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| A military analysis of the Fox mystery man's fantasy rescue plan | |
| 2013-05-05 | |
On April 30, 2013, Fox News aired an interview with a supposed member of U.S. Special Operations Command who said that members of "C-110," who were training in Croatia on September 11, 2012, could have both arrived at the Benghazi consulate in 4-6 hours and arrived before the second attack on the annex during which Tyronne Woods and Glen Doherty were killed. The mystery man critiques the Obama administration's decision-making, yet offers no information as to how C-110 would have influenced the battle in such a way that the outcome would have been different. Perhaps because it was actually impossible for C-110 to arrive before the attack, and if they did, they would not have been able to do anything that would have prevented our heroes, Woods and Doherty, from being killed. "C-110" stands for Charlie Company, 1st Battalion, 10th Special Forces Group. It is a unique company within the 10th SF Group in that it is trained as a Commander's in-Extremis Force (CIF). Each of the five active duty SF Groups has a CIF and they respond to important threats within their geographic area which are below the threshold for, or availability of, elements from the Joint Special Operations Command (like the Delta Force). A CIF has approximately 40 operators. According to the Pentagon timeline posted by CNN, the enemy attack began at 2142 and all US personnel were out of the consulate by 2330. By 2330, Ambassador Christopher Stevens and the foreign service information officer, Sean Smith, were dead. President Obama was briefed at 2300 and SOF were approved to launch from Croatia (C-110) and the United States (Delta Force) at 0239 and 0253 respectively. At 0515, the attack began against the annex. Doherty and Woods were killed by mortar fire shortly thereafter. Obama gave the launch order at 0239. The mystery operator said 4-6 hours. That's 0639-0839. Woods and Doherty died at 0515. An Air Force C-17 was evacuating personnel from the Benghazi airport at 0740. Mystery man and Fox News can't add. Strike one. For argument's sake, assume Obama gave the launch order 10 minutes after he met with General Dempsey and Secretary Panetta at 2300. Four to six hours turns into 0310-0510. Six hours, however, would have been impossible. If the Commander of European Command coordinated with his counterpart in Africa Command as soon as the National Command Center informed General Dempsey at 2230 and they diverted a C-17 to Croatia in anticipation, it is still highly unlikely the plane would have been on the ground in Croatia before midnight; it takes an hour to fly to Croatia from Germany and a crew would have had to have gotten ready, briefed, examined contingency plans, and fueled the plane. From Zaton Military Airport in Croatia, it is over 900 miles to Benghazi, which would have taken approximately two hours in a C-17 cargo plane. Zaton is on the coast and it more likely the CIF would have flown out of Udbina Airport, but this is a best case scenario. Assuming the Air Force was willing to land a C-17 at the Benghazi airport with an unknown security situation, once on the ground, the 40-man CIF would have then had to have moved to the annex which was 30 km away. Moving such a far distance would have required vehicles. 40 operators can move in 8 HMMWVs, which can fit into one C-17. However, did they have the vehicles with them? Did they have everything on the training mission that they needed to go into combat? If not, it would have taken more time for someone to get everything ready. Maybe the man of mystery is creative and planned on renting cars from Avis (yes, Avis has a location at the Benghazi Airport) and using stealth to get to the consulate in a move akin to the French using taxis to get to the front in order to stop the Kaiser's hordes back in 1914. Mystery man is really a cook who has never been on a deployment. Strike two. Even if one of them had Avis First and the cars were waiting on the runway, the timing would have been iffy. Parachuting would have been another option. There is a large, open field close to the U.S. consulate at the southwest intersection of Third Ring Road and Shan Al-Andulus Road that could have accommodated the CIF. However, one is defenseless while parachuting, so it is a good idea to insert a good distance from the action to ensure one is not shot before his boots hit the ground. The Benghazi Zoo is only 3 miles from the consulate and the combination of trees and animal cages would have provided good cover, as well as entertainment, in case someone saw 40 people parachuting into the middle of the city. Assuming magical planes were waiting for the CIF and they were somehow able to physically get to the annex before 0515, mystery man failed to mention that Doherty and Woods were killed by mortar fire. Forty operators armed with rifles and light-machine guns can neither stop mortar rounds nor determine from where the mortar is being fired. The only thing the CIF would have done had they gotten to the annex before 0515 is created more targets and overcrowded the consulate. Even if the CIF was on ready 5 (fully armed, sitting in the aircraft with pilots at the controls) in Sigonella (the closest European base to Benghazi) with advanced warning of an attack but unsure of the time, and they launched at 2232 on only-in-Hollywood orders from someone other than the president, they would not have been able to do anything about Stevens and Smith's deaths, nor stopped the mortar rounds. Strike three. The person in the interview is a clown and I am incredibly disappointed in the news for not using Google. Billy Birdzell served as a U.S. Marine Corps infantry officer and special operations team leader from 2001 to 2009. He is currently pursuing a master's degree in security studies at Georgetown University. | |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #20 He might have difficulty landing a job in the SOF community Pappy, but perhaps he knew that already. :-) Maybe he can get a job with Google - it's apparent he knows how to use 'Earth'. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2013-05-05 20:12 |
| #19 It also won't work against the Jihad Kong. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2013-05-05 19:52 |
| #18 The App won't work in the lush jungles of Benghazi, SW |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2013-05-05 18:15 |
| #17 All I know is this reads like something bill mahar writers might write after watching Act of Valor. Forty operators armed with rifles and light-machine guns can neither stop mortar rounds nor determine from where the mortar is being fired. There isn't an Ap for that? |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2013-05-05 18:06 |
| #16 He might have difficulty landing a job in the SOF community Pappy, but perhaps he knew that already. :-) |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2013-05-05 16:37 |
| #15 1. This is in Foreign Policy. Not exactly an unbiased publication. 2. Unless Mr. Birdzell is still 'in the loop', he cannot possibly have intimate knowledge of the SOF situation four years after his departure from the Marines. 3. It's also highly unlikely that, after four years away from active service in the Marines and the SOF community, Mr. Birdzell has intimate knowledge of what assets were in-theater at that time, what the current SOP and contingency plans were, what AFRICOM and the other commands were doing at the time of the assault, et cetera, et cetera. 4. The Benghazi timeline is still not set in concrete; I've revised my own many several times since last September, plus the ones I have obtained from open sources (including CNN) vary. On a personal (and quite unprofessional) note: It will be very interesting to see where Mr. Birdzell gains employment upon completion of his degree at Georgetown. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2013-05-05 16:20 |
| #14 The problem I have with Mr. Birdzell's analysis is that it is retrospective: Because we now know that Woods and Doherty died shortly after 515, or so he says, we might as well have taken our sweet time launching a rescue effort, because it wouldn't have gotten there in time to save them. At the time, the assumption had to be made that Woods and Doherty -- what with them being skilled and determined operators -- would hang tough. Doing something may not have saved them, but doing nothing was certainly far worse. |
| Posted by: Matt 2013-05-05 14:12 |
| #13 Let there be no mistake, the decision to abandon a US diplomatic mission, annex, or personnel overseas which are under attack could have only come from one man. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2013-05-05 12:42 |
| #12 For the decision to be made there wouldn't be enough time, I'm wondering how could they have known how long this attack would last? To not even make an attempt. For Ty Woods to give up his position identifying the mortar site he knew he'd have back up. I am so very angry with this extreme coverup, and with Hilary's what difference does it make comment, Jay Carney's it was a long time ago comment and especially Obama continuing with his campaigning at the time disgusts me to no end. The White House is scrambling to cover their tracks and I want justice and see these clowns kicked out of office. |
| Posted by: Jan 2013-05-05 12:28 |
| #11 If they exist, Congress can subpoena them. If they have been subsequently wiped, that tells you a lot |
| Posted by: Frank G 2013-05-05 11:03 |
| #10 We'll likely never see them, but those UAV feeds along with the audio would be very revealing. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2013-05-05 08:00 |
| #9 Just exactly how fast does the CIF have to get there, if air assets are providing covering fire in the interm? The RED FORCE will likely break contact if an armed Predator fires Hellfire(s), or fast movers show up, or additional personnel and firepower arrive via HALO (high altitude low opening) parachute, or other insertion method. If nobody shows up in 3-4 hours or less, RED FORCE can pretty much assume the facility has been written off. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2013-05-05 07:52 |
| #8 Said it before: Although laser designators were after my time, I would guess painting a target is a waste of time at the very best if you're not sure you have somebody ready to shoot for you. Even be in commo with a shooter ready to drop the hammer. So it seems likely that the SEAL had some hope of somebody shooting for him. Not just a "hope", but the real deal ready for targetting info and a weapons free order. Just exactly how fast does the CIF have to get there, if air assets are providing covering fire in the interm? Acting as if it's CIF on the ground or nothing seems to be illegitimately shaping the argument. |
| Posted by: Richard Aubrey 2013-05-05 07:14 |
| #7 If those SEALS carried in a AN/PEQ-1A or some other Laser Designator variant, chances are very high they knew they had a predator overhead or were expecting some other type of platform. If you've got a Pred and overhead cover, your chances of survival are pretty good. The capabilities which airborne FMV (Full Motion Video) brings to the game are virtually endless. If those SEALS were actually talking to the Pred, well that brings up an entirely new dimension. Placing effective mortar fire on top of a building requires a bit of skill or a large amount of luck...or both. I too would like to know more about the mortar fire that killed these two brave men. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2013-05-05 06:38 |
| #6 Hooah RANGER ! |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2013-05-05 06:17 |
| #5 I understood that the mortar team was operating from within visual range of the consulate. I also understood that the whole firefight, up until the use of mortars, was recorded and transmitted by an unmanned drone overhead. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2013-05-05 06:12 |
| #4 Assuming magical planes were waiting for the CIF and they were somehow able to physically get to the annex before 0515, mystery man failed to mention that Doherty and Woods were killed by mortar fire. Forty operators armed with rifles and light-machine guns can neither stop mortar rounds nor determine from where the mortar is being fired. The only thing the CIF would have done had they gotten to the annex before 0515 is created more targets and overcrowded the consulate. Does this jump out at anyone else? |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2013-05-05 05:51 |
| #3 Well, I cannot speak for the AFRICOM CIF force in 2012, but - way back in the early 1980's - I know how things worked in the 82nd Airborne Division. My perspective then was as War Plans Officer for one brigade of the 82nd. And - I will guess that a US Special Forces Company designated as CIF will operate the same way. Your overall unit is designated a "Ready Force". Within that unit, you have an element that is designated the "Initial Ready Force" - and it is IN FACT sitting at the airfield, next to full-prepared, fueled and armed US Air Force aircraft, with aircrews sleeping within 100 meters - and if the National command Authority said "go" - the wheels of the first aircraft would be off the ground within 120 minutes. In Emergency Deployment Readiness Exercise tests, the "IRC" (Initial Ready Company") was usually off the ground within 75 minutes. It would make no sense at all to even have an regional Army Component CIF designated unless you also had both transport and CAP air assets also designated and on ready status. A small CIF would probably not deploy via C-17, which would be much larger than needed. But - I am ignorant of current airlift assets available in the Mediterranean Theater. I would not expect a small ready force to plan to close the last 30 miles to an URGENT objective by road, within a potentially hostile country. The risk of that would outweigh the risk of inserting by parachute. Ideally, rotary wing aircraft would be supplied from some nearby source (carrier group?) to fly air-landed element from airfield to mission objective area. In all cases, the "waterfall cascade" concept of notifications from top command to lowest execution unit should not be sequential. The military - particularly in reaction force situations - uses the concept of a "warning order" that goes out as soon as potential deployment situation is identified. A warning order should flow from top to bottom in about 30 minutes these days. It just designates the forces to participate, gives them a rough target location, and perhaps sets in progress an immediate relocation to a mission-specific jump-off point. A more detailed Operations Order then follows - but - you do NOT wait for the full OPORD to begin deployment to the target area. At least one company from each Ranger Battalion, and the IRC from the 82nd Airborne Division can insert into ANY SPOT ON EARTH within about 15 hours of an execution order - with a full battalion inserted within 24 hours - and that is deploying from the continental USA. Within their regions, each regional command can probably ROUTINELY insert their primary reaction force element into any spot within their region within 6-8 hours. That's in worst case, and includes niceties such as clearing overflight routes through national airspace. For Libya, approach could be over international waters, removing an hour or two of necessary "dwell time". Billy Birdzell's comments sound like they came from the perspective of a bureaucrat talking about routine deployment of an isolated military unit. His comments did not sound like they were taking into account the way that Joint Quick Reaction Forces are staged and deployed. And - I am sure that QRF's are particularly prepared for incidents occurring on anniversaries of 9-11. There would be one valid excuse for an AFRICOM QRF not staging toward a developing incident in Libya - and that would be if a more serious "hot spot" threat had also been identified elsewhere - and the CIF was given that other threat as a higher-priority stand-by target. But - I have no suggestion of this. |
| Posted by: Lone Ranger 2013-05-05 03:18 |
| #2 Above: 9-11 years commissioned service, not TIG. My bad. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2013-05-05 01:46 |
| #1 The person in the interview is a clown and I am incredibly disappointed in the news for not using Google. If the author's current knowledge of Tier-1, and Tier-2 Special Forces, In-extremis Force opns, and Non-Combatant Evacuation (NEO) planning is based on Google searches and hypothetical "Pentagon" timelines, I too am "incredibly disappointed". The name calling speaks for itself. As an aside, USMC time-in-grade (TIG) for promotion from Captain to Major is 9-11 years. Appears the author may have left the service as a Captain. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2013-05-05 01:37 |