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China-Japan-Koreas

S. Korea should weigh departure from NPT, lawmaker says

2013-04-10

WASHINGTON -- In an effort to counter North Korea's military threats, South Korea should keep all options on the table, including withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), a senior South Korean politician said Tuesday.

Oh that's going to make the Chinese very unhappy...

"Facing an extraordinary threat to national security, South Korea may exercise the right to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as stipulated in article 10 of the treaty," Rep. Chung Mong-joon, former leader of the ruling Saenuri Party, said, addressing the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. "South Korea would then match North Korea's nuclear progress step-by-step while committing to stop if North Korea stops."

I'd bet that the ROK could start a nuclear weapons program tomorrow and have a working device in a year, and have a device that would fit on an IRBM inside two years. In that same two years they could design and build the new missiles that could plant that device plus/minus ten meters on whatever spot in North Korea they wanted.

The two-day forum opened Monday to discuss nuclear nonproliferation, deterrence, disarmament and energy, drawing 800 experts and officials from more than 45 countries and international organizations, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The seven-term lawmaker emphasized that Seoul should be given this leeway as a "law-abiding member of the global community who is threatened by a nuclear rogue state."

Some in South Korea even say, he noted, the only way to solve the North Korean nuclear problem is for the country to follow the India-Pakistan example, or the case of Israel.

It's a fair point: you can only tolerate for so long being threatened by crazy neighbors before concluding that you need to protect yourself.

The maverick politician, who apparently has presidential ambitions, likened the situation to a setback in a gun-control campaign.

"It is like a member of the gun-control lobby in good-standing whose neighborhood gangster just acquired assault rifles and threatens him," Chung said. "In order to buy a gun to protect himself and his family against the gangster, he now wishes to withdraw his membership temporarily."

South Korea acceded to the NPT in 1975. It has since operated nuclear reactors for non-military purposes.

He reiterated calls for the U.S. to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons in Korea in order to send a political message not only to Pyongyang but also to Beijing.

"North Korea, and for that matter China as well, should know that South Korea has this option if it persists in possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear proliferation in East Asia will unfold at the invitation of North Korea endorsed by China," he said. "The question for China is 'Does it want South Korea to bring back U.S. tactical nuclear weapons or develop its own nuclear capability?"

The U.S. pulled all of its tactical nuclear weapons, which can be delivered by artillery or missile, out of South Korea in 1991 as part of President George H.W. Bush's Presidential Nuclear Initiative.

Chung said the international community needs to re-set its North Korea policy, adding that decades-long efforts to resolve the crisis have failed.

"The story of how the global community failed to prevent an isolated, failing state from acquiring the ultimate weapon will go down in the annals of diplomatic history as one of the most spectacular and consequential failures," he claimed.

Chung emphasized that it is more important to figure out North Korea's nuclear capabilities and take necessary precautions than trying to understand the intentions of its leadership.

Despite his political clout, Chung's suggestions do not seem to reflect mainstream views in the South Korean political circles, which still put more emphasis on the alliance with the U.S., trusting Washington's nuclear umbrella. His calls may sound more radical than realistic, as many express worries over adverse effects to the alliance, efforts for denuclearization talks with North Korea, and Seoul's status on the global stage.

Though if Pudgy continues Mr. Chung is going to sound more and more like the sweet voice of reason...

Amid North Korea's continued threats and provocations, however, a growing number of people in the South appear to be supportive of Chung's idea. Two-thirds of South Koreans polled shortly after North Korea's third nuclear test on Feb. 12 backed a "domestic nuclear weapons program," according to the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a Seoul-based think tank patronized by Chung.

The U.S. government took a dim view of Chung's demand, saying Washington stays committed to the defense of South Korea.

"The ROK (South Korea) is a committed partner and global leader on strengthening and maintaining the integrity of the NPT and the global nonproliferation regime," a State Department official told Yonhap News Agency, asked about Washington's position on Chung's views.

The alliance between the two nations "is fully capable to deter, defend against, and respond to the threat posed to our allies by North Korea," the official added, requesting anonymity. "The United States remains steadfast in its commitment to the ROKs defense, including the extended deterrence provided by our conventional forces and nuclear umbrella."

Posted by:Steve White

#6 If SK builds nukes, so does Japan, Australia, and Taiwan.

Things will get very messy, very fast for China.

Posted by: rammer 2013-04-10 18:39

#5 If SKor goes, then the door is open for Japan and soon thereafter their OK and PI 'allies'. Eisenhower's containment of China will be in place again.

Posted by: Skidmark 2013-04-10 14:43

#4 Point a few of them at Peking while you're at it, Mr. Chung.

Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305 2013-04-10 11:52

#3 SKor's SMS message system is the coolest on the planet. I has the concept of groups and the ability to have one 16bit integer worth of groups (64K groups) You can send SMS messages to say only folks that belong to a set of groups.
This allows one to ..say.. page all artillery Cols currently within 50KM of Seoul.
Really a useful tool when your enemy is so near.

Posted by: Water Modem 2013-04-10 09:56

#2 "and have a device that would fit on an IRBM inside two years."

And it you could play Angry Birds with it while placing cellular calls.

Posted by: crosspatch 2013-04-10 04:32

#1 The problem is that the American response to 9/11 has raised reasonable doubt whether the so called 'umbrella' exists at all.

The Norks might not intend and might never have intended to attack the US. But if there was a WMD terrorist attack, sponsored and supported by a third party, the US might logically blame them and they'd become the target of overwhelming and devastating retaliation.

This should be an unacceptable risk even to the Norks unless they've come to the not unreasonable conclusion that America wouldn't retaliate under any circumstances, i.e. they've stopped believing in deterrence.

Posted by: Elmerert Hupens2660 2013-04-10 03:12

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