Weather reporting indicates the Clackamus is well above flood stage. From the attached imagery, what other 'weighted' assumptions might we derive regarding local area travel ?| Submit your comments on this article |
| Government |
| DNI Clapper: Ukraine not an Intelligence Community failure. |
| 2014-03-12 |
| [The Hill] U.S. intelligence did not fail ahead of Russia's Crimean invasion, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said Monday. "I have lived through some genuine intelligence failures in my career, and this was not a failure by any stretch," Clapper said in an interview with WTOP. Still living through one at NSA, and unfortunately receiving a senior grade paycheck. Clapper was disputing contentions by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and others that the U.S. was taken by surprise when Russia invaded Ukraine to take control of Crimea. “The fact is, Mr. Secretary, it was not predicted by our intelligence. That is well known, which is another massive failure because of our total misreading of the intentions of Vladimir Putin,” McCain said to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel at a hearing last week. Clapper, however, told WTOP the intelligence community offered a warning ahead of time. Not "predicted" but a warning was issued "ahead of time"..... ? A curious train of logic, assessment, and dissemination. “We tracked [the situation in Ukraine] pretty carefully and portrayed what the possibilities were and certainly portrayed the difficulties we'd have, because of the movements of Russian troops and provided anticipatory warning of their incursion into Crimea," Clapper said. "We were following closely the political and economic developments in Ukraine. We spoke to it in our statement for the record at the time and as the situation unfolded with the Russians,” he added. Russia’s intervention in Ukraine has been condemned by the United States and other European countries, but Russian President Vladimir Putin does not appear eager to back down in the Crimean Peninsula. Clapper said that the situation was “not a throwback to the Cold War, but it certainly reminds one of the vestiges of the Cold War.” The intelligence chief called Putin a “product of the Cold War.” Profound Jim, quite profound. “He's a former KGB officer, and I think he has a grand view of greater Russia, and he attaches great importance to the 'near abroad,' which is those countries that were a part of the Soviet Union,” Clapper said. Information easily available at Wikipedia. How about providing some actionable intelligence, some indications and warnings [I&W] ? |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #12 Nailed it you did. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2014-03-12 15:06 |
| #11 From the attached imagery, what other 'weighted' assumptions might we derive regarding local area travel ? In that case, it's moot. As in horse-gone-close barn door. "Weighted actionable intelligence" is along the lines of "here's the possible events ranged in likelihood of happening based on current intelligence, combined with history of the actors involved, environmental factors, etc." Sort of the difference between being told that you could be in front of a bunch of senior NCOs who will likely be tired and cranky due to staying the night in a cheap motel and having to be at a briefing at 0500, possibly hung-over from a get-together the night before, and by reputation, full of themselves and their rank, and actually walking into a room of SNCOs who are cranky, hung-over, and full of themselves and their rank without, being having been told about it. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2014-03-12 14:39 |
| #10 I think the "failure" is they expected Putin to act like Russia did before and roll tanks in ah la Stalin style and like Putin did in Georgia. The PMC method didn't cross their minds and that is what caught them by surprise. Masterful stroke by Putin, but no real surprise to those that have been watching him play rope-a-dope with our president and his lackey failures in the State Department. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2014-03-12 13:43 |
| #9 You must have missed the "End of History" memo, P2K. None of that stuff matters anymore. At least not for the right sort of people. I interpret DNI Clapper's statement to mean some low-level analyst called this exactly, but he was ignored because the report didn't fit The Narrative. Besides, White House and State are busy with their own issues. You don't have to be a rocket surgeon to expect the Russians will react to a disturbance on their border, especially if it involves strangling their access to the Med. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2014-03-12 13:30 |
| #8 Not "predicted" but a warning was issued "ahead of time"..... ? Who knew Sarah Palin was a intel specialist? The intelligence chief called Putin a “product of the Cold War.” More like a product of a real world with 4000 years of real world history and several hundred years of Russian history. Not to be confused with urbanite academics who believe the world didn't exist before their tenure (see - Academic Creationism - and the "World is Anew" made in their own form). |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2014-03-12 12:08 |
| #7 DCI to Obama: The Russians are planning to annex Crimea. Obama: What's the par on this one again? |
| Posted by: Jack Salami 2014-03-12 10:52 |
| #6 Weather reporting indicates the Clackamus is well above flood stage. From the attached imagery, what other 'weighted' assumptions might we derive regarding local area travel ? |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2014-03-12 10:48 |
| #5 "Weighed actionable intelligence," to be more correct. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2014-03-12 10:12 |
| #4 #3 Documenting all possible futures does not provide actionable intelligence. KBK That is correct. From those "futures" [or scenarios] however, predictive analysis can be derived and an assessment can potentially be made which will lead to "actionable intelligence." It can be a complex process. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2014-03-12 09:47 |
| #3 Documenting all possible futures does not provide actionable intelligence. There are a lot of lousy market analysts who play that game. They are never wrong. Drop the subscription. (I wish.) |
| Posted by: KBK 2014-03-12 09:39 |
| #2 Clapper: Ukraine was not an intelligence failure And we'll whine until everybody admits it. |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2014-03-12 03:53 |
| #1 |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2014-03-12 01:46 |