENGE + OPPOSITION TO SAME. Forecast-Predictive Models courtesy of the NEW ENGLAND COMPLEX SYSTEMS INSTITUTE. * CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > KIRCHENER [openly] DEMANDS THE UK RETURN FALKLANDS TO ARGENTINA | [Telegraph.UK] DAVID CAMERON [UK PM] MUST RETURN FALKLANDS TO ARGENTINA, CRISTINIA KIRCHENER [Argen PM] DEMANDS IN OPEN LETTER. * SAME > DON'T KNOW WHETHER YOU KNOW IT BUT THERES A WAR GOING ON IN HONG K0NG. Pro-Independence or "UK-come-back" protestors versus Beijing. * DEFENCE.PK/FORUMS > DISINTEGRATION OF CHINA DUE TO ECNOMIC COLLAPSE? | [icyte.com] STRATFOR'S PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE: CHINA COLLAPSE, GLOBAL LABOR SHORTAGES, NEW AMERICAN DOMINANCE. - End of cheap Chinese labor. - Demographic aging - China + whole of East Asia. - Rise in internal dissensions due to increasing wealth - demands for more Econ, Political "liberalization" = freedoms + de-regulation. YES, BUT IMO ALSO DUE TO "PEAK OIL/ENERGY/ RESOURCES" AS THE LATTER IS DUE TO INTERNATIONAL GOVTS, PERTS SCIENTIFIC DISAGREEMENT + MISCALCULATION. Again, the OWG Govts-Perts consensus is that there is no consensus - at best, we get PCorrect "agree to disagree" or "cannot confirm or deny" Waffle cover stories. THE US + ITS SUPERPOWER STATUS WILL ALSO BE SERIOUSLY AFFECTED. * SAME > AFGHAN WAR LEADER [Gulbuddin Hekmaytr] VOWS FRESH ATTACKS [AMAP] ON NATO TROOPS, i.e. to kill as many US-NATO troops as possible before 2014. Also labels Afghanistan as a "failed" Govt-State. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2013-01-04 01:04 |
| #2 You don't know how tough! |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2013-01-04 01:03 |
| #1 Not to mention that the city of Isfahan is radioactive. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2013-01-04 00:24 |